Has Nigerian agricultural output spurred economic growth: the financing gap model using stepwise regression


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This study examined if the Nigerian agricultural output has spurred economic growth and the best fit agricultural financing gap model for growing the economy. The study explored the dynamics of different technicality approach that stepwise regression has to offer. From the seven baskets of predictors – agricultural guaranteed finance to oil palm, cocoa, groundnuts, fishery, poultry, cattle, roots and tubers – the step fitted three predictors: roots and tubers, cocoa and poultry based on “a b” parameter with the highest “t-stats” and significant p-value and subsequently executed the model using stepwise regression analysis with the help of Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23. The dataset covers a thirty-six year period from 1981 to 2017. The source of the data is from the Central Bank of Nigeria 2018 statistical bulletin. The findings showed that individually, root and tubers has the most contributory impact on economic growth with 81 percent. Jointly followed is cocoa at 87 percent and poultry at 90 percent. The study thus recommends a comparative cost advantage to financing agriculture with the most impactful contribution to economic growth based on the model.

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    • Table 1. Summary of results based on step 1: Y = β +β X ?
    • Table 2. Summary of results based on step 2: Y = β +β X +β X ?
    • Table 3. Summary of results based on step 3: Y = β +β X +β X +β X ?
    • Table 4. Model summary
    • Table A1. ANOVA
    • Table B1. Coefficients