Fraud triangle factors and financial statement fraud: The moderating role of earnings management in an emerging market

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Financial statement fraud (FSF) continues to undermine investor confidence, particularly in emerging markets where governance enforcement remains uneven. This study examines how Fraud Triangle factors influence FSF and whether earnings management strengthens these relationships in Vietnam. Using a two-step system GMM regression on 138 listed non-financial firms over 2019–2022 to address potential endogeneity concerns, the results show that financial distress significantly increases fraud risk. Firm performance is also positively associated with fraud, implying that pressure to maintain good results may contribute to misreporting. State ownership and foreign ownership are both negatively associated with FSF, indicating that monitoring by these shareholders constrains fraudulent behavior. Industry characteristics proxied by receivables intensity are positively related to fraud, suggesting greater opportunity for manipulation in revenue-related accounts. In contrast, liquidity and auditor reputation do not exhibit statistically significant effects, suggesting that external audit prestige alone may be insufficient to constrain fraudulent reporting in transitional regulatory environments. Importantly, earnings management is positively associated with FSF and significantly strengthens the impact of financial distress on fraud, indicating that discretionary accruals amplify the translation of financial pressure into misreporting. These findings point to the importance of improving financial management, enhancing transparency, and strengthening regulatory oversight to reduce fraud risk and support more effective detection by policymakers, auditors, and investors.

Acknowledgment(s)
This research is funded by the University of Economics and Law, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City/VNU-HCM

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    • Table 1. Variable definitions and measurements
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics of variables
    • Table 3. Descriptive statistics by audit firm reputation variable
    • Table 4. Pearson correlation coefficient matrix
    • Table 5. Results of multicollinearity test between variables
    • Table 6. Two-step System GMM regression
    • Conceptualization
      Xuan Thuy Ho
    • Formal Analysis
      Xuan Thuy Ho, Hong Khanh Chi Pham
    • Funding acquisition
      Xuan Thuy Ho
    • Methodology
      Xuan Thuy Ho, Tran Thanh Nga Pham
    • Project administration
      Xuan Thuy Ho, Ngoc Thanh Vy Vo
    • Supervision
      Xuan Thuy Ho
    • Writing – original draft
      Xuan Thuy Ho, Thu Hien Le
    • Writing – review & editing
      Xuan Thuy Ho, Thi Van Le, Hong Khanh Chi Pham, Tran Thanh Nga Pham, Ngoc Thanh Vy Vo
    • Data curation
      Thu Hien Le, Thi Van Le, Ngoc Thanh Vy Vo
    • Investigation
      Thu Hien Le, Hong Khanh Chi Pham
    • Software
      Thu Hien Le, Hong Khanh Chi Pham, Ngoc Thanh Vy Vo
    • Visualization
      Thu Hien Le, Hong Khanh Chi Pham
    • Resources
      Thi Van Le, Tran Thanh Nga Pham, Ngoc Thanh Vy Vo
    • Validation
      Thi Van Le, Tran Thanh Nga Pham