Van Dung Ha

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Uncertainty is an important concern in banking risk management, as it can undermine the financial system’s shock absorption capacity and threaten overall banking stability. Utilizing a sample of 24 Vietnamese joint-stock commercial banks from 2012 to 2022 (Since 2023, several banks have undergone mergers and others have come under central bank control), this study analyzes and evaluates the impact of world uncertainty on credit risk in commercial banks. Additionally, the study analyzes the moderating effects of concentration and size on the relationship between world uncertainty and bank credit risk. By employing the Bayesian regression method and the Gibbs sampling algorithm, the research has obtained several noteworthy results. Firstly, the study finds that heightened world uncertainty exerts an increasing effect on bank credit risk. Secondly, the impact of world uncertainty tends to diminish when the size of banks increases or when the regulation of concentration within the system is strengthened. The results provide important insights for managers and policymakers, serving as a basis for management implications. These implications focus on managing bank size and system concentration to mitigate credit risk for Vietnamese commercial banks.