Evaluation of state budget structural changes based on the coefficient method

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According to the current situation in the world economy connected with the coronavirus pandemic, it is difficult to predict GDP growth. Non-economic factors determine the rate of decline in economies of almost all countries. Accordingly, it is extremely difficult to ensure the stable functioning of financial systems. In this situation, the role of public finance, especially the state budget, significantly increases, given the peculiarities of the formation of different levels’ budgets. This research aims to evaluate state budget structural changes on the example of Ukraine. Based on the linear coefficient and the quadratic coefficient of absolute structural changes, the quadratic coefficient of relative structural changes, and integral coefficients of structural changes the authors analyzed the state of public finance in Ukraine since the formation of the state and local budgets and their optimal use to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the economy can become one of the factors in maintaining financial stability and developing anti-crisis measures. The forecast values of the growth rate of budget revenues and expenditures confirm that the projected revenue gaps are significantly higher than the projected expenditure gaps. The cost structure of the state budget of Ukraine is characterized as a structure with a low level of differences. The Gatev and Ryabtsev coefficients demonstrate unidirectional dynamics. In contrast, Salai coefficient shows the opposite dynamics, which confirms a lack of stability in the cost structure. From 2008 to 2019, the chain rate of change has a significant variation range.

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    • Figure 1. Execution of expenditures of Ukraine’s state budget, %
    • Figure 2. Dynamics of integrated coefficients of structural changes in the expenditure side of the state budget of Ukraine
    • Figure 3. Dynamics of debt service indicators
    • Table 1. The scale for assessing the index of differences by Ryabtsev
    • Table 2. Indicators of dynamics and variations of structural changes in the revenue side of the state budget of Ukraine
    • Conceptualization
      Serhiy Frolov, Fathi Shukairi
    • Methodology
      Serhiy Frolov, Sylwester Bogacki, Fathi Shukairi
    • Project administration
      Serhiy Frolov, Sylwester Bogacki
    • Supervision
      Serhiy Frolov, Sylwester Bogacki
    • Validation
      Serhiy Frolov, Sylwester Bogacki
    • Writing – review & editing
      Serhiy Frolov, Fathi Shukairi
    • Data curation
      Fathi Shukairi, Alina Bukhtiarova
    • Formal Analysis
      Fathi Shukairi, Alina Bukhtiarova
    • Visualization
      Fathi Shukairi, Alina Bukhtiarova
    • Writing – original draft
      Fathi Shukairi, Alina Bukhtiarova