The effects of future climate change shocks on macroeconomic aggregates via agricultural production in Tunisia: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis
-
Author(s)Oussama ZouabiLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8397-6396
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ee.12(1).2021.05
-
Article InfoVolume 12 2021, Issue #1, pp. 53-63
- Cited by
- 596 Views
-
154 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This study aims to analyze the direct and indirect impact of future climate changes on agricultural production and macroeconomic aggregates. A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Tunisian economy has been developed, which takes into account the effects of future climate shocks from 2020 to 2050 to assess the impact of future climate change on agricultural production and macroeconomic aggregates. The model is used to simulate various scenarios.
The results of the climate shock simulations clearly show that long-term citrus fruits production is showing remarkable declines in the most citrus-producing governorates following a significant drop in water level in dams and level of groundwater table. In turn, cereals are the plants most affected by the long-term reduction in rainfall. As for the olive production, it would show a decline reaching –1.263% between 2020 and 2024 in the level of its production following reduction in rainfall. From a macro-economic point of view, climate change will result in the short- and long-term in a deterioration of certain quantities, notably household consumption, entrepreneurial investment, and the unemployment rate, which decreases by –0.139% between 2031 and 2040. These results underline the need for a long-term agricultural policy to reduce or limit the economic and social consequences of climate change and support economic development.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)Q54, O13, F43, D58
-
References23
-
Tables2
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Sector results
- Table 2. Macroeconomic results
-
- Arndt, C., Farmer, W., Strzepek, K., & Thurlow, J. (2012). Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania. Review of Development Economics, 16(3), 378-393.
- Bardhan, K. (1973). Size, Productivity, and Returns to Scale: An Analysis of Farm-Level Data in Indian Agriculture. The Journal of Political Economy, 81, 1370-1386.
- Bosello, F., & Zhang, J. (2005). Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture (Working Paper No. 94.05). Climate Impacts and Policy Division.
- Cline, W. R. (1996). The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment. American Economic Review, 86(5), 1309-1312.
- Cline, W. R. (2007). Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
- Darwin, R., Marinos, T., Lewandrowski, J., & Raneses, A. (1995). World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations Agricultural Economic (An Economic Research Service Report No. 703). United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.
- Decaluwé, B., Martens, A., & Monette, M. (1986). Comment construire un modèle calculable d’équilibre général? Une illustration. L’Actualité économique, 62(3), 442-473.
- Deressa, T. D. (2007). Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture: A Ricardian approach (Policy Research Working Paper No. 4342). World Bank.
- Elshennawy, A., Robinson, S., & Willenbockel, D. (2013). Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis. Economic Modelling, 52(B), 681-689.
- Fischer, G., & Sun, L. (2001). Model-based analysis of future land-use development in China. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 85(1-3), 163-176.
- Gebreegziabher, Z., Stage, J., Mekonnen, A., & Atlaw, A. (2011). Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis (Discussion Paper Series No. EfD DP 11-09). Environment for Development.
- Kumar, K. S. K., & Parikh, J. (2001). Indian Agriculture and Climate Sensitivity. Global Environmental Change, 11(2),147-154.
- Marouani, M. A., & Robalino, D. A. (2012). Assessing interactions among education, social insurance and labor market policies in Morocco. Applied Economics, 44(24), 3149-3167.
- Mendeldhon, R., Nordhaus, W., & Shaw, D. (1994). The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis. American Economic Review, 84(4), 753-771.
- Mendelsohn, R., & Dinar, A. (1999). Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter? World Bank Research Observer, 14(2), 277-293.
- Molua, E. (2006). Turning up the heat on African agriculture: The impact of climate change on Cameroon’s agriculture. The African Journal of Agricultural and Research Economics, 2(1), 45-65.
- Reilly, J., Tubiello, F., McCarl, B., Abler, D., Darwin, R., Fuglie, K., Hollinger, S., Izaurralde, C., Jagtap, S., Jones, J., Learns, L., Ojima, D., Paul, E., Paustian, K., Riha, S., Rosenberg, N., & Rosenzweig, C., (2003). U.S. agriculture and climate change: New results. Climatic Change, 57, 43-69.
