US macroeconomic determinants of Bitcoin

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This study aims to determine the impact of macroeconomic variables on bitcoin prices in the United States. Bitcoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that has the highest price and the most users in the United States in recent years. This study uses monthly data on inflation, interest rates, USD/EUR rates, gold prices, and bitcoin prices. To achieve the objectives of this study, Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) were used. The results showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between the variables of inflation, interest rates, and USD/EUR rates affecting the price of Bitcoin in that period. Conversely, there is a positive and significant relationship between the price of gold and the price of Bitcoin in the United States during that period. An in-depth understanding of how macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates and the USD/EUR rates affect Bitcoin price is key to making smart investment decisions in an increasingly complex crypto market. The findings of this analysis confirm that the significant relationship between macroeconomic variables and Bitcoin price provides deeper insights for investors to anticipate market movements and design adaptive investment strategies.

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    • Figure 1. USD/BTC price fluctuations 2016–2022
    • Table 1. Data stationarity test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller)
    • Table 2. Multicollinearity test
    • Table 3. DCC-MGARCH
    • Conceptualization
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Endrizal Ridwan, Dwi Fitrizal Salim
    • Data curation
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Dwi Fitrizal Salim
    • Formal Analysis
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Endrizal Ridwan
    • Investigation
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Endrizal Ridwan, Dwi Fitrizal Salim
    • Methodology
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni
    • Project administration
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni
    • Resources
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Dwi Fitrizal Salim
    • Software
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Endrizal Ridwan
    • Validation
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Endrizal Ridwan
    • Visualization
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Dwi Fitrizal Salim
    • Writing – original draft
      Mailinda Tri Wahyuni, Endrizal Ridwan, Dwi Fitrizal Salim
    • Funding acquisition
      Endrizal Ridwan, Dwi Fitrizal Salim
    • Supervision
      Endrizal Ridwan, Dwi Fitrizal Salim
    • Writing – review & editing
      Endrizal Ridwan, Dwi Fitrizal Salim