Strategic portfolio rebalancing: Integrating predictive models and adaptive optimization objectives in a dynamic market
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Author(s)Adeline ClarissaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9701-5915
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Deddy Priatmodjo KoesrindartotoLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2445-822X
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.21(3).2024.25
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Article InfoVolume 21 2024, Issue #3, pp. 304-316
- 156 Views
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30 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Adjusting investment strategy is one of the ways to handle dynamic market conditions. This study proposes a novel portfolio management strategy using appropriate optimization objectives for different stock market trends while also incorporating market trends and stock return predictions The optimization objectives that will be evaluated for different market trends are maximizing the Sharpe ratio, minimizing risk, and minimizing expected shortfall. This study utilizes simulation modelling with various predictive models on building the portfolios. The results show that, in an upward market trend, the strategy is to choose stocks with positive returns, and the objective is to maximize the Sharpe ratio. The portfolio that follows this strategy during upward market trends has greater returns than both the Indonesian Composite Index and LQ45, which serve as stock market benchmarks, with 90% certainty. Meanwhile, during the downward market trend, the strategy is to choose stocks with a negative correlation with the Indonesian Composite Index, and the proper optimization objective is to minimize risk. A portfolio that follows this strategy during downward market trends has greater returns than stock market benchmarks with 95% certainty. Across the evaluation period from 2018 to 2023, the portfolio using the proposed strategy outperforms both stock market benchmarks, with a higher quarterly Sharpe ratio of 0.3047 and cumulative return of 107.90%. The proposed portfolio has a higher quarterly return than the stock market benchmark with 99% certainty. Therefore, the proposed strategy shows a promising result in a dynamic market.
- Keywords
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G11, G17, C61
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References39
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Tables13
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Figures4
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- Figure 1. Research methodology framework
- Figure 2. Boxplot of return prediction squared error
- Figure 3. Boxplot of return volatility prediction squared error
- Figure 4. Proposed portfolio value comparison with IHSG and LQ45
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- Table 1. Final pool of stocks
- Table 2. Time period of the data
- Table 3. Data distribution for training and testing
- Table 4. Hyperparameter list
- Table 5. Data distribution for training and testing volatility prediction
- Table 6. Optimization models
- Table 7. Optimum hyperparameter and accuracy for stock market index prediction
- Table 8. Performance comparison of portfolio with different objectives in upward trend condition
- Table 9. Statistical result on port SR’s return compared to IHSG and LQ45 in upward trend condition
- Table 10. Performance comparison of portfolio with different objectives in downward trend condition
- Table 11. Statistical result on port risk’s return compared to IHSG and LQ45 in downward trend condition
- Table 12. Proposed portfolio comparison with IHSG and LQ45
- Table 13. Statistical result on proposed portfolio’s return compared to IHSG and LQ45
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Perceived health risk, online retail ethics, and consumer behavior within online shopping during the COVID-19 pandemic
Yuniarti Fihartini ,
Arief Helmi ,
Meydia Hassan ,
Yevis Marty Oesman
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/im.17(3).2021.02
Innovative Marketing Volume 17, 2021 Issue #3 pp. 17-29 Views: 4486 Downloads: 1714 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe risk of virus contracting during the COVID-19 pandemic has changed consumer preference for online shopping to meet their daily needs than shopping in brick-and-mortar stores. Online shopping presents a different environment, atmosphere, and experience. The possibility of ethical violations is higher during online than face-to-face transactions. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the influence of perceived health risk and customer perception of online retail ethics on consumer online shopping behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic, involving seven variables, namely perceived health risk, security, privacy, non-deception, reliability fulfillment, service recovery, and online shopping behavior. The data were collected through an online survey by employing the purposive sampling technique to a consumer who has shopped online during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. 315 valid responses were obtained and analyzed through quantitative method using SEM-Amos. The results showed that perceived health risk and four variables of online retail ethics including security, privacy, reliability fulfillment, and service recovery affected online shopping behavior. Meanwhile, non-deception was found to have an insignificant effect. The coefficient value proved perceived health risk to be more dominant in influencing online shopping behavior than the variables of online retail ethics. Thus, consumers pay more concern for their health during online shopping. However, positive consumer perceptions of the behavior of online retail websites in providing services also can encourage consumers to shop online during this pandemic.
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Human resource management in promoting innovation and organizational performance
I Gede Riana ,
Gede Suparna ,
I Gusti Made Suwandana ,
Sebastian Kot 
,
Ismi Rajiani
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.18(1).2020.10
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 18, 2020 Issue #1 pp. 107-118 Views: 3525 Downloads: 842 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯHuman resource management (HRM) is one of the elements enabling an organization to remain competitive in turbulence conditions. The effective practice of HRM makes competent and innovative employees contributing to the achievement of organizational objectives. This study aims to analyze HRM practices in creating innovation and organizational performance. The questionnaire was used to measure the respondents’ perceptions of variables used by a Likert scale. A survey of 126 manager samples and middle managers at export-oriented short and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Bali, Indonesia, was conducted to test the model. The analysis has shown that the proposed model was proven to be compliant with the research hypotheses. HRM significantly affects organizational performance and innovation, and it was found out that innovation can improve organizational performance. However, in the process of simultaneous testing, it was found out that innovation cannot improve organizational performance. The lack of attention to investments in human resources became one of the barriers to SMEs in creating innovation.
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Selection of the right proxy market portfolio for CAPM
Rashmi Chaudhary ,
Priti Bakhshi
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(3).2021.02
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 18, 2021 Issue #3 pp. 16-26 Views: 3184 Downloads: 1553 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe purpose of the paper is to select the right market proxy for calculating the expected return, since critically evaluating proxies or selecting the correct proxy market portfolio is essential for portfolio management because the change in the market portfolio proxy affects returns. In this study, monthly data of equity indices are evaluated to find out the better market proxy. The indices taken are BSE 30 (Sensex), Nifty 50, BSE 100, BSE 200, and BSE 500. The macroeconomic variables used in the study are industrial production index (IIP), consumer price index (CPI), money supply (M1), and exchange rate in India. To avoid the influence of COVID-19, the research period was from January 2013 to December 2019 to critically evaluate these proxies in order to find the most appropriate market proxy. This paper reveals a noteworthy relationship between stock market returns and macroeconomic factors, while suggesting that the BSE 500 is a better choice for all equity indices, as the index also shows a significant relationship with all macroeconomic variables. BSE500 is a composite index comprising all sectors with low, mid and large cap securities, therefore it reflects the impact of macroeconomic factors most efficiently, taking it as a market proxy. This study was carried out in the context of India and can be replicated for other countries.
