Assem Nurzhanova

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study examines how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Kazakhstan perceive and prioritize global risks within an evolving resource-dependent economy. SMEs play a vital role in Kazakhstan’s economic development but remain highly vulnerable to macroeconomic instability, environmental shocks, and geopolitical uncertainty. The study aims to explore SMEs’ perceptions of global risks, assess how well these perceptions align with the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) global risk rankings, and identify key issues requiring policy attention.
The paper employs a structured survey and qualitative risk assessment methodology to analyze data collected from 127 SMEs across all 20 regions of Kazakhstan. The survey, conducted in October 2024, included questions on the perceived likelihood and impact of global risks over a 10-year horizon. Risk categories encompassed economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological domains. Respondents assessed each risk on a five-point scale for both probability and severity.
Findings indicate that inflation and labor shortages are perceived as the most critical risks by Kazakh SMEs, followed by environmental concerns such as extreme weather events and resource depletion. Geopolitical and technological risks were considered important but secondary. A risk matrix was developed to visualize the prioritization of these risks and support policy planning.
The results reveal a significant gap between global risk assessments and localized SME perceptions, underscoring the importance of context-specific risk management strategies. Targeted government interventions in workforce development, financial support, and climate resilience are essential to strengthen the adaptive capacity of SMEs facing global challenges.