Analysis of tail dependence structure and risk spillover between cryptocurrencies

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Understanding the interconnectedness of cryptocurrencies based on their underlying technology is crucial for effective portfolio management and risk assessment. To establish the tail dependence structure and risk spillover between cryptocurrencies, this paper used the daily closing prices of the top eight proof-of-stake-based cryptocurrencies and the top ten proof-of-work-based cryptocurrencies from September 22, 2020 to April 7, 2023. This study applied the C-vine copulas and CoVaR measures. The outcome of the copula findings for the proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies illustrates that Ethereum exhibits strong resilience during market downturns, acting as a buffer for other proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies with pairwise tail dependence coefficients ranging from 0.45 to 0.67. Bitcoin Cash emerges as a portfolio diversifier within the proof-of-work ecosystem, absorbing 45% to 75% of volatility spillovers. However, from the proof-of-stake CoVaR analysis, ETH, DOT, and MATIC rank highest in systematic importance before April 2022, signifying their significant risk transmission role, and for the proof-of-work CoVaR analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) is the primary risk transmitter in the cryptocurrency portfolio, having a positive CoVaR of 0.15. Ethereum and Bitcoin are identified as the dominant risk transmitters within their respective groups, highlighting their potential to amplify systemic risk. This study provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers navigating the increasingly complex cryptocurrency landscape.

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    • Figure 1. C-vine proof-of-stake tree 1 for the dependence structure
    • Figure 2. C-vine tree dependence structure for proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies
    • Figure 3. Copula ACF plot (proof-of-stake)
    • Figure 4. Copula ACF plot (proof-of-work)
    • Figure 5. CoVaR for proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies
    • Figure 6. Delta CoVaR for proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies
    • Figure 7. CoVaR for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies
    • Figure 8. Delta CoVaR for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies
    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics for PoS cryptocurrencies
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics for PoW cryptocurrencies
    • Table 3. C-vine dependence analysis for proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies
    • Table 4. C-vine dependence analysis for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies
    • Data curation
      Abdulrazak Abdulrahman Abubakar
    • Investigation
      Abdulrazak Abdulrahman Abubakar
    • Methodology
      Abdulrazak Abdulrahman Abubakar
    • Visualization
      Abdulrazak Abdulrahman Abubakar
    • Writing – original draft
      Abdulrazak Abdulrahman Abubakar
    • Writing – review & editing
      Abdulrazak Abdulrahman Abubakar, Jules Clement Mba, Abieyuwa Ohonba
    • Conceptualization
      Jules Clement Mba, Abieyuwa Ohonba
    • Project administration
      Jules Clement Mba, Abieyuwa Ohonba
    • Supervision
      Jules Clement Mba, Abieyuwa Ohonba
    • Validation
      Abieyuwa Ohonba