Natalia Nebaba

The purpose of the article is to study the innovation levers of developing the intellectual background for economic growth in two groups of post-socialist Central and Eastern European countries (middle-income and lower-middle-income countries). To achieve that, the quantitative effect of the national intellectual capital components (human capital, market capital, structural capital and capital of renewal and development) on the dynamics of the countries’ economic growth was determined.
For both groups, multiple regressions have been constructed that reflect the quantitative relationship between the economic growth rates (in the regressions – the indicator of real gross domestic product per capita) and the components of national intellectual capital in 2010–2018. It has been established that the key innovative indicator of the economic growth of middle-income countries is the national capital of renewal and development, which in general corresponds to the pan-European model of innovation and investment development. Education is the main factor that provides the basis for the economic growth of lower-middle-income countries. Recommendations on improvement of national innovation policy are offered.

Successful crisis resolution of the enterprise depends heavily on its timely detection, which is facilitated by the use of forecasting models. This allows understanding the scale of the problems in a timely manner and developing the appropriate measures, applying various financial mechanisms to prevent it, and in case of occurrence, reducing the amount of losses. In this context, it is important to choose the most optimal informational model that would provide the most objective forecasts, considering the financial activity peculiarities of the analyzed enterprise. Given a wide list of models that predict the financial crisis, there is a need to analyze and select the most accurate model for enterprises in the real economy. Ten Ukrainian machine builders are used to assess the bankruptcy probability using the most popular models; a taxonomic analysis was carried out, which allows systematizing a large amount of data and analyzing their impact on enterprise development. An integral index was determined, which allowed predicting the financial performance dynamics. For each enterprise, ten indicators were used characterizing their financial state for the period 2014–2018. It is substantiated that the selected models differ from each other by the set of initial data and the number of coefficients from four to seven. It is also determined that the efficient use of studied models is quite different; so when choosing a model to predict the bankruptcy probability, it is necessary to consider the peculiarities of the enterprise’s production activity, the accuracy in creating the financial statements and many other factors, including the presence of company’s shares in circulation at the stock market. It is worthwhile to use a taxonomic analysis to make a comprehensive comparison of the enterprise financial state and to substantiate the final choice of the bankruptcy forecasting model.

In the context of globalization of the educational services market, competition between universities is becoming more intense. This manifests itself, among other things, in the struggle for positions in international university rankings. Given that universities are evaluated according to many criteria in such rankings, it becomes necessary to identify the most significant factors in determining their positions.
This study aims to identify the key factors determining the world’s leading universities’ leadership in international university rankings. The numerical values of the criteria for compiling the QS World University Rankings (QS) and Times Higher Education (THE) rankings were an empirical basis for the study. The analysis covered the Top 50 universities (according to the QS ranking) and was conducted based on reports for 2020 and 2021.
At first, clustering was carried out (method – k-means); the data set was the combination of numerical values of QS and THE criteria (six and five criteria, respectively). The universities were divided into three clusters in 2020 (23, 19, 8 universities) and 2021 (23, 17, 10 universities). This showed the universities’ leadership relative to each other for each year.
At the second stage, classification processing was performed (method – decision trees). As a result, criteria combinations that give an absolute separation of all clusters (2020 – five combinations; 2021 – eight combinations) were identified. The obtained combinations largely determine universities’ affiliation to clusters; their criteria are recognized as key factors of their leadership in the rankings. This study’s results can serve as guidelines for improving universities’ positions in the rankings.

Hostilities in eastern Ukraine have highlighted the need for accelerated transformation of Ukrainian armed forces and strengthening country’s defense capabilities. Ukraine is an active consumer and exporter of weapons, so it needs to improve constantly its position in the international arms market, which, by the way, unlike most markets suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, is constantly growing. The study aims to assess the prospects of Ukraine’s integration into the world arms market to secure its armed forces and achieve the highest possible level of arms exports. Methods of comparative analysis and integrated approach were used in the study. The obtained results demonstrated that Ukrainian arms export has fallen dramatically in recent years (from 1501 million USD in 2012 to 115 million USD in 2020); the largest importers were China (36% of Ukraine’s total arms exports), Russia (20%), and Thailand (17%). The main explanation for this is the necessity of transition to more technological weapons. Concerning weapon imports, Turkey, the USA, Great Britain, Poland, and Bulgaria became the main suppliers. It is about ammunition, electronics, including electronic warfare stations, means of communication, sniper rifles, grenade launchers, etc. The study substantiated that Ukraine should implement joint projects with other countries to fully develop its high-tech weapons in accordance with the latest military technologies.

External public debt is not only a means of raising funds to finance public needs, but also an effective tool for stabilizing a country`s economic development, the assessment and analysis of which allows making effective management decisions at the state level and developing effective measures to improve the economic and debt situation. The paper aims to assess the impact of external public debt on Ukraine’s economic development indicators (GDP, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves). In order to achieve the stated goal distributed lag models are used, which allow modeling a country’s economic development (according to key indicators) within certain forecast scenarios. The study covers the period from 2009 to 2021. An analysis of the dynamics of external public debt in Ukraine led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in external debt in recent years. Econometric models with a distributed lag of three years are built and the results of the influence of external public debt in different time periods are analyzed. The average lag in the built models is about one and a half years (for GDP) and two and a half years (for foreign direct investment). This value indicates that the average change (increase/decrease) in external public debt will change economic development over time. A positive conclusion is made on the possibility of not only assessing the time lag between the indicators, but also on the prospects for forecasting both the public debt and key indicators of Ukraine`s economic development.

