Migration aspirations of territory population : A case study of Ukraine ”

The level of positive migration aspirations of the population is determined by the unfavorable socio-economic environment and ineffective management of territory development, in particular the level of deprivation, including labor, security and living conditions. The paper aims to assess the impact of different components of deprivation on the spread of migration aspirations and create the landscape of a territory migration capacity. The methodological tool of the study is a sociological survey (a case study of Lviv Oblast, Ukraine) using a questionnaire (self-administration), which covered more than 500 people. Processing of results is carried out using SPSS software. The results of the sociological survey across migration vectors show the cause-effect relation between positive external aspirations and deprivation components. According to the assessment, the EU countries vector (72.0%) has the highest level of positive migration aspirations by income deprivation, and domestic migration vector – the lowest level (41.0%). The highest deprivation levels among socio-economic, environmental, and medical-demographical conditions for ineffective management of Lviv Oblast was detected for educational services with the level of 3.6 out of 5 possible, moderate level – for living and environmental conditions (2.9 each), and the lowest one for medical services (2.7). The spread of deprivation components at the territory according to the level of positive migration aspirations analysis shown that the highest deprivation levels in Lviv Oblast are peculiar to components such as the quality of medical services (43.4%), income (36.5%), and living conditions (35.1%). This study is of practical value for forming landscape of territory migration capacity including weighed migration aspirations and socio-economic deprivation levels.
AcknowledgmentsThe study has been conducted within the framework of Applied Research “Financial determinants of the provision of economic growth in the regions and territorial communities based on behavioral economy” with the support of the National Research Foundation of Ukraine (M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the grant Reg. No. 2020.02/0215, 2020-2022).


INTRODUCTION
The complex research of migration processes requires the use of a twotiered analytical approach with singling out the potential and actual migration. The real dimension of migration research emphasizes the fact of movement -its status, objective, and space-time coordinates. The potential dimension stipulates revealing migration causes that can be manifested both in personal psychological-behavioral features and through the impact of conditions of the external (micro, meso, and macro) environment.
The analysis of potential migration is a necessary stage to substantiate the efficiency of migration policy based on preventive grounds and understanding of priorities for improving the internal conditions of human development with preserving the right to choose and freedom of movement of a person.
Positive migration aspirations as current indicators of migration potential unlike other potential categories reflect a combination of desires and reflections of the ability to relocate due to the influence of human development. It is especially important to find out the signs of deprivation assessing population and possibility of living in an eco-friendly and safe environment with access to high quality health care, education, employment, and a decent income. Assessing the relationship between migratory aspirations and deprivation in terms of these parameters is the basis for identifying risk determinants of human loss.

LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESIS
Reflections in the potential migration studies constitute the under researched concept. If desires display emotions, the reflections are the result of comprehension of interactions in the social system. Migration reflections disclose the migrants' perception and identification of themselves as migrants. People understand that through migration, they can face numerous stresses with the impact on their health, including the loss of cultural norms, religious customs, social support systems, and they will be forced to adapt to a new culture and change the concept of personal identity (Bhugra & Becker, 2005).
Examining the migration needs and motives is the essential direction of migration studies. Determining the migration needs and motives is important not only at the stage of evaluating its capacity but also in revealing the impact on the transformation of temporary migration into the long-term one (Kushnirovich, 2010). Yet, the major tasks of determining the migration needs and motives are to classify them with the analysis of the impact on migration in the systemic interaction and to specify the regulation opportunities through improving the conditions of addressing some of them (e.g., change in wages, safety, and arrangement of social networks) (Reichlová, 2005). Intellectualization that generates the "brain drain" is among the relevant aspects of researching the migration needs and motives. Therefore, in addition to the financial safety needs, the impact of self-actualization and opportunities for study and development with an appropriate resource base is growing for certain social-professional groups (Dohlman et al., 2019). Motivation for migration is also reviewed by different levels of influence -macro (political aspects), meso (economic), and micro (social networks) (Fichtnerová & Vacková, 2021).
Ability and willingness to migrate are the specific terms that provide additional details to examining the migration capacity. Carling and Schewel (2018) noted that if migration is considered, it is the aggregate result of aspirations realization and ability to migrate. Yet, it is worth understanding that a person can have the ability but lack the desire to migrate, so the category was considered in connection with human desires (Carling & Schewel, 2018). The willingness shows an intention to migrate in the nearest future. It emphasizes the migration tempology and reduces impact of external factors because the migration decision is made fast.