- Robinson, S., Willenbockel, D., & Strzepek, K. (2012). A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia. Review of Development Economics, 16(3), 489-502.
- Sanghi, A., Mendeldhon, R., & Dinar, A. (1998). The climate sensitivity of Indian agriculture (World Bank Technical Paper No. 402). Washington, DC.
- Singh, B., El Maayar, M., André, P., Bryant, C. R., & Thouez, J. P. (1998). Impacts of a Ghg-Induced Climate Change on Crop Yields: Effects of Acceleration in Maturation, Moisture Stress and Optimal Temperature. Climatic Change, 38(1), 51-86.
- Wang, J., Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., & Zhang, L. (2008). The Impact of Climate Change on China’s Agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 40(3), 323-337.
- Weber, M., & Hauer, G. (2003). A Regional Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Agriculture. Canadian Public Policy, 29(2), 163-180.
- Zhai, F., Tun, L., & Byambadorj, E. , (2009). A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China. Asian Development Review, 26(1), 206-225.
-
Impact on poverty and income inequality in Malaysia’s economic growth
Rabiul Islam 
,
Ahmad Bashawir Abdul Ghani ,
Irwanshah Zainal Abidin ,
Jeya Malar Rayaiappan
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.15(1).2017.05
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 15, 2017 Issue #1 pp. 55-62 Views: 11240 Downloads: 5119 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯPoverty and income inequality are extreme issues that still exist in Malaysia. Any rise in poverty and income inequality definitely affect economic growth. There are many great efforts taken by the government of Malaysia to eradicate poverty and to reduce the gap of income inequality which occurs since 1970’s. The incidence of poverty and income inequality is higher in rural areas compared to urban areas. This paper is mainly to study the level of poverty and income inequality in Malaysia together with government intervention to develop Malaysia’s economic growth. The research is focused among the working people at Ipoh, Perak. In this paper, questionnaire forms are being distributed to get information regarding the issue of poverty and income inequality. It also looks into the strategies taken by the government of Malaysia to eradicate poverty and income inequality. Few recommendations are given in terms of education policy, financial aid and assistance from government and non-government organization (NGO) to upgrade the standard and quality of living among the poor and lower-income group of people.
-
Impact of inflation on economic growth: evidence from Nigeria
Anthony Olugbenga Adaramola ,
Oluwabunmi Dada
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(2).2020.01
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 17, 2020 Issue #2 pp. 1-13 Views: 7954 Downloads: 4849 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯIn an attempt to examine the influence of inflation on the growth prospects of the Nigerian economy, the study employs the autoregressive distributed lag on the selected variables, i.e. real gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, degree of economy`s openness, money supply, and government consumption expenditures for the period 1980–2018. The study findings indicate that inflation and real exchange rate exert a significant negative impact on economic growth, while interest rate and money supply indicate a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Other variables in the model depict no influence on the economic growth of Nigeria. The causality result shows the unidirectional relationships between interest rate, exchange rate, government consumption expenditures and gross domestic product. However, inflation and the degree of openness show no causal relationship with gross domestic product. As a result, the study recommends that a more pragmatic effort is needed by the monetary authorities to target the inflation vigorously to prevent its adverse effect by ensuring a tolerable rate that would stimulate the economic growth of Nigeria.
-
Formalization of the impact of imbalances in the movement of financial resources on economic growth of countries in Central and Eastern Europe
Serhiy Kozmenko ,
Maxim Korneyev
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/afc.01(1).2017.06
Accounting and Financial Control Volume 1, 2017 Issue #1 pp. 48-58 Views: 6048 Downloads: 1330 TO CITEThe article deals with the impact of financialization on economic growth in countries of Central and Eastern Europe. It determinesthe impact of imbalances in the movement of financial resources caused by financialization on economic growth of these countries. It proves that the implementation of measures aimed at increasing the openness of the economy and maintaining solvent demand have a positive impact on economic growth of the surveyed countries in the long run. It also proves the importance of developing a set of measures of strategic nature regulating imbalances in the movement of financial resources caused by financialization.
