Igor Chugunov

The Great Recession has imposed vital limitations on the policy maker’s ability to react to further economic challenges. In this article, the authors set a purpose to assess the expediency and the size of fiscal consolidation or expansionary measures for countries with emerging markets depending on economic dynamics. The data on the episodes of large changes in fiscal policy, representing both fiscal stimuli and consolidation in Ukraine and in the EU countries with emerging market economies from 2001 to 2017, were evaluated. The authors examined the main reasons of fiscal policy’s volatility and its impact on economic growth. The countries with low and medium level of institutional framework for fiscal policy formulation could face permanent deficit and public debt problem. Episodes of expansionary fiscal adjustments based on government revenues cuts and spending increases were more effective compared with those that were entirely based on spending increases. Empirical investigation showed that successful fiscal consolidation measures obligatory included the government primary spending reduction. In those cases, the budget deficit-to-GDP and public debt-to-GDP ratios were declined. Medium-term priorities to develop the methodical bases of fiscal policy design were justified.

Economic changes create a strong need for the reconsideration of the system of financial and budgetary knowledge and paradigms already created in developed countries regarding the possibility of their use in the countries with developing economies. In this article, the authors clarify that the process of formation of the efficient and mutually agreed budget policy with strategic tasks of the social and economical development of countries requires development of the budget strategy. Its essence is the dynamic realization of the system of goals, principles, directions, tasks of state authorities, co-ordination and adequacy of their long-term regulatory measures to internal and external changes in the economic environment and social transformations aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability, accelerating economic growth and improving the well-being of the population. The principles of budget strategy development have been clearly defined: scientific substantiation; integrity; efficiency; systematic approach; adaptability; variability; interdependence; purposefulness; sociality; legitimacy. The share of government expenditures, budget deficit and public debt in the gross domestic product in the EU and Ukraine has been estimated. The priority directions of budget strategies in the conditions of economic transformations have been defined, in particular, regarding the increase of efficiency of public expenditures and establishment of restrictions on their level of growth; improvement of the mechanism for managing budget deficits, public debt and guarantees and reduction of their limits. The research has demonstrated a huge influence of the budget strategy on the social and economical processes and on the development of the social relations.

In the conditions of institutional transformations, the issue of raising the budgetary policy prudence level, strengthening its impact on socio-economic processes becomes relevant, especially in emerging countries. This paper delivers the essence and role of budgetary policy in ensuring the macroeconomic stability and social welfare in the emerging countries. The approaches to budget policy vectors in terms of budget revenues and expenditures, budget deficits, and public debt are presented. The article provides a detailed analysis of public debt service ratio, the proportion of the budget deficit, and public debt to GDP in national currencies of emerging countries to the US dollar during 2000–2018. The authors outlined the budgetary policy objectives, summarized and systematized the approaches to its implementation in the emerging countries in the conditions of institutional transformations. The article identifies the features of medium-term public debt management strategies in the emerging countries, in particular in terms of marginal indicators of the budget deficit and public debt, improvement of the debt management system, maintaining the debt portfolio optimal structure. The impact of budgetary policy on social and economic processes is proved.

The world economic globalization determines the feasibility of rethinking fiscal system knowledge on the formation and implementation of debt policy in the countries with transformation and advanced economies. In order to improve the system of public administration, the proper level of financing of innovation-investment projects, the important task is to improve the effectiveness of debt policy instruments and to ensure the consistency of its components. This article describes the essence of debt policy. The features of formation and implementation of the EU and Ukraine’s debt policy in the public administration system are defined in the context of institutional transformations. The authors assess the share of gross debt of the EU countries and the sovereign debt of Ukraine in GDP; conduct a regression analysis of the impact of public debt in GDP on real GDP growth in Ukraine. The article discusses the debt policy tasks, summarizes and systematizes the approaches to its implementation in different countries. The authors identify the features of public debt management strategies in terms of marginal indicators of the budget deficit, public debt, and instruments for improving the effectiveness of the public debt management system. The impact of debt policy on country’s financial and economic security is substantiated.

