“Role of government policy in food security: Economic and demographic challenges”

The state policy on food security should take into account economic (e.g., expansion of agricultural production following domestic food demand, exports, and imports) and demographic (e.g., adequacy of food reserves and production capacities of the agrosector to the pace of population growth, considering urbanization, migration, and a culture of rational consumption) challenges. Government policy should maintain the balance between the stability of the food system, economic development, and demographic changes. Therefore, this study aims to identify implicit (hidden) structural and functional relationships between these elements. The paper employs structural modeling using STATISTICA; the dataset consists of six food security, eight economic, and seven demographic indicators (using World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization databases for 2011–2021, targeting 39 countries with different levels of GDP per capita (depending on the availability of statistical data)). The results proved the direct impact of the economic variable on food security and the indirect effect of the demographic variable (demographic changes are the engine that triggers economic transformations that further affect food security). When demographic changes increase by one unit, economic development increases by 0.57 and stability of the food system by 0.454. When economic development increases by one unit, the stability of the food system increases by 0.473.


INTRODUCTION
Ensuring the country's food security is one of the goals of sustainable development of society, which is enshrined in the United Nations General Assembly Resolution "Transforming our world: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development" (United Nations, 2015).The importance of ensuring food security is recognized globally, as evidenced by the adoption and signing of various international legal documents to define the main goals and objectives for ensuring food security (FAO, 1996).This document establishes the concept of "food security" at the global level and defines strategic goals and objectives for ensuring food security worldwide (FAO, 1996).The United Nations develops a strategic framework for its activities, defining priority work areas.The latest Strategic Framework Program of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) was created in 2021 and formulates the organization's vision for a sustainable and food-secure world in the field of innovation, healthy nutrition, mitigating the effects of climate change, and supporting the transformation of rural areas by 2030 (FAO, 2021).The priority areas identified in the Strategic Framework Program of FAO aimed at solving food security problems should become a beacon for states to build a balanced policy to improve well-being in the world.According to the FAO's recommendations, governments are developing their internal strategies and programs to ensure food security.Within the framework of these strategies and programs, countries are developing measures, mechanisms, and tools to support and develop the agricultural sector, social support of the population, access to quality products, etc. Depending on the effectiveness of the developed strategies and programs, they may be adjusted periodically, considering new FAO recommendations.
For example, Azerbaijan's state policy aims to support the agricultural sector comprehensively.Subsidies cover more than 50% of the cost of mineral fertilizers needed to process one hectare of land.The state also assumes part of the costs of purchasing agricultural machinery and allocates funds for subsidies to fuel and motor oil necessary for land cultivation.In addition, the government of Azerbaijan pays great attention to the protection, restoration, and effective use of land, which made it possible to increase the area of arable land by 0.3% during 2010-2016.The increased expenditure on agriculture contributed to the rise in the added value created in agriculture and the reduction of malnutrition.In Belgium and Sweden, government policy in this area mainly focuses on preserving the biodiversity of agricultural lands (increasing the area of land allocated for organic farming production, reducing greenhouse gas emissions per production unit, and decreasing the use of antibiotics in animal husbandry).In addition, Sweden's public policy in the field of food security is focused on conserving seeds and genetic resources, which makes it possible to bring old cultivated plant varieties back into circulation.
Humanity's concern about issues related to food security is fully justified given climate change, armed conflicts, political upheavals, which entail a decrease in agricultural production, and the complication of logistics, which in turn leads to an increase in prices due to food shortages (Hamulczuk et al., 2023).

