“Assessment of countries’ international investment activity in the context of ensuring economic security”

For the vast majority of countries, creating a favorable investment environment, which determines the possibility of attracting foreign capital, is a prerequisite for economic growth, addressing issues of national interests and a sufficient level of economic se- curity. The presented article aims to assess the development of international investment activities to ensure countries’ investment security as components of economic security. Using multidimensional evaluation methods, construction of complex indicators, methods of statistical grouping, measurement of stochastic relationships, the integrated level of investment security of Central and Eastern European countries is determined. The assessment results showed that such countries as Estonia, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania have the highest level of investment security and are among the countries that have strengthened their investment secu- rity positions over the period. The countries’ evaluation shows that 46% of the countries surveyed were classified as countries with a safe level of investment development. According to the results of correlation analysis, it was determined that the Investment Security Index is more correlated with the state of the investment climate of the coun- try; in the group of Central and Eastern European countries, there is a close correlation with the level of investment attractiveness, which means that for these countries, mac- roeconomic stability and stable dynamics of socio-economic growth are the factors determining investment opportunities. The obtained results should be considered to identify the basic risks of the investment environment. investment. For countries with in-sufficient amount of investment sources, it is preferable to attract foreign investment, which becomes a prerequisite for economic growth and solving many social and economic problems, particularly securing national interests and a high level of economic security. Thus, the formation of favorable investment climate, increased investment process, and attractiveness of individual sectors and territories are the main determinants that create the conditions for providing the country with investment resources. Accordingly, their assessment and monitoring are relevant in terms of forming a favorable and safe investment environment.


INTRODUCTION
In contemporary conditions of world economic development, the rapid growth of foreign investment turned out to be the most important factor and simultaneously resulted from globalization and strengthening of integration. Almost all sectors and fields of the economy have a real need for a significant amount of investment resources; so many countries' development depends directly on global flows of foreign direct investment. For countries with insufficient amount of investment sources, it is preferable to attract foreign investment, which becomes a prerequisite for economic growth and solving many social and economic problems, particularly securing national interests and a high level of economic security. Thus, the formation of favorable investment climate, increased investment process, and attractiveness of individual sectors and territories are the main determinants that create the conditions for providing the country with investment resources. Accordingly, their assessment and monitoring are relevant in terms of forming a favorable and safe investment environment.
The study's main purpose is to determine the directions of international investment activities development in the world in terms of investment security.
The objectives of the study are: • identification of trends and patterns of international investment activities development; • research of the essence and specific features of the "investment security of the country" concept, which determines the features of its level assessment; • development of tools for quantitative assessment and analysis of the investment security level, which is mainly based on the multidimensional evaluation methodology; • development of integrated Investment Security Index, substantiation of its structure and features of calculation; • assessment of the countries investment security level, in particular a sample of Central and Eastern European countries, using the proposed methodological tools; • identification of factors that influence the formation of the countries investment security level and allow to determine the risks of the investment component of security.
The structure of the study is presented in the following sections. Section 1 contains a descriptive analysis of the relevant literature on the development of investment processes, investment attractiveness, and the formation of the investment climate regarding socio-economic development and competitiveness. It also comprises a comparative assessment of international rankings, which consider a system of factors related to the formation of countries' investment attractiveness and their positions in the global economic environment. Section 2 contains the methodological tools for assessing the level of the investment component of economic security. Section 3 is devoted to the assessment of trends and patterns of international investment processes development, contains the results of integrated investment security indices calculations by sample of countries (109 countries), determination of Central and Eastern European countries' positions by the level of investment security, results of grouping the countries by investment security level, assessment of factors influencing the investment security level. The last section contains conclusions based on the results of the calculations.

LITERATURE REVIEW
The development of international investment activity has been studied for many decades by scientists around the world. Bailey (2005) provides an overview of financial markets, focusing on investment's main economic principles. Molyneux and Valdez (2013), in their work "Introduction to global financial markets," comprehensively investigated commercial and investment processes, particularly those on the markets of the developing countries. They also analyzed the factors and consequences of modern global financial crises. Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), according to which an annual ranking of countries in the world has been compiled by the World Economic Forum since 1995. The index consists of 12 subindexes, which are divided into 4 groups: enabling environment (institutions, infrastructure, ICT adoption, macroeconomic stability); human capital (health skills); markets (product market, labor market, the financial system, market size); innovation ecosystem (business dynamism and innovation capability) (World Economic Forum, 2018).
Human Development Index (HDI) is an index for comparative assessment of poverty, literacy, education, life expectancy, health, social security, longevity, ecology, crime level, and human rights adherence. The index was developed in 1990 and has been used since 1993 by the UN in annual reports (UNDP, 2018).
The rating positions of CEEC, according to these indexes, are demonstrated in Table 1.