The article assessed the treatment effects of targeting inflation regime on the real output and consumer inflation persistence in both advanced and emerging market economies. An empirical analysis is based on data from 35 OECD and 40 emerging countries and covers inflation and non-inflation targets over the period 1990–2017. The results showed that inflation targeting (henceforth – IT) had no significant impact on the GDP per capita growth rate but slightly reduced the output volatility. This study founded out that full-fledged IT had the effect of slowing down consumer inflation and reducing its volatility. Moreover, in the OECD countries, the monetary framework had certain advantages during the Great Recession. The authors argued that in order to maintain price stability in emerging economies, a high level of central bank independence and accountability is required.

Social protection has long been a relevant subject of scientific debate. Its development is interrelated with the study of fiscal factors (collection of social contributions), establishment of major social protection vectors, and confirmation of hypotheses about the link between social protection policy and the resulting socio-economic indicators.
The purpose of the paper is to study the impact of public funding of social protectionon social indicatorsusing the example of Eurozone countries. To this end, a number of economic and mathematical methods of analysis were applied to process panel data of seventeen countries for the last fifteen years, including the calculation of the relative rate of variation, regression dependence statistics, and cluster analysis.
The study established the irrelevance between the scope of the fundingof spending on social protection and social contributions (coefficient of determination R2=0.255). As illustrated, social indicators are determined not only by the amount of funding of social spending, but also by the structure of the social protection system, in particular, the focus on assistance to families with children and disability compensation (coefficient of determination R2>0.3). The general level of public funding for social spending items results in the 69% income inequality index andis behind 58% of non-economic parameters affecting life quality. The information outlined in the papercan serve as a basis for the formation of social and budgetary policy, as well as the revision of the structure and scope of social protection funding toensure an efficient impact on the quality of life of the population.

The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the issue of strengthening the financial support of human capital development and enhancing its impact on economic growth. This study aims to assess the impact of financial support of human capital development in terms of public spending on health and education on economic growth. Economic-statistical methods and correlation-regression analysis are used to determine the impact of the share of public spending on health and education in GDP on real GDP, and to assess the characteristics of financial support of human capital development. The study reveals evidence of a link between the level of public funding for human capital development and real GDP. At the same time, for Ukraine and the countries-full members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, in particular Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Belarus, the Kyrgyz Republic, Uzbekistan, and Russia, the results of the study were mixed. In recent years, with the share of public spending on health and education in GDP growing by 1 percentage point, real GDP has grown in 4 and 5 countries, respectively, and decreased in 5 and 4 countries out of 9 studied. The results show that a significant deterrent to strengthening the financial support of human capital development and its impact on economic growth is a significant level of uncertainty in economic processes, which determines the importance of revising the forms and methods of public financing of human capital.

Large-scale military actions on Ukraine’s territory have led to extraordinary challenges for budget policy. This study aims to evaluate the budget policy of Ukraine and substantiate its strategic priorities in martial law. The paper used economic and statistical methods to assess the ultimate budget indicators. It was determined that budget revenues decreased due to the economic recession, and expenditures, primarily for defense and security, increased. In 2022, compared to 2021 (the full-scale war against Ukraine began on February 24, 2022), tax revenues decreased by 7.6%. In contrast, the study observed an increase in budget expenditures by 65.0%, in the budget deficit by 4.5 times (financed mainly by external borrowings and military bonds bought by the National Bank of Ukraine), and in state and guaranteed state debt by 52.4%. In the context of military operations, the budget policy aims to ensure a balance between financing the most critical items of the budget and stimulating the economy’s recovery. At the same time, the institutional capacity of state authorities allows controlling how a country survives in this challenging period. In order to restore the economy, the Ukrainian government must implement a prudent budget policy, assess fiscal risks associated with changes in the macroeconomic environment, and increase the efficiency of budget expenditures.

