The impact of monetary policy and bank competition on banking industry risk: A default analysis

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In the financial system and economy, the banking industry plays a crucial role. Default risk takes central stage in preserving financial stability and needs to be mitigated as it can trigger a crisis. The study examines the combined effects of monetary policy and bank competition on banking defaults. Using a sample of 95 commercial banks in Indonesia between 2009 and 2019, this study employs the Generalized Method of Moments, a two-step dynamic panel-data estimation system, to analyze it. Empirical estimation results show that monetary policy, through an increase in the benchmark interest rate, negatively affects probability of default. The extent of banking stability is also enhanced by monetary policy. Banking competition has a negative and significant effect on probability of default and has a positive effect on the banking distance to default. Furthermore, the combined impact of monetary policy and banking competition positively affects probability of default but has a negative impact on the distance of default. Building on this study, to promote a stable and more efficient banking system, policymakers should develop policies that foster complementary monetary and competition policies.

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    • Table 1. Research variables
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics of variables
    • Table 3. Effect of monetary policy/interest rate (REPO or RATE) on the risk of banking stability (ZSCORE)
    • Table 4. Impact of bank competition (PRH or HHI) on the risk of banking stability (ZSCORE)
    • Table 5. Impact of bank competition (PRH or HHI) on credit risk (NPL)
    • Conceptualization
      Sri Ayomi, Muhammad Zilal Hamzah
    • Data curation
      Sri Ayomi
    • Formal Analysis
      Sri Ayomi, Eleonora Sofilda, Muhammad Zilal Hamzah
    • Methodology
      Sri Ayomi, Muhammad Zilal Hamzah
    • Resources
      Sri Ayomi
    • Writing – original draft
      Sri Ayomi
    • Project administration
      Eleonora Sofilda, Ari Mulianta Ginting
    • Supervision
      Eleonora Sofilda, Muhammad Zilal Hamzah, Ari Mulianta Ginting
    • Validation
      Eleonora Sofilda
    • Writing – review & editing
      Eleonora Sofilda, Muhammad Zilal Hamzah, Ari Mulianta Ginting
    • Investigation
      Muhammad Zilal Hamzah
    • Visualization
      Ari Mulianta Ginting