Price discovery and information transmission across stock index futures: evidence from VN 30 Index Futures on Vietnam’s stock market

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The introduction of the first tradable stock index futures of VN 30 is a very good signal showing that Vietnam is starting to have a high-level financial market, which brings many expectations about sustainable and safe development of its stock market. However, risk concerns of this type of derivative products have been raising with many claims since then. This article aims to provide empirical evidences to show if futures trading plays important role of price discovery and information transmission for spot market. Using daily data collected about VN 30 Index Futures, VN 30 Index, VN Index from August 10, 2017 to February 28, 2019, which is divided into three sub-periods (increase/decrease/recovery), the research verifies VN 30 Index Futures’ role of price discovery and information transmission by applying Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Empirical findings show that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between the two series groups (including VN 30 Index Futures, VN 30 Index and VN 30 Index Futures and VN Index) during three sub-periods or spot and futures markets are integrated and synchronized. In particular, VN 30 Index Futures’ price discovery and information transmission are clearly seen when the market falls or does not change a lot.

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    • Figure 1. Research design
    • Figure 2. Price movements of VN Index, VN 30 Index, and VN 30 Index Futures
    • Figure 3. The coefficient of ETC
    • Table 1. Impact of stock index futures’ introduction
    • Table 2. Statistics of VN Index, VN 30 Index, and VN 30 Index Futures return series
    • Table 3. Trace and Max-Eigenvalue test for VN 30 Index Futures and VN 30 Index
    • Table 4. Trace and Max-Eigenvalue test for VN 30 Index Futures and VN Index
    • Table 5. Estimated VECM and cointegrating equation (long-run model)