Fidan Safarova

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study analyzes the causal relationships between economic growth, inflation, exports, and domestic credit to the private sector in Turkey using annual data covering the period from 1990 to 2024, obtained from the World Bank and the Turkish Statistical Institute. The empirical strategy is based on a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework combined with the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality approach, with the long-run interactions among the variables further examined through Johansen cointegration analysis. This integrated methodology allows for a comprehensive assessment of both short-run dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships in the Turkish macro-financial system. The empirical findings from the Toda–Yamamoto causality tests reveal statistically significant causal effects running from exports of goods and services, economic growth, and inflation to domestic credit to the private sector. Specifically, exports (EXGS), GDP growth (GDPG), and inflation (INF) each exert a meaningful influence on domestic private sector credit (DOCR), indicating that historical movements in these macroeconomic variables possess substantial explanatory and predictive power for credit dynamics. These results underscore the importance of real economic activity, external trade performance, and price stability in shaping the evolution of financial intermediation in Turkey. From a policy perspective, the results imply that maintaining export competitiveness, promoting stable and inclusive economic growth, and ensuring low and predictable inflation are essential for improving private sector credit access, reinforcing financial sector performance, and fostering sustainable economic development and macroeconomic stability in Turkey.