METHODS
To determine the level of investment security of the world's countries, the study proposes a methodological approach for assessing the economic security investment component, which involves the implementation of the following stages: • to define the essence and structure of the integrated Investment Security Index; • to form a sample of countries according to which the analysis and evaluation will be carried out; • to form a system of input parameters according to a sample of countries for a certain period of retrospection; • to choose a method for standardizing input parameters to bring them to a comparative form and include them in the corresponding integral indexes; • to determine the weight of individual parameters and select the aggregation form for the source index; • to assess and analyze the world's countries by the level of investment security; • to determine the features and patterns of countries' development from the position of forming a sufficient level of investment security; • to determine the limit values of indexes, which enables them to be used as criteria for safety or danger zones.
Based on the conducted research, it is established that investment security as one of the components of the country's economic security is a complex characteristic that determines: • first, the ability of the national economic system to attract, accumulate and maintain sufficient investment resources; • second, the ability of the national economic system to effectively use the attracted investment resources to ensure sustainable economic growth and a high level of the country's competitiveness; • third, the level of independence and self-sufficiency of the national economic system according to which social and economic stability is ensured, technological modernization of the economy takes place, and living standards and well-being of the population are ensured.
Thus, the definition of investment security as the achieved cumulative level of domestic and foreign investments, on the one hand, and the state in which the optimal level of national and foreign investment is achieved for the economy, determines the features of assessing the level of investment security.
With this in mind, an integrated assessment of an investment security level is proposed, which is quantitatively expressed by an index with the following structure (Table 2).
Thus, it is proposed to distinguish in the structure of the integrated Investment Security Index three components-sub-indexes, each of which expresses certain features and is characterized by a separate set of indicators. A system of indicators that form sub-indices, including both complex indicators (ratings) and individual quantitative individual parameters, characterize the features of countries' investment development and patterns of macroeconomic dynamics. The main requirement for individual parameters is not an absolute form of measurement but a relative expression through time comparisons (relative values of dynamics) or spatial relationships (relative values of comparison or intensity), which enables to take into account the size of the national economic system and conduct a comparative analysis of their development in terms of trends and patterns of formation of the investment security level.
Thus, while developing the integrated Investment Security Index, the following subindices were identified: Investment climate (S1), Investment attractiveness (S2), and Investment activity (S3).  The investment climate is a subindex that includes assessing the most influential indexes and ratings of countries. Each of the mentioned indexes has its main focus, particularly on reflecting the state of affairs regarding property rights and their management, ease of opening and running a business, outsourcing attractiveness, investment potential, overall competitiveness, etc. Therefore, each of them does not fully disclose the country's investment climate by itself, but they complement each other and give a comprehensive image of the overall level of quality of the investment climate as a complex category.

Subindexes Indicators Type of indicator
Investment attractiveness is a subindex consisting of estimates of the most important macroeconomic indicators for investors that characterize the trends in economic development, namely the growth rate of GDP; GDP per capita; level of inflation; unemployment rate; share of exports in GDP.
Investment activity is a sub-index that characterizes the intensity of investment activity in the country. It includes relative indicators that consider the level of attraction of external investment resources and the development of domestic investment over a certain period. It includes the share of foreign direct investment in GDP, the share of gross capital accumulation in the economy in GDP, the share of foreign direct investment in gross capital accumulation, and the ratio between domestic and foreign investment.
The study formed a sample of 170 countries eval- In the research, the most widespread method of linear aggregation that means the summation of weighted and normalized individual indicators was applied:

