The relationship between sovereign credit rating and trends of macroeconomic indicators

VUСA is a chaotic and rapidly changing business environment that, based on the variability, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of the modern world, transforms the approach of banks to the analysis of financial stability. The aim of the paper is to improve tools for monitoring the impact of VUCA-world conditions on the financial stability of banks, namely a model for studying and analyzing the impact of the modern business space “VUCA” on the financial stability of the country's banks. To test the model, the method of constructing regression equations in multifactor regression analysis is used. For this study, data from some Eastern European countries (Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova) were used, and time series data were used for 10 years from 2010 to 2019.
Having considered the definition of “VUCA-world conditions”, the model of modern business space “VUCA” was developed when analyzing the activity of banks in the studied countries. Drivers, consequences, requirements and macroeconomic indicators of the countries’ activities in the VUСA-world conditions are determined. The VUCA-world conditions also consider the study of key macroeconomic indicators that allow building long-term relationships throughout the value chain. The analysis of the studied Eastern European countries showed that with the increase of factors of GDP growth, GNI per capita growth, research and development costs, foreign direct investment, and net inflow of 1%, the effective ratio of bank capital and assets also increases. The assessment, in contrast to the existing ones, makes it possible to consider the impact of the macroeconomic environment of banks on their financial stability.

The banking system guarantees the economic strength of the country. Its sustainability is due to the sustainability of the credit portfolio. Therefore, scientific research on banking risks is always relevant. Basel recommendations and central bank regulations provide risk minimization in case of default of borrower by creating risk reserve, but the high range of macroeconomic factors creates a basis for creating credit risk. The model, which determines the risk factors, may be structurally the same, but the quality of the influence of factors is different in various countries. The influence of macroeconomic factors is particularly evident in developing countries. The impact of economic factors in different countries is high in GDP of these countries. The article focuses on determining the influence of macroeconomic factors on credit risk of systematic banks in Georgia. The coefficients of individual macroeconomic indicators are calculated by using Pearson’s correlation. The credit risk ratio is taken from the bank’s overdue credits and credit portfolio ratio. Based on the correlation coefficients obtained, the expected risk of shock changes is calculated.

The practical aspects of Ukraine`s economic integration into the EU are still relevant, but are presented with insufficient formalization. The article aims to define the prospects of the Ukrainian integration strategy in the contemporary global space, in particular its Eurointegration strategy. The state and the prospects of the Ukraine’s economic integration into the EU were analyzed and the process of the Ukrainian foreign policy evolution in the European direction was studied. The possible potential membership of Ukraine in the EU was analyzed on the basis of characteristics of current state of the relationships between Ukraine and the member-states. The multi-vector integration course into the EU was stipulated with the aim to renovate the Ukrainian economy effectively; positive and negative aspects of Ukraine’s entrance into the integration association were analyzed. The article offers the measures for practical implementation of Ukraine’s integration intensions on the basis of the analysis of a variety of Ukrainian legislation documents in the field of foreign and domestic policy.