Anzhela Ignatyuk

The paper presents an approach to assessing insurance market infrastructure entities’ activity that allows identifying gaps and weaknesses and seeking ways of addressing them in the context of revitalization of such emerging insurance markets as Ukrainian. To determine the impact of costs of insurance market infrastructure entities on the financial performance before taxes resulting from insurance activity, the regression formula is used. It demonstrates significant dependence between financial performance before taxes of insurers and costs of accident commissioner services. Based on this, an assessment approach for groups of insurance market infrastructure entities is created. The assessment results suggest that the efficiency of insurance market infrastructure entities in Ukraine is unsatisfactory (135 points out of 390). To develop infrastructure entities of the insurance market in Ukraine, it is expedient to ensure an effective regulatory framework for all insurance infrastructure entities, including registers, reporting, and a requirement to disclose information on their performance.

The study identifies the features of the USD/UAH exchange rate dynamics for the period from January 2014 to May 2020. The main purpose of the empirical analysis is to determine the current trend of the USD/UAH exchange rate (is it random or permanent), indicate the presence of seasonality in foreign exchange rate dynamics and evaluate its sensitivity to external shocks. Three hypotheses are tested using several methods of time series analysis (autocorrelation analysis, ADF, Phillips-Perron and Granger tests), including a trend-season model using a time series of one variable (ARMA), a multifactor VAR-model, impulse functions. The results show that, the movement of the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar is a stochastic process. Its trend has a random component and tends to change sharply over time. Moreover, exchange rate fluctuations are seasonal. It depreciates in the first and second quarters, and strengthens in the third and fourth. Some macroeconomic indicators cause a positive or negative reaction of the USD/UAH exchange rate. This indicates that today the Ukrainian foreign exchange market is relatively efficient, but stable, since its reaction to external shocks is short-term, insignificant and tends to fade out. Although the findings are controversial, they support the generally accepted view that the exchange rate formation is a multifactorial process that depends on several macroeconomic factors. However, high volatility and random walk specification indicate that it is almost impossible to predict its future value at this time.

Acknowledgment
The material was prepared within the framework of the scientific research Modeling and Forecasting the Behavior of Financial Markets as an Information Base for Ensuring Financial Stability and Security of the State, No. 0117U003936 (supervisor Alex Plastun).