Akhmadbek Yusupov

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The environmental consequences of trade liberalization remain a critical concern for developing countries pursuing World Trade Organization (WTO) membership. Uzbekistan’s recent economic reforms and accelerated integration into global markets necessitate an empirical assessment of how trade openness and economic growth interact with carbon emissions. This study aims to examine the long-run and short-run relationships between real GDP, trade openness, and per capita CO₂ emissions in Uzbekistan. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to annual time series data from 1997 to 2024. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller test confirms that all variables are integrated of order I(1), and the ARDL(1,4,0) model is selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion. The bounds test F-statistic (4.607) exceeds the upper critical value at the 5% significance level, confirming long-run cointegration. The estimated long-run elasticities suggest that a 1% increase in GDP is associated with a 0.196% decrease in CO₂ emissions while a 1% increase in trade openness corresponds to a 0.185% reduction in emissions. These findings support the pollution halo hypothesis. The error correction coefficient of −0.94 indicates a rapid adjustment toward equilibrium. Validated by robust diagnostic tests, the results provide empirical evidence that Uzbekistan’s trade integration is compatible with environmental sustainability, offering policy guidance for aligning WTO accession strategies with green development objectives.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the relationship between foreign trade and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Uzbekistan over the period 1997–2024. The analysis employs annual time-series data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) database, including three key variables: CO₂ emissions per capita (tonnes), exports of goods and services (current USD), and imports of goods and services (current USD). Using the Markov switching regression (MSR) model, the study identifies two distinct economic states: an export-oriented regime (Regime 1) characterized by high industrial production and export activity, and an import-driven regime (Regime 2) characterized by domestic consumption patterns and elevated import flows.
The empirical results demonstrate that the export–emissions relationship is regime-dependent: exports have a statistically significant positive effect on CO₂ emissions only during export-oriented periods (β = 1.54 × 10–10, p < 0.01), while this relationship becomes insignificant during import-driven periods (β = 5.20 × 10–11, p = 0.378). In contrast, imports consistently reduce CO₂ emissions across both regimes (Regime 1: β = −1.05×10–10; Regime 2: β = −1.07 × 10–10, both p < 0.01), indicating a stable import-substitution effect that displaces domestic production-related emissions. The transition probability analysis reveals high persistence in both regimes (P₁₁ = 79.69%, P₂₂ = 81.22%), with structural shifts occurring approximately every five years (expected durations: 4.92 years for Regime 1 and 5.32 years for Regime 2). These findings confirm that the trade–emissions relationship in Uzbekistan is nonlinear and regime-dependent, necessitating the development of regime-sensitive environmental and trade policies.