Marwan Alzoubi

This paper investigates the wealth effects of the consumer price index, interest rate, domestic credit and real economic activity on the Amman Stock Exchange performance. Over the period 1991–2020 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. While the interest rate is a powerful monetary tool to fight inflation and recession, it can be detrimental to investors. The target variables, consumer price index (CPI) and interest rate (IDR), are both highly significant with the correct signs. An increase of 1 percent in CPI and IDR leads to a fall in stock prices by 1.6 percent and 5 percent, respectively. While the central bank is targeting inflation by raising interest rates, its actions reflect negatively on the stock market. The short-run model confirms the causality from the independent variables to the dependent variable. Moreover, the error correction term (ECT) is very high and significant at the 1 percent level amounting to 83.3 percent, which confirms the evidence of the long-run relationship. Monetary objectives are really important, but financial stability is also important.

This paper analyzes the importance of size and capital for risk-taking incentives of Jordanian banks using panel data of 13 commercial banks for the period 2007–2017. The results reveal that size and capital add to stability, consistent with the economies of scale and scope hypothesis. In developing countries, banks are more conservative and less involved in market-based activities; however, they are interconnected just as in developed countries. The results of the first model and second model reveal that as size increases by 1 percent, risk decreases by 0.11 percent and 0.03 percent, respectively, implying that too-big-to-fail is not present and that moral hazard is not a serious issue. In both models, large size is driven by diversification not by risk-taking incentives. In terms of capital, the results of the first model and second model reveal that as capital increases by 1 percent, risk decreases by 0.48 and 0.12 percent, respectively. The fact that Jordanian banks are overcapitalized indicates that the central bank regulation is not binding. Banks increase their capital adequacy ratios to reduce risk. It is clear that there is economic benefit from increased size. However, the failures of large banks are systemic due to their interconnectedness. Therefore, regulators need to pay special attention to them in accordance with Basel III Accord.