LITERATURE REVIEW
The limitation of food resources has been one of the biggest global and local problems for over a decade.Therefore, research on overcoming hunger and achieving food security is essential and relevant to ensuring society's sustainable development.One of the critical players is government policy, which can set the course of the country's development with its decisions (Aiyedogbon et al., 2022) Government policies play a crucial role in shaping the economic conditions that influence food security.Agricultural subsidies, trade policies, and investment in rural infrastructure are among the key policy instruments used to support agricultural production and enhance food access.However, the effectiveness of these policies is often undermined by economic factors, such as market volatility, income inequality, and resource constraints.For example, Tu et al. (2023) investigated that trade liberalization policies may increase food availability through imports, but they can also expose domestic producers to greater competition and price fluctuations, affecting their livelihoods and food security.Dubanych et al. (2023) focus on the role of retail trade in ensuring food security.They established that the presence of unresolved market distortions can lead to a decrease in food security.Therefore, policymakers face the challenge of balancing the need for market-oriented reforms with measures to protect vulnerable populations and promote sustainable agricultural development.Tiutiunyk et al. (2022) discovered that food security is significant for ensuring the macroeconomic stability of countries.Economic, environmental, energy, and food security are interrelated and interdependent categories, as undermining one of them entails a chain reaction of negative consequences for others (Wang et al., 2023); therefore, governments must maintain an adequate level of each element of national security to ensure the well-being of society (Romenska et al., 2024).
In the last decade, the category of "sustainable development" has gained particular importance, as it combines many different goals that aim to establish a balance between the needs of today's society and the protection of the interests of future generations.Therefore, the vectors of the state policy on ensuring food security must be coordinated with the direc-tions of the state policy on ensuring sustainable development as a whole (Brychko et al., 2023;El Fallahi et al., 2023).Scientists are actively researching food security in different countries to assess their achievement of sustainable development goals.Using the example of India, Singh and Pandey (2023) concentrated on the conceptual combination of sustainable development goals and the level of food security.Food security must be considered when developing and implementing state policy following demographic trends, including population growth, urbanization, and migration (Hoxhaj et al., 2022;Ramli et al., 2022).Kovljenić and Škorić (2023) consider various factors influencing food security, particularly demographic factors.They have studied the impact of the population on food security and established that population growth leads to food shortages.Therefore, the government needs to stimulate an increase in output or decrease fertility (Aiyedogbon et al., 2022;Götmark & Andersson, 2023).Ilychok et al. (2023) noted that rapid population growth strains food production and distribution systems, exacerbating pressure on natural resources and agricultural land.In addition to high birth rates, a security threat, including food security, is posed by migration, as it causes an additional burden on the food supply in the host country (Kuzior et al., 2020).However, this threat can be reduced by creating additional capacities in the production of products (Mullens & Shen, 2023;Kuzior et al., 2021).Kuzior et al. (2022) and Court (2022) discussed that urbanization leads to changes in dietary preferences and consumption patterns, affecting demand for food and agricultural products.Moreover, migration patterns, both internal and external, influence labor markets, remittances, and food access in sending and receiving communities.Government policies aimed at addressing demographic challenges often focus on improving family planning services, promoting rural development, and strengthening social safety nets (Shynkaruk et al., 2023;Djamal et al., 2023).However, the effectiveness of these policies depends on their alignment with broader development goals, including poverty reduction, education, and health care (Bhandari, 2023).
The relationships between the stability of the food system, economic development, and demographic changes are complex and multifaceted.The scientific literature demonstrates an interesting toolkit for analyzing the structural internal connections between these elements.For example, economic growth can lead to improved access to food and nutrition, but it can also exacerbate income inequality and environmental degradation (Bilan et al., 2019;Orlov et al., 2021;Anand & Sharma, 2023).Similarly, demographic changes, such as aging populations or youth bulges, can influence labor markets, social welfare systems, and intergenerational transfers, affecting food security dynamics in both rural and urban areas (Muharremi et al., 2022).Kuzior and Lobanova (2020) investigated the specific features of the relationship between economic, environmental, and demographic factors using the example of industrial regions.In food security research, an essential determinant is agriculture, which is considered the world's primary food source.The critical role of investing in agriculture because its financing will expand the capabilities of the agricultural sector, increasing its production to provide for a larger population (Bhowmik, 2022;Thiam & Toure, 2020;Juhászová et al., 2023).
A clear definition is an essential component of effective government food security policy.Nilsson et al. (2020), using regression analysis based on data from Chad, found that population and international aid affect agriculture in the long run, in addition to farm support programs, market prices, access to new markets, and refugee accommodation.Mason-D'Croz et al. (2019), using economic-mathematical modeling, analyzed the role of fruit and vegetable production in ensuring recommended consumption levels.They found that most of the population is underserved by fruits and vegetables, and even under optimistic socio-economic scenarios, this supply will not reach recommended levels in many countries.To solve this problem, scientists recommend implementing a systemic state policy to eliminate restrictions on producing and consuming fruits and vegetables.When forming the state policy of ensuring food security, it is essential to choose the appropriate tools for its implementation.Sampling OECD countries, Niyaz and Allahverdi (2023) concluded that soft but effective government intervention is needed from the perspective of agrarian risk and food security, one option of which is subsidies.In general, subsidization is one of the effective mechanisms of state support.For example, in Azerbaijan, subsidies support local farmers in developing grain production, purchasing seeds and seedlings, and covering part of the costs for mineral fertilizers.They help farmers improve the productivity of agriculture and increase food production.In addition, one of the priority areas of Azerbaijan's government policy is ensuring effective land use, including climate adaptation (devel-opment of crop and animal husbandry by climate change or resistance to it) (FAO, 2017).Thus, the literature analysis showed that the study of food security is necessary both in each individual country and in the world in general.Therefore, this study aims to identify implicit (hidden) structural and functional relationships between the stability of the food system, economic development, and demographic changes.

