Ana Catarina Kaizeler

The efficient allocation of public financial resources to energy consumption in Portuguese municipalities is one of the most discussed topics in public finance, given the growing relevance of sustainability and energy efficiency. The study analyzes how public spending affects energy efficiency through a combination of data analysis and hypotheses testing to assess the relationship between public spending and energy consumption. The methodology includes DEA analysis of the financial data and energy consumption of the municipalities, as well as the definition of hypotheses to determine the possible correlations between investment and efficiency. The results suggest that, in general, municipalities with higher levels of public spending have lower levels of energy efficiency. Meanwhile, municipalities with smaller budgets and fewer resources tend to be more efficient. The DEA analysis of the data suggests that energy efficiency is not directly related to the size and/or economic aptitude of municipalities but rather to their ability to adopt new technologies and more efficient budgetary and financial management practices. The hypotheses tested show varying levels of efficiency in public spending in relation to energy consumption. The study also concludes that public policies should focus on technological innovation and benchmarking to improve energy efficiency. The analysis suggests that collaboration between municipalities and the adoption of best practices are essential to tackle regional disparities and promote energy sustainability.

Acknowledgments
This article is financed by Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa [Polytechnic Institute of Lisbon].

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The study provides a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of municipal budget allocation efficiency in Portugal over the period 2018–2022, based on a comparative and longitudinal analysis of financial data from 308 municipalities. Efficiency was assessed by examining the alignment between budget forecasts and actual financial execution. The results show that 77.6% of municipalities (n = 239) were classified as efficient in 2018, increasing to 82.1% (n = 253) in 2019 and 83.1% (n = 256) in 2020. However, a downward trend followed, with efficiency declining to 74.0% (n = 228) in 2021 and 73.7% (n = 227) in 2022. Over the five-year period, the average efficiency rate across all municipalities was 78.1%. In contrast, 21.9% of municipalities on average (ranging from 16.9% to 26.3%) consistently demonstrated inefficiencies in budget preparation and execution. The study identifies key contributing factors to inefficiency, including political interference, reliance on incremental budgeting approaches, and limited technical forecasting capacity. The data reveal persistent discrepancies between budgeted allocations and actual service demand, leading to resource misallocation and reduced fiscal credibility. Statistical patterns also indicate that municipalities with higher population densities and more diversified revenue sources tended to perform better in efficiency metrics. The findings support the conclusion that the adoption of rigorous, data-driven forecasting methodologies significantly improves financial planning outcomes and institutional trust. These results offer evidence-based recommendations for refining municipal financial management practices, particularly in settings subject to political and economic volatility.

Acknowledgment
This article is financed by Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal [Polytechnic Institute of Setúbal].