Considering climate change and growing ecological threats, achieving climate neutrality requires close attention from the state and the involvement of new tools, including those of the so-called green financing. This paper aims to determine the feasibility of combining the tasks of reducing the debt burden and expanding investments in environmental programs in Ukraine, using innovative tools for public finance management, such as debt-for-nature and debt-for-climate swaps. It substantiated the necessity of coordinating debt-for-environment investment programs within the framework of Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan and initiatives implemented in Ukraine with the active participation of the World Bank Group. The advantages of this approach are ensuring clear interaction with international financial institutions and expanding the practice of greening public management.
Based on statistical data for 2009–2022, the results demonstrate the growth of negative debt dynamics and characterize limited financing environmental restoration in Ukraine. Relying on international practices, the study conducted a comparative analysis to identify the most significant characteristics of the new debt green conversion instruments as well as the advantages and limitations of their use in Ukraine. The paper offers scenarios for implementing the concept of debt-for-nature exchange in the conditions of Ukraine. It shows the result of the formation of a new debt payment profile. These findings can raise state authorities’ awareness of making proper decisions regarding debt policy and public finance management.

Acknowledgment
The study presents the results of a study conducted as part of the scientific project “Formation of the foundations of nationally rooted stability and security of the economic development of Ukraine in the conditions of the hybrid “peace-war” system” (state registration number 0123U100965).

The direction of the state budget to defense and the military-industrial complex under martial law imposes more stringent requirements on the system of formation and execution of state budget expenditures. The study aims to determine the efficiency of the distribution of state budget expenditures and their impact on the country’s macroeconomic stability under martial law. To evaluate the implications of martial law on the expenditure component of Ukraine’s state budget, a correlation regression analysis was employed to investigate the relationship between the budget deficit and the levels of total state budget expenditures and defense spending. The empirical findings indicate that fluctuations in state budget expenditures are a significant determinant of the budget deficit. In particular, a 1 billion UAH increase in total expenditures is associated with an average rise in the budget deficit of 1.19%. This result underscores the importance of a sound fiscal policy that ensures the efficient and rational allocation of budgetary resources, particularly under conditions of heightened military and security needs. Based on analytical results, medium-term budgetary projections for the period of 2025–2027 were developed. The forecast estimates that state budget expenditures will constitute approximately 45.74% of GDP, while the budget deficit is projected to reach 18.84% of GDP. The findings emphasize the need for effective expenditure management and strategic prioritization of fiscal resources under martial law. The paper offers directions for strengthening the macroeconomic stability and financial resilience of Ukraine under martial law through the rational distribution of budget expenditures.

The dynamics of socio-economic processes requires the general government revenue to be adapted to changes in financial and economic conditions. The study aims to improve the scientific and methodological approach to general government revenue in the system of fiscal regulation. The impact of general government revenue on economic growth was estimated using a correlation-regression analysis and the multiplier effect concept. The authors found out that, in order to ensure the macroeconomic stability and accelerate the economic growth in conditions of transformational changes, it is reasonable to increase the share of direct taxes in the general government revenue structure, to implement the prudential and coherent fiscal policy with the strategic goals of the countries’ social and economic development. The authors substantiated that the increased share of direct taxes of the consolidated budget of Ukraine in GDP by one percent causes the real GDP to grow by 2.94 percent, whereas the increased share of the indirect taxes by one percent causes the real GDP to decrease by 0.45 percent; for 2014–2018, 28 percent of taxes are on average withdrawn per unit of GDP growth. The study results indicate that effective fiscal regulation is ensured only by the synergy of its fiscal, regulatory, and incentive functions, the reconciliation of fiscal sustainability and tax neutrality principles.

Acknowledgment
The article was prepared on the subject of the GDR: “The Financial and Budgetary Strategy for Economic Growth” (No. 0119U100577).