Day-ahead power market behavior for a small supplier: case of Turkish market


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The day-ahead power market has become more complex with the allowance of block purchases from private sales companies. Resource handling has become the prominent problem for both energy suppliers and energy distributers. Complexity of the problem forces the approach by each role player in the market. This research handles the market position of a small hydropower plant owner who has negligible effect on market price construction in a complex competition environment. Based on an optimum schedule of three days, this model proposes policies for the power generator to maximize its profits. An MILP model, which uses the day-ahead market price forecasts from a hybrid SARIMA-ANN price forecasting model, is designed to optimize the day-ahead generation schedule. The case application in Turkish power market shows the increase of profit with a reliable generation schedule.

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    • Fig. 1. Day-ahead electricity market
    • Fig. 2. DAM Merit Order
    • Fig. 3. Dispatch model structure
    • Fig. 4. Water inflow forecasts (after Mro is deducted) for the given period
    • Fig. 5. Day-ahead price forecasting results for the studied period
    • Fig. 6. Optimized dispatch schedule for the given period
    • Fig. 7. Optimized dispatch schedule compared with realized day-ahead prices
    • Table 1. Features of most prominent power plant types in Turkey
    • Table 2. Hydro power plant’s technical properties
    • Table 3. Price forecasting model’s performance
    • Table 4. Case results for 4 different dispatch schedules
    • Table 5. Performance improvements