Households’ credit demand: Main trends and characteristics for Ukraine

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Household demand for credits is quite volatile, which requires constant evaluation of it changes. The purpose of the paper is to identify quantitative signals, the use of which increases the predictability of the credit market development. The study utilizes technical analysis methods for an econometric estimation of trends in household demand for credits in Ukraine for the 2002–2019 period. Based on the analysis of historical market lows, it was argued that with all the negative effects of destabilizing factors, the household demand for loans will not fall below the market support point of UAH 50 million. The financial behavior of Ukrainian households when choosing the type of loan is stable and does not change with fluctuations in GDP. Short-term loans are quite dynamic and largely depend on macroeconomic conditions, provoking market movements. If the relevant direction is supported by medium-term loans, the general market trend will correspond to the GDP trend. The demand for long-term loans is quite inertial, its change does not affect the overall market trend. The constant and variable elements of household demand for credit are highlighted.

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    • Figure 1. Growth trend of the Ukrainian retail lending market for the period 2005–2019
    • Figure 2. Growth trend of the retail loan market superimposed on the Fibonacci grid chart
    • Table 1. Trend correction point indicators, calculated according to the Fibonacci theory (F) and actual (A)
    • Table 2. Pilot testing parameters of the chi-square of H0
    • Table 3. Correlation matrix
    • Table 4. Comparison of partial Fx-criteria of the regression equation
    • Data curation
      Lyudmyla Shkvarchuk
    • Funding acquisition
      Lyudmyla Shkvarchuk
    • Software
      Lyudmyla Shkvarchuk
    • Writing – review & editing
      Lyudmyla Shkvarchuk
    • Conceptualization
      Rostyslav Slav’yuk
    • Formal Analysis
      Rostyslav Slav’yuk
    • Project administration
      Rostyslav Slav’yuk
    • Resources
      Rostyslav Slav’yuk