Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model for long-run US household debt determinants


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US household debt increased on a yearly basis from 1987 to 2007. In addition, household debt in the USA nearly doubled between 2000 and 2007, from $5.6 trillion to $9 trillion. This came to an abrupt end in 2009 with the crash of the financial market. This paper employs the bound test and Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model to determine the long-run relationship between US household debt and consumer prices, housing prices, the unemployment rate, and the lending rate. Unit root tests were conducted first to ascertain the stationarity of the variables. E-views 11 was used in the analysis of the data, which was obtained from Q1: 1990 to Q1: 2007 from the International Monetary Fund and the US FED. It was found that in the long run, there is a negative effect of consumer prices and unemployment on US household debt, while house prices and the lending rate would have a positive effect on household debt.

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    • Figure 1. US household debt
    • Figure 2. US housing price index vs US household debt
    • Figure 3. US unemployment rate vs US household debt
    • Figure 4. US lending rate vs US household debt
    • Figure 5. Akaike information criteria (top 20 models)
    • Figure 6. CUSUM chart
    • Table 1. F-bounds test
    • Table 2. A long-run model
    • Table 3. ARDL error correction regression
    • Table 4. Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test
    • Table 5. Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) test