METHODOLOGY
This study used data from the World Bank (World Bank, n.d.) and FAO (FAO, n.d.) databases.These data characterize the main economic (econ1-econ8), demographic (dem1-dem7), and food security indicators (prod1-prod6).For the study, indicators were chosen according to the FAO grouping, referring to those that characterize the stability of food security to assess the impact of economic and demographic determinants on its sustainability. of GDP per capita (Appendix A).The higher the value of GDP per capita, the higher the standard of living in the country.The data are taken for the period from 2011 to 2021.
The relationships between economic, demographic, and indicators of stability of food security are studied using structural modeling appropriate for complex relationships between the studied phenomena.The main advantage of this method is that it investigates implicit relationships between the elements of a multi-level system by constructing a system of linear regression equations.In addition, factor and correlation analyses were used to select the most relevant indicators and analyze the closeness of the relationship between them.All calculations were performed in STATISTICA.
The modeling process can be conditionally divided into stages: 1. Forming a database of input data describing the studied phenomena and using the method of principal components, selecting the most relevant indicators for each group of implicit variables, and checking the absence of high correlation between the chosen variables within each group.
2. Designating latent (implicit) variables for each group of indicators that will characterize it and defining functional relationships between the explicit and implicit variables.
3. Visualizing relationships between explicit and implicit variables using a path diagram (Fig ure 1).
4. Employing STATISTICA to form and interpret the system of regression equations (1).
5. Checking the adequacy and stability of the constructed model.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Table 2 shows the results of descriptive statistics for the input data.These statistics provide a quantitative data description to understand data characteristics and distribution.
The results of descriptive statistics show that most of the selected variables have a wide range between their maximum and minimum values, which can be explained by the wide selection of the studied Note: LAT1, LAT2, LAT3 -implicit variables; x n -explicit variables; a mn and b mn -regression parameters; ε -random errors.The next step is to analyze whether the variables selected by the method of principal components (Table 3) have a strong relationship within the group.Table 4 shows the correlation matrix with paired correlation coefficients separately for each group of indicators.Having studied the results of the correlation analysis, in the group of indicators of food security stability, cereal import dependency ratio (prod3), political stability and absence of violence/terrorism (prod5), and per capita food production (prod6) were determined as the most relevant.
In the group of economic indicators, GDP per capita (econ1), agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (econ3), and personal remittances received (econ8) are the most relevant.However, econ3 and econ8 have a strong correlation between them, which is 0.77, so it was decided to replace econ8 with econ5 (unemployment, total), which is the next factor load indicator, which does not have a strong correlation with econ1 and econ3.In the demographics group, almost all indicators are relevant, so the three with the highest factor loading and uncorrelated indicators were selected: total  Thus, the preliminary analysis identified three variables in each group, which, to a greater extent, characterize the stability of food security and economic and demographic components.

