Elza Mamedova

The purpose of the study is to develop methodological approach for identifying changes in the level of insurance companies’ competitiveness on the travel services market. Based on development of multifactor regression equation, integrated indicators of insurance companies’ competitiveness in 2016–2019 were calculated. The application of three-sigma rule allowed to divide insurance companies by competitiveness levels and to identify that during 2016–2019 most of insurers had sufficient and critical levels of competitiveness and the group of insurance companies with a high level of competitive position is small. The Markov chain theory was used as a research method to determine the probability of insurance companies moving to higher or lower competitiveness levels. The results of Markov’s method showed that the majority of insurance companies are most likely to remain in their initial groups and only insurers with low and sufficient competitiveness have high probability to change their positions. Companies with high competitiveness have very strong positions on the market and there is very low probability that other insurers will capture leaders’ market share in the coming years. So, the use of the developed approach allows predicting a decrease of insurance ability to compete on the travel services market and deciding on the necessity to change the competitive strategy.