Understanding Thailand’s green bond market: Issuance dynamics, return-risk performance, and their relationship with issuance volume

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Thailand’s green bond market is expanding but remains less developed than in advanced economies, raising questions about issuance patterns and whether return–risk conditions support broader market growth. This study aims to analyze issuance dynamics in Thailand’s green bond market, evaluate return and risk performance, assess the relationship between return, risk, and issuance volume, and classify green bonds based on their risk characteristics. The sample included 62 green bonds registered with the Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA) during 2019–2025. Descriptive statistics are used to summarize issuance and performance indicators; return measures include current yield, yield to maturity, holding period return, and annual percentage rate; risk is assessed using seven variables capturing default, liquidity, interest rate, inflation, and reinvestment risks, and hierarchical clustering is applied to classify bonds by risk level. Results show that private-sector issuers dominate the market, accounting for 79% of outstanding green bond value (103.216 billion baht), followed by state-owned enterprises (12%) and foreign issuers (9%). Current yield ranges from 1.62% to 5.55% (mean 3.40%), while yield to maturity ranges from 1.75% to 8.86% (mean 3.20%). Credit spreads range from 0.41% to 3.49% (mean 1.46%), and duration ranges from 0.019 to 10.07 years (mean 3.35), indicating generally moderate risk conditions. SEM analysis further reveals a significant positive relationship between risk and return, while issuance volume is not significantly related to either factor. Cluster analysis identifies four distinct risk groups – low, medium, high, and highest – offering a practical risk classification for investors and policymakers to support sustainable finance development in Thailand.

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    • Figure 1. Thai green bond market structure
    • Figure 2. Green bond, categorized by yield
    • Figure 3. Confirmatory factor analysis
    • Figure 4. SEM
    • Figure 5. Dendrogram AIC and clustering efficiency for return
    • Figure 6. Green bond return group clustering
    • Figure 7. Dendrogram AIC and clustering efficiency for risk
    • Figure 8. Green bond risk group clustering
    • Table 1. Variables used and measurement
    • Table 2. Return descriptive statistics
    • Table 3. Risk descriptive statistics
    • Table 4. Credit rating descriptive characteristics
    • Conceptualization
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul, Panern Intara
    • Data curation
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn
    • Formal Analysis
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul
    • Investigation
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul, Panern Intara
    • Methodology
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul
    • Resources
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul
    • Software
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul
    • Supervision
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul, Panern Intara
    • Validation
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Panern Intara
    • Visualization
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul
    • Writing – original draft
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul, Panern Intara
    • Writing – review & editing
      Bhannawat Wanganusorn, Chirayu Hantrakul, Panern Intara
    • Project administration
      Chirayu Hantrakul