Peter Moores-Pitt

This study is aimed at investigating the volatility dynamics and the risk-return relationship in the South African market, analyzing the FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns for an updated sample period of 2009–2019. The study employed several GARCH type models with different probability distributions governing the model’s innovations. Results have revealed strong persistent levels of volatility and a positive risk-return relationship in the South African market. Given the elaborate use of the GARCH approach of risk estimation in the existing finance literature, this study highlighted several weaknesses of the model. A noteworthy property of the GARCH approach was that the innovation distributions did not affect parameter estimation. Analyzing the GARCH type models, this theory was supported by the majority of the GARCH test results with respect to the volatility dynamics. On the contrary, it was strongly unsupported by the risk-return relationship. More specifically, it was found that while the innovations of the EGARCH (1, 1) model could account for the volatile nature of financial data, asymmetry remained uncaptured. As a result, misestimating of risks occurred, which could lead to inaccurate results. This study highlighted the significance of the innovation distribution of choice and recommended the exploration of different nonnormal innovation distributions to aid with capturing the asymmetry.

Questions regarding the specific factors that drive continuous cash allocations by investors into portfolios of actively managed funds, despite consistent underperformance, continue to remain an inexhaustive aspect of the literature that calls for further investigations. This study assesses the dynamic relationship between fund flow and performance of equity mutual funds in South Africa under different market conditions. The study employs a GMM technique to analyze the panel data of 52 South African equity mutual funds from 2006 to 2019. The analysis found that convexity is prevalent in the flow-performance relationship, where fund contributors in subsequent periods allocate recent underperforming and outperforming funds disproportionate cash. This finding is evident in the lack of significance in the past performance effects on subsequent fund flows. The study found that lagged fund flows, fund size, fund risk, and market risk drive subsequent fund flows under changing conditions of the general market and fund markets. Overall, it is posited that fund contributors and asset administrators adapt to prevailing market dynamics relative to trading decisions. As a result, this affirms the normative guidelines of the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that exogenous factors drive fluctuations in fund flows in South Africa.

Corrections to the article made on October 17, 2022
The previous list of authors Richard Apau, Leward Jeke was changed to Richard Apau, Leward Jeke, Peter Moores-Pitt, Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, October 17, 2022. Explanation in the documents: Authors contributions, Authors explanations.

This study analyzes the effect of performance manipulation on mutual fund flows under different market conditions to provide explanations to the increased flow of investors’ funds to persistently underperforming active mutual fund managers in South Africa. The study employs a system GMM technique to analyze panel data of 52 South African actively managed equity mutual funds for the 2006–2019 period. From the analysis, it is found that past fund flows and fund size constitute a set of fund-level factors with predictive influences on fund flows, while market risk exerts systemic effect on the flow of investors’ assets to fund managers. The results show that market conditions do not impact the relationship between mutual fund flows and performance manipulation, which implies that manipulation strategies implemented by fund managers do not engender increased funds’ flow from asset owners. This study thus concludes that other non-performance factors drive convexity in the relationship between fund flows and performance in South Africa.