Variable
The next step is the introduction of latent variables for each group of indicators, which relevant manifest variables will represent: • PROD: Cereal import dependency ratio; political stability and absence of violence/terrorism; per capita food production variability; • ECON: GDP per capita; agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added; unemployment, total; • DEM: Total population; death rate; net migration.
Figure 2 presents a graphical interpretation of functional relationships between explicit and latent (implicit) variables.
Next, Table 5 presents the results of structural modeling.
Based on the system of equations ( 2), when the level of demographic indicators increases by one unit, the level of economic indicators will increase by 0.57.At the same time, an increase in the level of demographic indicators by one unit led to a rise in the level of stability of the food system by 0.454, and an increase in economic indicators by one unit led to the increase in the stability of food security will increase by 0.473.There is a direct relationship between all implicit variables.
The next research stage is checking the adequacy of the obtained model.The model is adequate, as evidenced by the proximity to 0 of the Maximum Residual Cosine and RMS Standardized Residual values.A p-value less than 0.05 indicates that it is possible to reject the null hypothesis that there is no structural connection between the stability of food security and economic and demographic indicators.In addition, the distribution of residuals corresponds to the normal distribution law (Figure 3).
Thus, the analysis confirmed the relationships between the stability of food security and economic and demographic indicators.Moreover, the demographic component plays the leading role, and the stability of food security and the country's economic well-being depends on the change.
Aiyedogbon et al. (2022) investigated the impact of population growth on food security in Nigeria, holding significant relevance for informing government policies that address food security challenges.Overall, the study's comprehensive analysis of the relationship between population growth and food security, coupled with its consideration of multiple indicators, provides valuable insights for shaping government policies to address food security challenges in Nigeria.By incorporating these findings into policy formulation processes, policymakers can develop evidence-based strategies that effectively enhance food security and promote sustainable development.
The results are somewhat contradictory, as they do not coincide with Götmark and Andersson (2023), who established that population growth leads to a decrease in food security; that is, there is an inverse relationship between these indicators.In this study, structural modeling sheds light on the direct relationship between demographic factors and food system stability, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers alike.By considering the implications of demographic changes on food security, policymakers can develop informed strategies to strengthen the resilience of food systems and ensure access to nutritious food for all populations.
Dubanych et al. (2023) investigated the country's food security from the perspective of the role of food retail chains in the former "Eastern Bloc," taking into account the abnormal values of the inflation rate for food products and its impact on consumer demand.In current conclusions, further research into the relationship between food security, economic factors, and demographic indicators at the country or regional level holds promise for informing more targeted and effective policies to improve food security outcomes.By adopting a multidisciplinary approach and considering a broad range of indicators, researchers can generate valuable insights that contribute to the development of strategies for achieving food security and sustainable development goals.
Hadouga (2023) andBouchafaa et al. (2023) highlight the importance of state policy in regulating socioeconomic and demographic development.Litovtseva et al. (2022), Pakhnenko and Kuan (2023), and Gentsoudi (2023) researched the role of the public sector as the leading reformer.Zolkover et al. (2022) and Lyeonov et al. (2022) emphasize the role of state institutions and public policy in ensuring effective changes.
Shi et al. (2023) investigated the structural formation of the agricultural sector to optimize the supply of agricultural products in China.Toledo et al. (2023) analyzed the relationship between water, energy, and food security to build an effective agrarian policy.Blikhar et al. (2023) studied the legal aspects of ensuring food security.Oussou et al. (2023) and Singh (2022) focused on ways to improve the processing of certain products to affect food security and reduce environmental pollution.Richardson (2023) investigated what role beekeeping can play in strengthening food security and public health.Questions about how vulnerable agriculture is to climate change were investigated by Sporchia et al. (2021) and Serkendiz et al. (2023), and how to insure against these risks -by Rakotoarisoa and Mapp (2023).Yerankin et al. (2023) formed a set of national indicators of food security.Gu et al. (2023) suggested evaluating the effectiveness of food security based on the concept of One Health, analyzing the Global Single Health Index and socio-economic indicators.

Figure 1 .
Figure 1.Functional relationships between explicit and implicit variables

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Functional relationships between explicit and implicit variables

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Normal probability plot of residual distribution

Table 1 .
Table 1 presents the indicators selected for the study.The study targeted 39 European countries, which can be conditionally divided into three groups depending on the level Definitions of the selected variables

Table 2 .
Descriptive statistics for the input array Note: obs -number of observations, mean -average value, median -median, min -minimum value, max -maximum value, Std.Dev.-standard deviation (dispersion).

Table 3 .
Principal components analysis for three groups of indicators

Table 3 (
cont.).Principal components analysis for three groups of indicators

Table 4 .
Correlation analysis for the array of input data by groups of indicators

Table 5 .
Structural modelingAll obtained regression parameters can be called statistically significant since their p-level is equal to or less than 0.05; therefore, based on Table5, a system of regression equations can be formed (2):

Table 6 .
Basic summary statistics Note: DEM = demographic indicators; ECON = economic indicators; PROD = stability of food security indicators.