Determinants of bankruptcy probability in Indonesian rural banks

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This study investigates the key factors influencing the probability of bankruptcy among rural banks in Indonesia, concentrating on internal, industry-specific, and external factors. The study analyzes 1,391 conventional rural banks in Indonesia from 2019 to 2023, resulting in 6,919 bank-year observations. This study uses financial and regional macroeconomic data and applies a population-averaged logistic regression model on a balanced panel dataset. The results indicate that internal factors play a significant role in determining the probability of bankruptcy. In contrast, industry characteristics, which are competition and regulation, and external factors, such as economic growth, do not exhibit a substantial impact. Rural banks characterized by inadequate capital and low profitability are at a heightened risk of insolvency, exacerbated by a significant proportion of non-performing loans. Excessive liquidity paradoxically leads to insolvency, as it indicates the presence of underutilized assets, increasing the chance of failure. These findings confirm that policies encouraging underperforming rural banks to merge with solid rural banks are suitable. These strategies promote a more robust rural banking ecosystem and effective regulatory control by decreasing the number of rural banks.

Acknowledgment
This research was funded by Hibah BIMA Kemendikburistek, grant number 0008/LPPM/UP/VI/2024.

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    • Table 1. Variable definitions, source, and expected sign
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics
    • Table 3. Means сomparison
    • Table 4. Correlation matrix
    • Table 5. Main regression results
    • Table 6. Robustness check
    • Conceptualization
      Chaerani Nisa, Tia Ichwani, Dewi Kurniawati, Ameilia Damayanti
    • Data curation
      Chaerani Nisa, Tia Ichwani, Dewi Kurniawati, Ameilia Damayanti
    • Formal Analysis
      Chaerani Nisa, Tia Ichwani, Dewi Kurniawati
    • Funding acquisition
      Chaerani Nisa
    • Methodology
      Chaerani Nisa
    • Project administration
      Chaerani Nisa, Dewi Kurniawati
    • Supervision
      Chaerani Nisa, Tia Ichwani
    • Writing – original draft
      Chaerani Nisa, Tia Ichwani, Dewi Kurniawati, Ameilia Damayanti
    • Writing – review & editing
      Chaerani Nisa, Tia Ichwani, Dewi Kurniawati, Ameilia Damayanti
    • Software
      Tia Ichwani, Ameilia Damayanti
    • Validation
      Tia Ichwani
    • Visualization
      Dewi Kurniawati
    • Investigation
      Ameilia Damayanti
    • Resources
      Ameilia Damayanti