Acknowledgment
The article was published as part of research projects “Convergence of economic and educational transformations in the digital society: modeling the impact on regional and national security” (No. 0121U109553) and “Reforming the lifelong learning system in Ukraine for the prevention of the labor emigration: a coopetition model of institutional partnership” (No. 0120U102001).

Financial security of a country is an integral part of its economic security and the basis of national security. The paper aims to assess and forecast the level of Ukraine’s financial security using two methodological approaches (the existing one and the authors’ elaboration) to choose the best alternative. The first one is based on the Methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. The alternative one has been developed as a multiplicative model of non-linear convolution of relevant direct and indirect impact indicators, considering the opportunity and risk, which is based on a combination of a power function and the Harrington method. A database of input indicators was formed with further differentiation according to their impact on Ukraine’s financial security. The research results demonstrated that during 2013–2019 Ukraine’s financial security integrated index was cyclical and constantly changing. A comparison of the existing methodology and the developed model demonstrated a certain discrepancy between the obtained results. It was substantiated that the proposed multiplicative non-linear convolution model for assessing and forecasting the state’s financial security is more relevant, includes current indicators sorted by their direct and indirect impact, and adjusts them according to the risk of impact on overall security in the country.

Globalization processes define the modern trends in world economic development, including both international financial markets and the banking systems of different countries. The study aims to evaluate the efficiency of the banking systems of Ukraine and 17 European countries in order to choose the appropriate measures, concerning its increasing. The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was chosen as a tool for evaluating the efficiency of the banking systems; the calculations were made using the Banxia Frontier Analyst software. Also, the BBC and CCR models of linear programming were used to define the existing relationship between the studied indicators. As a result of the study, the groups of efficient and inefficient banking systems were identified, which allowed determining the existing reserves, possible managerial tools and decisions for improving the inefficient banking systems’ performance. Besides, graphical interpretation of the current position (rank) of certain country bank system in relation to other countries’ banking systems was presented. The developed approach is aimed at improving bank management at the macro level and enhancing the efficiency of banking systems.

Escalating competition, technological changes and the struggle for innovation present companies with a knowledge management (KM) challenge. To implement it at the modern level, it is necessary to develop a knowledge management system (KMS). Significant opportunities for this are created by information technologies (IT), qualitatively changing approaches to knowledge management. Therefore, the study aims to clarify the theoretical foundations of shaping the company’s KMS and conceptualize information tools for its formation. Within the theoretical foundations of KM, its essence (as a systematic management activity and a set of measures to ensure the business processes of obtaining, storing, disseminating and using knowledge in the company), the subject (the aforementioned processes and various types of knowledge), and links with other types of management (innovation, information, personnel management, etc.) are specified. Given the main goals, principles and tasks of KM, its main approaches, key processes and control elements are summarized. The conceptual foundations of KMS development are formulated and its subsystems (methodological, planning, information, and functional subsystems for ensuring business processes for obtaining, distributing and using knowledge) are highlighted. Given the importance of IT, the following concepts have been formulated: a portal for R&D management, innovation management platforms, and a tool for formalizing knowledge and corporate knowledge base. Their purpose, functionality, and the role of ensuring work with knowledge and KM implementation are described. The problem of their implementation, operation and improvement is emphasized. The research results allow creating a new technological basis for the introduction of knowledge management.

The effects of the economic recession and the COVID-19 crisis call for more active support for the tourism industry. To pursue a supranational tourism policy and create a favorable marketing environment at the national level, it is necessary to consider the objective differences between member states and their characteristics in the field of tourism. This study aims to highlight the main factors that characterize the asymmetry of the tourism industry in the EU countries, which allows ensuring the competitiveness of national tourism companies through the formation of an appropriate marketing strategy. The research methodology includes calculation of the asymmetry coefficient and cluster and classification analysis based on Eurostat data.
At the first stage, 27 indicators were selected that characterize the structural proportions of the tourism industry and the intensity of tourism in the EU countries. Based on the calculation of the asymmetry coefficient, a high level of heterogeneity of the tourism industry parameters in the EU countries for each of the indicators was demonstrated. At the second stage, clustering (algorithm – k-means, metric – Euclidean distance) of the EU countries was carried out according to the selected indicators. As a result, eight clusters were obtained, which showed asymmetry in developing national tourism sectors in the EU. At the third stage, as a result of classification (method – decision trees), seven combinations of indicators were identified, which completely distinguish the resulting clusters of the EU countries. The parameters included in these combinations are, in fact, the main factors of the asymmetry in the development of the EU tourism industry.
Based on the analysis of the asymmetric development of the tourism industry by country, it is possible to determine its growth points and competitiveness drivers in the EU internal market and identify marketing strategies.

The Crimea annexation and the military aggression of the Russian Federation, which first began in some territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale war on February 24, 2022, resulted in heavy losses of life and a humanitarian crisis, exacerbating economic, political and social instability. To restore Ukraine’s economy, all businesses, including hospitality (hotel and restaurant business) sector, should continue functioning, though it is a challenging but crucial task. The paper aims to analyze the state of the hospitality market in the current war conditions in Ukraine and assess the possibilities of its restoration and development. An online survey was conducted among 282 representatives of the hospitality business in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil, and Zakarpattia regions. Based on the results, in 2022, almost 23% of hospitality industry representatives suspended their activities, and 54% functioned only partially. Many surveyed hotels and restaurants (36%) have gradually changed and adapted their business strategies. For more than half of the hospitality representatives, expenses increased by 20-50%, and profits dropped by more than 20%. The critical consequences of the full-scale war for the Ukrainian hospitality market are as follows: disruption of supply chains, reduction in consumers’ purchasing power, changes in consumer demand, shortage of certain types of products, shortage of personnel, and business unprofitability.