Empirical analysis of the relationship between renewable energy consumption and long-term economic growth in Morocco

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The objective of this study is to assess the potential long-term impact of continued and increasing consumption of renewable energy on Morocco’s economic growth. Employing a Cobb-Douglas production function, the study investigates the influence of renewable energy on GDP over the period from 1990 to 2023. In order to consider a possible non-linear dynamic, the squared term of renewable energy consumption is included among the explanatory variables, and the analysis is conducted using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The findings reveal a non-linear, inverted U-shaped relationship between renewable energy use and economic growth. Specifically, the analysis identifies a critical consumption threshold of 9%, beyond which the effect on growth turns negative. Given that Morocco’s current energy strategy, adopted in 2009, targets a substantial increase in renewable energy use over the long term, the results suggest that unchecked expansion may hinder economic performance. Therefore, optimizing renewable energy use is essential, and a revision of 2009 energy policy appears warranted to ensure it aligns with long-term economic sustainability.

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    • Figure 1. Stability test, CUSUM
    • Figure 2. Stability test, CUSUMQ
    • Figure 3. Inverted U-shaped relationship between renewable energy and GDP
    • Table 1. Statistics that describe the factors from 1990 to 2023
    • Table 2. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron root test
    • Table 3. Optimal lag
    • Table 4. ARDL bound test results
    • Table 5. Residual diagnostic test results
    • Table 6. Ramsey regression equation specification error test (RESET) results
    • Table 7. Long-run estimation
    • Conceptualization
      Abdelaziz Aguilal
    • Data curation
      Abdelaziz Aguilal, Mohammed Hennach, Rachid Ech-Choudany
    • Formal Analysis
      Abdelaziz Aguilal, Mohammed Hennach
    • Investigation
      Abdelaziz Aguilal, Mohammed Hennach, Rachid Ech-Choudany
    • Methodology
      Abdelaziz Aguilal
    • Software
      Abdelaziz Aguilal, Mohammed Hennach
    • Validation
      Abdelaziz Aguilal, Mohammed Hennach, Benaceur Outtaj, Rachid Ech-Choudany
    • Visualization
      Abdelaziz Aguilal, Mohammed Hennach, Benaceur Outtaj, Rachid Ech-Choudany
    • Writing – original draft
      Abdelaziz Aguilal
    • Writing – review & editing
      Mohammed Hennach, Benaceur Outtaj
    • Funding acquisition
      Benaceur Outtaj, Rachid Ech-Choudany
    • Project administration
      Benaceur Outtaj
    • Resources
      Benaceur Outtaj, Rachid Ech-Choudany
    • Supervision
      Benaceur Outtaj