The methodology of researching the causes of migration (factors, determinants, drivers) is actively developing. The factors constitute the list (system) of all environmental properties that can affect the object. The determinants specify impact of factors on the object. In some studies, the migration factors/determinants are considered in a comprehensive manner, e.g., dividing into "push" and "pull", which in various combinations determine the conditions, circumstances, and environment of forming the migration capacity (Hear et  The activity-oriented aspect of potential migration studies is formed by the research of migration decisions. The decisions are made in the interconnection of desires (emotions), social relations, and managerial impacts (policy) (Meyer, 2018).
Migration experience and information conditions that can be complete, imperfect, or overloading have a substantial impact on decisions (Balaz et al., 2014). Migration decisions can be quick (high willingness with intentions implementation) or slow, so they can be influenced by the changes in the conditions of the human development environment.
Frequency and regularity of making decisions shape the migration behavior that confirms the fact of relocation or abandoning the idea. Migration behavior reflects the satisfaction a person needs through migration (Genkova, 2021).
The paper focuses attention on migration aspirations. It is quite a complex concept in potential migration studies. The methodology of researching migration aspirations began to develop actively in the 1990s. Yet, its improvement based on consideration of new challenges and territorial and social peculiarities remains to be relevant nowadays. Quaglia and Cobb (1996) provided the most fundamental definition of aspirations that can be adapted to the migration domain. It was argued whether aspirations reveal the human capacity to set goals for the future, having the desire to achieve them and to work actively to that end (Quaglia & Cobb, 1996;Yakovleva et al., 2019).
Migration aspirations constitute an antagonistic category, although they are considered the conviction that migration is a better solution than continuing to stay in the present location (Castles et al., 2019). Migration aspirations are closely related to the desire to migrate but can be translated into action; they stipulate the pulling of undetermined persons in terms of migration into the migration flow (Sadova, 2019).
Migration aspirations combine the reality of migration and unrealized desires because they include hopes, plans, ambitions, and goals that are often temporary and they cause the aspiration-attainment gap without the support of other factors (Gutman & Akerman, 2008). Scheibelhofer (2018) mentioned that aspirations were considered as a temporality with the combination of the present and the future. It is the variable category; therefore, the migration aspirations were examined through the prism of generation and reconfigura-tion in time (Wang & Collins, 2020). Aspirations are, to some extent, the cultivation of migrants' understanding of the future that depends on their assets, opportunities, and relational interactions (Boccagni, 2017).
Carling and Mjelva (2021) suggested the most multifaceted methodology of evaluating migration aspirations. A set of tools of qualitative interviewing was used to reveal the desire to migrate through a mix of specifying questions ("Do you want to migrate next year?", "Do you plan to emigrate?", "Do you plan to be living in your community in five years?") in relation to work experience. Migration aspirations were studied profoundly, as questions were distributed in the way to emphasize potential categories of contemplation ("Have you recently seriously thought about moving abroad for a long time or forever?"), preferences ("Would you like to move from current location to the other in the next 10 years?)", desire ("How much do you want to live in another country, where the language differs from your native one?"), necessity ("Do you feel that you will have to move to another country to find a job and support yourself or your family?"), planning ("Do you plan to leave for another country forever this year?), intention ("Do you intend to leave for a job or living in another country the next 3 years?"), expectations ("Do you think you will ever return to your country of origin?"), probability ("How likely it is that you leave the current place of residence the next three years?"), etc.
The methodologies of evaluating the potential migration categories in relation to other phenomena and processes are also relevant. For example, Cai et al. (2014) suggested the methodology of evaluating the relationship between subjective wellbeing and desire to migrate to another country based on the Gallup World Poll. Ivlevs (2014) stated that the relationship between happiness and desire to migrate is essential. It is argued that the lowest level of desire to migrate is detected for persons with average happiness rates, while the desire to migrate grows for low and high happiness rates. It is a valuable observation that allows talking about the "polarity" of the impact of the human development environment on migration aspirations.
Ryndzak (2019) made one of the most essential methodological developments of the migration capacity evaluation with the impact of employment and labor conditions. It was suggested to adopt the methodology of calculating the migration desires index tested for unemployed with singling out "solid" migrants as persons planning to work abroad in the future. All research of migration aspirations is based on sociological methods, and the reliability of results depends on the quality of conducted surveys with the attraction of public and international organizations. Therefore, the relevance of scientific research on the expansion of the methodology of evaluating migration aspirations remains to be essential with the need to introduce joint approaches to sociological surveys.
