Research of macroeconomic disables of Ukraine

  • Received September 4, 2018;
    Accepted October 22, 2018;
    Published December 12, 2018
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  • Article Info
    Volume 17 2018, issue #4, pp. 20-29
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    1 articles

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The crisis in the political and economic spheres in Ukraine has led to an aggravation of macroeconomic imbalances, which in turn worsen the socio-economic situation, complicate the moments of doing business, manifestation of violations and instability in the public administration sector and social tension in society. As the result is the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances to a critical point that threatens the normal, gradual development of economic processes that should take place in the economic space of Ukraine. The article deals with the main imbalances indicators of the country's economy and their applicability under modern Ukrainian economic policy conditions. The interconnection of the main macro-instability factors in Ukraine economy and other countries of the world is considered, which allows to identity a number of endogenous (external) and exogenous (internal) factors that create imbalances. The mechanism of imbalances detection is proposed, which combines certain categories, methods, principles and methods of their research. The simulation model for identifying macroeconomic imbalances in the Ukrainian economy was developed, based on which the dynamic properties of the macroeconomic imbalances system were investigated, a short-term indicators forecast was constructed, and assessment of the imbalances probability in the future was implemented. Forecast macroeconomic indicators were estimated that fall into critical areas also the gross external debt, changes in the real effective exchange rate, changes in the share of the export market show that external imbalances and disproportion exist. Other macro indicators that form the imbalances table, according to projected calculations, show trends that are close to the ultimate limits and instability risks which confirms the vulnerability of the country's financial and economic system. The obtained forecasting results will allow to prevent new imbalances through the timely and appropriate rapid response management action.

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    • Рисунок 1. Множина зовнішніх та внутрішніх факторів, що формують дисбаланси в економіці країн світу
    • Рисунок 2. Механізм виявлення дисбалансів в економіці країни
    • Рисунок 3. Діаграма причинно-наслідкових зв’язків моделі виявлення макроекономічних дисбалансів
    • Рисунок 4. Динаміка вартості нерухомості, дол/кв.м
    • Рисунок 5. Динаміка валового накопичення капіталу, млн дол
    • Рисунок 6. Динаміка експорту України, млн дол
    • Рисунок 7. Динаміка світового експорту, млн дол
    • Рисунок 8. Динаміка кількості безробітного населення, млн чол.
    • Рисунок 9. Динаміка фонду оплати праці, млн дол
    • Таблиця 1. Склад змінних моделі виявлення макроекономічних дисбалансів
    • Таблиця 2. Розрахункові значення показників макроекономічних дисбалансів України