Do economic achievements and environmental consequences coincide? The case of cyclicity

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The significance of green economic growth opens up a new space for studying cyclical development processes, raising the issue of coexistence between sustainable development and the cyclical features of economic growth. The purpose of this study is to identify statistically significant relationships between cyclical components (fluctuations) of economic growth and environmental consequences within national economic systems. The paper utilizes Hodrick–Prescott and Butterworth bandpass filters to detrend dynamic series of ecological and economic development, highlighting cyclical components (fluctuations) that are analyzed for the presence of correlation in the referenced and lag periods (to identify procyclical and lag dynamics). The analysis uses statistical data from the World Bank for Ukraine and Hungary for 1991–2022. The results prove that for Ukraine with an increase in the cyclical component of GDP per capita there is a cyclical increase in pollution indicators, according to the Butterworth filter for NOx emissions from industrial combustion (correlation coefficient 0.72), F-gases emissions from industrial processes (correlation coefficient 0.77), CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (correlation coefficient 0.70). The situation with Hungary is different, and the business cycle is not correlated with pollution fluctuations. The paper does not find a statistically significant relationship between the business cycle and fluctuations in methane (CH4) emissions from waste (Mt CO2e). Overall, most economic and environmental components are procyclical in nature, with the strongest correlation in the reference period for a developing industrial economy (Ukraine). In contrast, there is no such link within a more developed economy (Hungary).

Acknowledgments
This research was conducted within the project “Restructuring of the national economy in the direction of digital transformations for sustainable development” (№0122U001232) funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine.

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    • Figure 1. Medium-term fluctuations between nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from transport (energy) (Mt CO2e) and GDP per capita (current USD) for Ukraine for 1991–2022
    • Figure 2. Medium-term fluctuations between F-gases emissions from industrial processes (Mt CO2e) and GDP per capita (current USD) for Ukraine for 1991–2022
    • Figure 3. Medium-term fluctuations between nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from transport (energy) (Mt CO2e), F-gases emissions from industrial processes (Mt CO2e), and GDP per capita (current USD) for Hungary for 1991–2022
    • Figure B1. Medium-term fluctuations between merchandize imports (current USD) and GDP per capita (current USD) for Ukraine, 1991–2022
    • Figure B2. Medium-term fluctuations between methane (CH4) emissions from waste (Mt CO2e) and GDP per capita (current USD) for Ukraine, 1991–2022
    • Figure B3. Medium-term fluctuations between GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2021 PPP D per kg of oil equivalent) and GDP per capita (current USD) for Ukraine, 1991–2022
    • Table C1. Summary table of values of correlation coefficients K (excluding lags) between a set of economic and environmental indicators and GDP per capita (current USD) for Ukraine, 1991–2022
    • Conceptualization
      Oleksandr Kubatko, Péter Németh, Leonid Melnyk, Natalia Barchenko
    • Data curation
      Oleksandr Kubatko, Volodymyr Lyubchak, Natalia Barchenko
    • Formal Analysis
      Oleksandr Kubatko, Péter Németh, Leonid Melnyk, Volodymyr Lyubchak
    • Methodology
      Oleksandr Kubatko, Leonid Melnyk, Volodymyr Lyubchak, Natalia Barchenko
    • Supervision
      Oleksandr Kubatko
    • Writing – original draft
      Oleksandr Kubatko, Péter Németh, Leonid Melnyk, Volodymyr Lyubchak, Natalia Barchenko
    • Writing – review & editing
      Oleksandr Kubatko, Péter Németh, Leonid Melnyk, Volodymyr Lyubchak, Natalia Barchenko
    • Funding acquisition
      Péter Németh
    • Resources
      Péter Németh
    • Software
      Péter Németh, Volodymyr Lyubchak, Natalia Barchenko
    • Validation
      Péter Németh, Volodymyr Lyubchak, Natalia Barchenko
    • Project administration
      Leonid Melnyk
    • Investigation
      Volodymyr Lyubchak, Natalia Barchenko