Assessment of the Ukrainian economy in 2000–2015 based on the macroeconomic stabilization pentagon (MSP) model


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The main task of the article is to assess the development process of the macroeconomic stabilization in Ukraine during 1997–2016. The work shows the results of author’s own research, carried out using the method of tools given by director of Finance Institute in Warsaw, Professor of Economics Kolodko. This method is based on the assessment of five key macroeconomic indices: GDP rate growth, unemployment rate, inflation rate, state budget balance to GDP, balance of current turnovers to GDP. The results of calculations show that macroeconomic stability level, which is higher than 0.5 was demonstrated by the country only during 1999–2007, and during this period general internal and external stability is kept. Based on the macroeconomic predictions of GDP rate growth, unemployment rate, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and on the data extrapolation of consumer price index, state budget balance, current account balance, Ukraine’s MSP profile for 2018–2020 was constructed.

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    • Figure 1. The macroeconomic stability pentagon
    • Figure 2. Dependence of the Ukraine’s state debt size on state budget deficit during 1997–2016
    • Figure 3. Indicators of internal and external factors impact on the macroeconomic stability in Ukraine in 1997–2016
    • Figure 4. Distribution of MSP for Ukraine in 1997–2016
    • Figure 5. Comparison of MSP profiles in Ukraine at different stages of the economic cycle
    • Table 1. Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics of the MSP model main key indices