Brexit and the dependence structure among the G7 bank equity markets


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The UK referendum in June 2016 on leaving the European Union had a negative impact on banking stocks across the major financial markets. This has left with a question dealing with the effect of UK banking institutions on the systemic risk on a global scale. This paper aims at investigating the changes in the dependence structure between the UK bank equity returns and its counterparts in the G7 economies. The methodology used is based on the GJR-GARCH volatility spillover model that accounts for asymmetry and leverage, and copula for the time-varying correlation structure among G7 banks. Taking the data on bank equity return indices for G7 economies, the results indicate the symmetric dependence structure between the UK and Italian banks and the asymmetric dependence between the UK and the rest of G7 banks. This is due to the simultaneous decline in bank shares prices across the Union. Such results are important constituents for cross-country portfolio diversification.

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    • Figure 1. Time-varying dependence of best copula fits between G7 and UK bank equity returns
    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics for returns on bank equity indices
    • Table 2. Marginal distribution estimates
    • Table 3. Time-varying dependence estimates
    • Table 4. Dependence structure before and after the Brexit referendum
    • Conceptualization
      Ramzi Nekhili
    • Data curation
      Ramzi Nekhili
    • Investigation
      Ramzi Nekhili
    • Supervision
      Ramzi Nekhili, Kostas Giannopoulos
    • Validation
      Ramzi Nekhili, Kostas Giannopoulos
    • Writing – original draft
      Ramzi Nekhili, Kostas Giannopoulos
    • Writing – review & editing
      Ramzi Nekhili, Kostas Giannopoulos