Remembering that migration aspirations constitute an interdisciplinary evaluating category, it is worth emphasizing that in economic studies, the way they are influenced by the conditions of the human development environment with consideration of subjective evaluations was considered. Clark et al. (2011;2014) described the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), which was tested in practice by the migration policy of Great Britain and is among complex indicators for evaluating such an impact. The following parameters are evaluated when calculating the deprivation level based on sample surveys of households: lack of means of subsistence -income deprivation; lack of access to a decent job -employment deprivation; low level of education and qualification -education, skills, and training deprivation; poor health and nutrition -health deprivation; dissatisfaction with environmental conditions -environmental deprivation; high crime rates -security deprivation; barriers to obtaining housing and necessary services -comfort deprivation. In this regard, it is very important to assess the impact of different deprivation components (income, labor conditions, security and living conditions, as well as the quality of education, medicine, and environment) on spread of migration aspirations and create the landscape of territory migration capacity. Based on previous research, the following hypothesis is put forward: High level of social and economic deprivation has a significant impact on forming positive migration aspirations and high level of migration capacity of a territory.

METHODOLOGY
Contemporary approaches to analyzing the migration capacity of a territory (country, region, settlement) mostly stipulate the stepwise evaluation of migration aspirations by selected parameters. Their selection depends on time criteria, trip objective, and period of stay abroad. Revealing the migration aspirations by sociological survey does not provide the comprehensive characteristics of migration capacity. It is worth emphasizing that approaches based on evaluation of migration aspirations eliminate the importance of the impact of human development environment factors and deprivation indicators of a territory or households with the members as potential migrants. Therefore, there is a need to integrate individual stages of existing methodologies into the complex approach to evaluating migration capacity based on the calculation of the empirical rate of migration aspirations weighted by the deprivation level of individual components. It helps to specify the threshold value of migration capacity with an opportunity to detect the marginal impact on territorial development. The rate of migration aspirations is the basis to develop predictive models of migration capacity and model the intensity of external migration, considering the changes in the level of socio-economic deprivation.
The efficiency of the mechanism of migration aspirations regulation depends on the complete, complex, and systemic nature of the implementation of migration capacity monitoring. Its major objective is to outline alternative options for minimizing the volumes of external migration of the population, the labor one, and preserving human capacity. Figure 1 shows the algorithm of informational-analytical support of diagnostics of migration aspirations as a tool to shape the monitoring of territory migration capacity by the outbound vector. The implementation of an alternative form of informational-analytical support of the migration aspirations diagnostics contributes to determining their current level and revealing the deprivation criteria and parameters of socio-economic deprivation of households and potential migrants.
Monitoring of migration aspirations stipulates the sociological survey through questionnaires (self-administration), the parameters (socio-demographic characteristics) presented in Table 1.
The survey sample covered 510 people. The people aged 25-40 (youth) with considerable labor activity experience and individual vision of their development and employment opportunities abroad accounted for 83.2% of respondents. The educational-intellectual capacity of respondents is significant -87.2% of them have higher education or scientific degree. The age group under research has certain social liabilities (family, friends, and professional contacts). The methodology of conducting a sociological survey with the view to identify migration aspirations with consideration of the deprivation levels of income, labor condi-Source: Authors' elaboration.

Figure 1. Algorithm of informational-analytical support of the diagnostics of migration aspirations
Analysis of current intensity of external migration of the population tions, security and living conditions, quality of educational and medical services, and environmental condition was tested at Lviv Oblast in Ukraine in early 2021. Based on the weighted harmonic mean that helps to transform the reference values into empirical (coefficients of deprivation and migration aspirations), the migration capacity of a territory is examined by calculating the levels of migration aspirations with consideration of deprivation indicators by the respective migration vector.
The initial research stage stipulates the establishment of the system of respective deprivation components -income, labor conditions, educational and medical services, environmental condition, security, and living condition.
To determine the deprivation rate in a certain period of time as a feature of destabilized socio-economic environment of a territory, the respective scale of respondents' satisfaction level is established, e.g., from 1 to 5. The approach to determining the general deprivation rate helps to detect in a timely manner the factors of dissatisfaction that are the stimulators of growing migration aspirations and therefore -growing migration capacity. Testing the methodological set of tools leads to forming the additional reserves of minimizing socio-economic deprivation in conditions of changing economy.