Assessment of trends and patterns of international investment processes development
First of all, it should be noted that the dynamics and structure of global investment flows are undulating, which is due to the uneven cyclical development of the world economic system. Since the early 1970s and in 2018, global investment flows have undergone one upward trend: from the early 1990s to 2007, and two downward trends: from the early 1990s to the present time. Thus, in 2015-2016, there was a slight recovery in global FDI, but this trend was unstable due to an increase in global political instability, military conflicts in several countries, and lack of a clear understanding of trends in the further development of the world economy. In 2018, global foreign direct investment totaled USD 1.29 trillion, which is 13% less than in 2017 (USD 1.43 trillion) and 30.5% lower than in 2016 (USD 1.87 trillion). To a large extent, this decline is because in the past three years, multinational companies in the United States have dramatically increased the volume of repatriation of profits accumulated abroad and a decrease in the cost of cross-border mergers and acquisitions and corporate restructuring.
Of particular interest is the dynamics of the distribution of FDI inflows and outflows in a country group by the level of economic development.
It should be noted that the share of FDI in different groups of countries is characterized by certain changes that occurred after the financial and economic crisis of 2007. Thus, in 2018, almost half (54%) of global FDI fell on developing countries, 43% -developed countries, and 2.6% belonged to countries with economies in transition.
Analyzing the trend of FDI development in individual countries, it should be noted that the interest of investors in developing countries is growing from year to year. Thus, in 2014, FDI flows to these countries exceeded foreign capital flows to developed countries for the first time in the world economy's history. This is largely because this group of countries could successfully counteract the impact of unfavorable conditions of the world economy in the post-crisis period and increased competition between these countries for attracting foreign capital. In 2018, FDI inflows remained stable at USD 706 billion. The increase was only 2% compared to the previous year in 2017, which means a gradual recovery in FDI inflows after falling by 14% to USD 646 billion in 2016. The most popular among investors is the countries of East Asia, namely China and India, which have a huge economic potential and are the most attractive for investment.
As for developed countries, it should be noted that over the past 10 years, FDI inflows to these countries decreased by 27% and in 2018 reached the lowest level (USD 557 billion) after the global financial and economic crisis. It should also be noted that after 2015-2016, the trend of FDI growth changed dramatically when the annual inflow of investment exceeded USD 1 trillion. This situation was caused by a significant decrease in investment flows to Europe by 73% to only USD 100 billion in the United States (-18%), there was also a reduction in investment to USD 226 billion.
In countries with economies in transition, direct investment inflows continued to decline in 2018 to USD 34 billion., which was USD 34 billion less than in 2017. This is one of the lowest figures in the past 10 years and almost 50% lower than in 2016 (USD 64 billion). This decline can be explained primarily by the geopolitical situation's uncertainty and insufficient investment activity in the natural resources sector. Also, the decline in FDI flows to countries in transition resulted from a sharp drop in investment inflows in the Russian Federation, which was only 50% compared to 2017. The reduction in investment affected most of the CIS countries.
Despite the global trend in recent years to reduce financial investments, FDI is carried out in Central and Eastern Europe, for which the problem of attracting foreign capital is quite relevant. The determining factor in the dynamics of FDI in these countries is the rapid demonstration of the economy's openness, the liberalization of the regulatory system, and the high rate of market transformation of the economy. It should be noted that the inflow of FDI to CEE countries is unstable and is subject to the influence of geopolitical factors and changes in the situation on the world markets. Thus, after the global financial crisis, FDI flows to these countries gradually increased until 2013 (USD 79.2 billion), but they failed to reach the pre-crisis level of USD 155.5 billion. From 2013 to the present time, the amount of accumulated FDI has decreased by 24% due to the instability of economic growth in the EU countries. In 2018, the share of this region in the global volume of attracted direct investment amounted to 4.6%, i.e., USD 60.12 billion, which is 14% (USD 9.20 billion) lower than the figure of 2017 and 18% (USD 14.03 billion) lower than the figure of 2016. This capital is largely concentrated in four countries: Poland (USD 11.47 billion or 19%), Hungary (USD 6.38 billion or 10.6%), Russia (USD 13.32 billion or 22%), and the Czech Republic (USD 9.48 billion or 15.8%). It accounts for about three-quarters of the total volume of foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern Europe.
Thus, the intensity of investment flows in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe is quite low. The region's potential for attracting foreign investment remains largely untapped. Considering this, the main task should be to create a stimulating investment climate to increase the interest of foreign investors in investing in the real economy, but at the same time, serious attention should be paid to ensuring national security. All this will contribute to the effective investment and innovation development of the countries of this region.

