Inessa Yarova

This study aims to comprehensively assess the state’s financial security of Ukraine in the context of mounting debt and economic instability. Particular attention is paid to the security of the financial sector, which determines the overall level of financial system security. This involves constructing a regression model of the relationship between the level of financial security and debt, the size of the economy, and reserves, as well as forecasting likely medium-term dynamics.
Modeling revealed imbalances. During the war, the level of financial security dropped to a critical level, providing only about 30% of the required level of economic protection. One of the most vulnerable components was debt security, which shows a high degree of dependence on external financing. Regression modeling demonstrated a clear negative correlation between the amount of external debt and the level of financial security, with each increase in the debt burden being accompanied by a decrease in the integral index. Conversely, despite being observed, the positive impact of GDP growth proves insufficient to counterbalance the identified threats. Consequently, if current trends persist, Ukraine’s financial security level may decline to 16.6% by 2030, indicating an imminent approach to a critical point of macro-financial vulnerability.
The study highlights the pressing need to reconsider public financial policy, particularly concerning debt management, budget planning, and the modernization of the financial system. This is essential not only to sustain the economy but also to safeguard the state in the face of an existential threat.

Acknowledgment
This study was financially supported by the NATO SPS Program “Security of territorial communities: evidence from the Eastern European countries”.
Also, this article is published as an output of the project “Economic bases for managing Ukraine’s debt security during martial law” (No. 0121U112685).

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study addresses the critical need to understand how emerging economic drivers can facilitate common prosperity by empirically examining the mechanisms by which new quality productivity and international trade facilitate common prosperity. The aim is to identify and compare the respective roles of these two forces in promoting common prosperity. Using panel data from 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province, China, covering the period 2014–2023, the study finds that new quality productivity exerts a significant positive influence on common prosperity in Zhejiang Province (the coefficient of new quality productivity to common prosperity is 0.79), serving as the primary driving force behind this endeavor. International trade also exerts a significant positive impact on common prosperity (the coefficient of international trade to common prosperity is 0.19). Both forces jointly propel common prosperity in Zhejiang Province, with new quality productivity serving as the core engine and international trade providing crucial support. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect is stronger in the coastal areas of eastern Zhejiang (regression coefficient is 0.629) than in the inland regions of western Zhejiang (regression coefficient is 0.438). This study provides theoretical foundations and policy references for Zhejiang Province to advance common prosperity by synergistically developing new quality productivity forces and international trade.