The rate of deprivation of individual components in a set period is calculated by the formula (1) Coefficients of the spread of deprivation forms are calculated by the formulas (2) and (3). The level of migration aspirations, positive and negative, in the context of deprivation components is calculated by the formulas (4)

RESULTS
To improve the methodology of determining migration aspirations weighted by the level of deprivation of individual components, in January 2021 the sociological survey was conducted in Lviv Oblast of Ukraine. It is the border region with high migration activity of the population. Based on the survey results, the levels of migration aspirations of the population are identified across deprivation components, namely income, labor conditions, satisfaction with education quality, medical services, environmen-tal conditions, security (crime rate, patrolling the streets, surveillance cameras), and living conditions (livelihood, quality of social and household services by the place of current residence).
The deprivation level was evaluated in the survey based on a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 is the highest deprivation level or complete dissatisfaction with the respective component, and 5 -alternatively, complete satisfaction. Table 2 shows that migration aspiration levels were structured by four vectors: domestic migration vector, European countries neighboring Lviv Oblast (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia), any other EU country, and any other country of the world with better conditions.
The results of the sociological survey across migration vectors show the cause-effect relation between positive external aspirations and deprivation components. Yet, a substantial impact of dissatisfaction with income or other socio-economic conditions on the growth of the level of domestic migration aspira- Unsatisfactory labor conditions in addition to low income are among the main factors stimulating external migration of the population that significantly impact migration aspirations towards the EU countries with a higher level of life. In particular, 14.25% and 13.56% of respondents with a low level of satisfaction with labor conditions expressed an intention to leave abroad (any EU or world country respectively), 15.27% of respondents -to the neighboring EU country. 16.06% of respondents with domestic migration aspirations were revealed. There is an interesting fact of the high level of migration aspirations with moderate deprivation of labor conditions, e.g. 40.42% -to the neighboring EU country, 40.63% -to any other EU country, and 41.24% -to other countries in the world with better conditions. Such evaluations show that aspirations are caused by needs of highly qualified work with decent conditions, which can be achieved only by emigration to the countries with higher socio-economic development.
It is worth emphasizing that a high dependence level is observed between external migration aspirations and deprivation of educational services quality. Thus, about 10% of respondents with low satisfaction with the quality of educational services have positive migration aspirations towards the EU countries. Meanwhile, less than a third of respondents with high educational deprivation levels have positive domestic migration aspirations. About 27% of respondents strongly satisfied with the quality of educational services show consistent migration aspirations. It shows that the youth have the desire to receive second education and emigrate for employment to Europe or other countries in the world. A large share of respondents mentions that after finishing higher education in Ukraine, they intend to fulfil their capacity abroad. Thus, 20.84% of those with low educational deprivation levels have a high level of migration aspirations towards the EU countries.
Satisfaction with the quality of medical services and healthcare system and level of migration aspirations are in a direct relationship, which is confirmed by the results of the sociological survey on the example of Lviv Oblast. Namely, 15.57% of respondents with complete deprivation of medical services quality have strong migration aspirations towards the neighboring European country against 4.79% of respondents with the highest level of satisfaction with the medical system in the region. Low quality of medical services causes positive migration aspirations towards any other country of the world with better conditions for 28.53% of respondents, and any other EU country for 26.91% of respondents. Being completely satisfied with the quality of national medicine, about 5.5% (domestic migration), 4.79% (neighboring EU countries), 5.28% (other EU countries), and 4.8% (other countries in the world with better conditions) have positive migration aspirations.
Environmental, security, and living conditions play the role of intermediary/supporting simulating factors that generate positive migration aspirations of the population. The strength of the relationship between migration aspirations and these deprivation components is not explicit and consistent compared to income or labor conditions deprivation. For example, 11.08%, 12.28%, and 9.58% of respondents with high environmental, security, and living conditions have strong migration aspirations towards neighboring EU countries. Still, a substantial share of respondents with moderate deprivation (35.62%, 40.90%, and 39.05%) also have positive migration aspirations towards European countries. Such evaluations are the reason to argue that environmental, security, and living conditions are not the main determinants of migration aspirations towards the EU or other countries.  The level of negative aspirations of domestic migration in Ukraine is higher than that of positive. Indeed, Ukrainian regions lag EU countries by the force of attracting labor migrants. The former ones are actively fighting for Ukrainian migrants, especially for employment in the segment of vocational professions. To improve the migration attractiveness of Ukraine, especially the attraction of highly qualified youth, a strategy for balancing regional labor markets and overcoming regional socio-economic and financial disparities is necessary to be developed, as well as educational-academic environment for attracting foreign students.