Assessment of the economic security investment component
Using the proposed tools, assessing the integrated investment security indexes for the sample countries was carried out.   According to the subindexes, the best position is for Estonia, according to Subindex 1. Investment climate (17 th place), Hungary and Slovenia, according to Subindex 2. Investment attractiveness (8 th and 9 th places), and both Estonia and Russia, according to Subindex 3. Investment activity (35 th and 41 st places).
The calculated indexes were used as indicators of danger in the aspect of investment processes development. Namely, the Investment Security Index's average level was calculated (0.52 in 2018), which enabled to divide countries into two groups (with a relatively safe and dangerous level of the investment component of security). As a result of calculating the standard deviation of the Investment Security Index (0.12 in 2018) and the Student's criterion, borderlines were determined to identify countries with an optimal level of investment development and a critically dangerous one. The distribution results are shown in Table 5.
Thus, among the countries studied, 46% are characterized by ISI values above the global average, which made it possible for them to be classified as countries with a safe level of investment development, among which Singapore and the Netherlands have ISI scores above 0.75, which enabled them to be characterized as countries with an optimal level of investment security. 54% of countries are in the group with a dangerous level (ISI below the global average), of which two countries have a fatal level of danger. The countries in this group are mainly developing countries. As for the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, 10 countries that are developed countries and are mem- bers of the EU are characterized by a relatively safe level of investment development, 5 countries, of which only Croatia is a developed EU country, and other countries are countries with economies in transition and characterized by a relatively dangerous level of development of investment processes.
According to the study results, Ukraine has the lowest rating of the Investment Security Index among CEEC, even in the group of countries with a dangerous level of investment development. This means that in the short and medium term, without the introduction of urgent effective measures to improve the country's investment status,  It should be noted that the more the ISI value approaches 1, the higher the country's ability to accumulate and rationally use investment resources, which determines its ability to increase the level of its scientific, technical, and intellectual potential, implement expanded reproduction of fixed capital, maintain economic competitiveness and guaranteed GDP growth at the level of socio-economic development and international cooperation, create strategic reserves, preserve and restore natural resources, and ensure environmental standards at a safe level.
To identify the factors that determine the level of security, a correlation analysis was conducted for the sample of countries under study, separately for the group of countries in Central and Eastern Europe and each country in this group. The results are presented in Table 6.
So, according to a sample of all countries, ISI is more correlated with the state of the country's in-vestment climate, which in the study was determined by the positions of countries in key international ratings and has a weak correlation with many other subindices. In addition to the investment climate level for the CEEC group, a close correlation was found with the level of investment attractiveness, which is determined by key macroeconomic indicators. In other words, for these countries, macroeconomic stability and stable dynamics of socio-economic growth determine the investment opportunities of countries. There was no correlation with the subindex of investment activity, according to which CEEC have the lowest rating positions. As for individual countries in this group, the investment climate level is closely related to the state of investment security in countries such as the Czech Republic, Latvia, Russia, Slovakia, and Ukraine. Significant investment attractiveness determines the state of investment security in all CEEC countries, except for Albania and Moldova (a moderate correlation of indices characterizes them). The level of investment activity is characterized by the highest differentiation of the correlation coefficient values with the ISI. Thus, if there is no correlation between ISI and S3 for the entire CEEC group, then in countries such as Albania, Croatia, Moldova, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine, the level of investment activity, which determines the intensity and nature Thus, for CEEC, among the investment security risks, we should first note the possible deterioration of the overall macroeconomic dynamics, which will negatively affect investors' investment attractiveness and activity, in particular foreign ones. The instability of the macroeconomic environment and the persistence of development imbalances in the most developed EU countries also reduce the overall level of investment attractiveness and affect investment activity indicators.
In general, based on a preliminary study of the main indicators of investment attractiveness, the basic risks of the investment environment were identified and justified, including: • risks of the macroeconomic environment (increase in the level of inflation, the country's public debt, violation of the stability of the national exchange rate, etc.); • industry risks associated with the complexity of capital penetration in certain areas. Thus, according to the UN report, in 2018, 74 out of 112 (66%) investment policy measures are related to liberalization, in particular in such sectors as agriculture, mass media, mining, energy, retail, finance, logistics, transport, telecommunications, and Internet business; • national security risks: setting new limits on foreign ownership in certain industries; introducing restrictions on the purchase of residential real estate; and introducing new requirements for the use of labor, including in public procurement; • institutional risks that lead to the need to strengthen the regulatory framework for the verification of foreign investments, in particular: new rules on disclosure of information, an increase in the statutory verification period or the introduction of new sanctions for non-compliance with notification obligations, a special mechanism for the verification of foreign investments; • political and regulatory risks manifested in the termination or non-completion of many international mergers and acquisitions (in 2018, 22 agreements for more than USD 50 million were blocked or cancelled), termination of transactions for reasons of national security, competition, or delays in obtaining permission from the host country authorities.

CONCLUSION
The article implements the level of investment security as an important component of economic security of countries based on the application of existing methods of multidimensional assessment, which revealed patterns of distribution of countries by investment security, classify countries by groups for equal security, compare positions and intensity of their change, systematize factors, forming the level of investment security.
The study allowed us to achieve the following results: the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are significantly behind the leading countries, except for Estonia, which is in the top-10. The vast majority of countries are included in the first half of the rating. As shown by the factor analysis, the investment climate and its overall level are the most significant factors in ensuring investment security. Despite the country's differences in CEEC, unambiguous and more significant correlation is found in the component that takes into account the overall macroeconomic indicators of countries' development; therefore, they are primarily the main determinants that constrain further more intensive growth of investment attractiveness, and thus reduce the level of investment security. In the aspect of ensuring investment security, it is advisable to take into account the risks of the investment environment, which include not only macroeconomic risks but also industrial, institutional, political, and regulatory ones.