Investment evaluation in renewable projects under uncertainty, using real options analysis: the case of wind power industry

The purpose of the current paper is to elaborate the model for assessing cumulative synergetic effect in M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) deals on the basis of a real options approach. The majority of papers on the synergetic effects of M&A deals typically focus on a particular type of synergy, while the current paper proposes a model that accounts for the cumulative simultaneous effect of different types of operating and financial synergies. The methodology of our research is loosely based on Datar-Mathews real option valuation model, which is flexible and intuitive for practitioners. Formulae for assessing eight types of synergy typically arising from M&A deals are developed. They are integrated into a single model to assess their cumulative effect on the M&A deal using a simulation modelling approach. The method was used ex post to find synergy values in two recent M&A deals in the pharmaceutical industry, and produced sound results. The proposed approach to value target companies could be used by firms before an M&A deal in the due diligence process. Using this tool a company can build a bidding strategy and define the maximum premium it can pay for the target.

Regularly changed destructive periods in organizational development mean that the lifecycle exists. A nature of its formation hides a number of important conceptual regularities. One aspect of these trends is relationship between distribution of uncertainty and risks in lifecycle models, underlying motives of their formation and determining participation in development of organizational immunity. A closer definition of these issues is an objective of this research. The paper reviews the history of the lifecycle concept, gives its analysis and possible applications in management studies. In the analytical review of literature, there is an attempt of theoretical systematization for some provisions from the concept on consistency and continuity of stages turnover, on conditions of their identification and a nonlinear path. For discussions of the scientific community, the author presents hypotheses of the available effect of compression (density) in development stages, as well as heterogenic risk concentration. There is an assumption that economic systems have different orders for both the general and short lifecycles. Based on generalized theoretical and methodological provisions of stages in the lifecycle phases, the author attempts to combine functional and evolutionary models. The author also details distinctive features in the process of control over uncertainty and risks in the sequence of development stages.

Traditional methods used for real estate project valuation, such as the static Net Present Value, have some limitations, as these methods do not consider the possibility of a change in the initial conditions of the project or during its development. On the other hand, the real options approach allows for flexibility in evaluating a real estate project, improving the decision-making process as it helps identify the optimal strategy and timing for the construction phases. The paper deals with evaluating an actual real estate project in La Rioja (Spain) using different options to estimate its final Net Present Value. The results show that the real estate project would be profitable under several scenarios, although the valuations can vary significantly among the different types of options. This is because some options add more value to the project than others, depending on their cost and the uncertainty they eliminate. In contrast, the results obtained using the traditional static method would have led a real estate developer to discard the project completely, as its Net Present Value would have been negative. This confirms that the introduction of flexibility in real estate developments creates additional value by allowing developers and investors to dynamically react to changes in the market, thus making better investment decisions and finding real estate investment opportunities that otherwise would not be considered at all.