To determine the causal impact of socio-economic deprivation on the level of migration aspirations, an empirical indicator of deprivation components levels was calculated, as shown by Figure 3. Empirical evaluations of deprivation components are an informational-analytical ground to develop benchmarks for regulation the environment of human development, namely transformation of external migration motives, adjustment of positive migration aspirations, and therefore -minimization of generated migration capacity. In Lviv Oblast, the highest deprivation was detected for educational services with the level of 3.6 out of 5 possible. Moderate deprivation was detected for living and environmental conditions (2.9 each), and the lowest deprivation level -for medical services (2.7).
The system of the informational-analytical framework of migration capacity based on the level of migration aspirations was formed by systematic monitoring. The results were weighted by the current deprivation level of all possible components of the environment of human development.
Tracking the level of positive aspirations depending on the level of dissatisfaction with socio-economic conditions is an important stage of the monitoring. Singling out the areas of complete and partial deprivation (dissatisfaction levels) among the potential migrants is especially essential for migration policymaking, as shown by Figure 4.
The highest deprivation levels in Lviv Oblast are peculiar to such components as the quality of medical services (43.4%), income (36.5%), and living conditions (35.1%). They increase migration capacity and generate positive migration aspirations of the population. The fifth part of respondents has complete deprivation of labor conditions, and over 10% of respondents -complete deprivation of educational services quality. It is worth mentioning that partial deprivation has a big impact on forming positive migration aspirations. A considerable share of respondents (41.8% and 38.9%) is partially satisfied with security conditions, income, and living conditions. Yet, they have positive migration aspirations.

DISCUSSION
Migration aspirations constitute the psychologicalbehavioral symbiosis of a desire to relocate with setting goals, a reflection of a person's ability to relocate based on making efforts to achieve the set goals, and willingness to make a migration decision (positive or negative). The synergy of migration aspirations determines the generated capacity of migration at various spatial levels. Figure 5 shows the schematic interpretation of migration aspirations from the viewpoint of their emergence patterns.
Migration aspirations evaluation allows focusing attention on the social groups that have high reflections of ability and willingness to migrate. Sociological surveys quite often show the high level of a desire to migrate. Yet, they do not transform into any actions, and such persons are migration-passive. The category of people who have strong migration aspirations are subject to proactive migration and social protection policy because they constitute the direct risks of losing the human capacity.   ry's migration capacity. Based on the data in the matrix, alternative planning of migration policy can be carried out and programs on minimizing the positive migration aspirations can be developed.
Weighing the migration aspirations and deprivation components is an efficient tool for revealing the socio-economic impact on an ability of a territory to implement its migration capacity. Constructing the landscape of migration capacity helps to substantiate new strategic benchmarks of migration policy. If a territory is in segment "1" by the monitoring results, it shows the lowest migration capacity. Meanwhile, being in segment "9" means the highest level. Segments "4", "5", and "6" characterize the moderate migration capacity. For instance, segment "5" can be interpreted as migration capacity of non-adaptive nature, the level of which can grow depending on growing dissatisfaction of the population with respective components. It is quite possible that having got to segments from "4" to "6", migration capacity will remain to be potential but will not transfer to the category of "stable" emigrants. The migration capacity growth paces, i.e. the speed of transition from a segment with low to the segment with high capacity level, depends on efficient strategic directions, the proactive policy of addressing the changes in the deprivation components levels, and timely monitoring of migration aspirations.
Monitoring of migration capacity is based on the comprehensive evaluation of satisfaction with the conditions of human development in the form of an empirical indicator. It will contribute to evaluating the impact of deprivation on the level of migration aspirations and detecting the level of deprivation spread among youth as potential migrants, which is displayed in the weight of impact of individual dissatisfaction levels on the level of migration aspirations. It is worth noting that based on the migration aspirations coefficient, it is possible to predict the impact of deprivation on migration capacity, which is the informational-analytical ground in the process of developing the measures of timely response to critical changes in the intensity of external migration at the respective spatial level.
Such a monitoring helps to obtain a timely and complete evaluation of the level of external migration intensity, detect the changes in migration aspirations, identify the sources of financial and socio-economic deprivation, predict the level of migration aspirations with consideration of deprivation components, and determine the destructive factors leading to growing migration capacity of the territory.
Note: The numbers mark the corresponding level of a territory's migration capacity; "1" -the lowest, "9" -the highest.