Enhancing cryptocurrency price forecasting: Performance evaluation of baseline versus Bayesian-optimized LSTM models

The purpose of this article is to analyze the effect that halving has on the fair market value of bitcoins. The main hypothesis of the study is that the decline in the cost of miners’ remuneration for mining is a significant factor that affects the price of cryptocurrencies. The article examines the factors that regulate the issuing process. The significance of a limited supply of bitcoin is detailed in the article, as well as the mechanism for the implementation of the issue of new bitcoins. The study compares the historical inflation data of the US dollar and the projected data on the inflation of bitcoin. The article analyzes the main technical element of cryptocurrency – halving – when the miner’s reward is halved. This analysis includes the mathematical methods of statistical data processing. Research results show that reducing remuneration by half every four years leads to an increased market value of the cryptocurrency. This relationship is clearly illustrated by the Kendall rank correlation method. The results of the study can have a significant impact on the fundamental assessment of bitcoin and can also enable investors to assess any of the existing and operating cryptocurrencies according to this method.

The emergence of Bitcoin in 2009 has received considerable attention surrounding the validity of cryptocurrencies as a viable and, in some jurisdictions, a legal currency alternative. Despite widespread concern that these cryptocurrencies are fostering the environment within which a substantial bubble can occur, it is important to analyze whether these new assets are behaving similarly to major international currencies. This paper investigates the effects of international monetary policy changes on bitcoin returns using a GARCH (1.1) estimation model. The results indicate that monetary policy decisions based on interest rates taken by the Federal Open Market Committee in the United States significantly impact upon bitcoin returns. After controlling for international effects, we find significant evidence of volatility effects driven by United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Japanese quantitative easing announcements. These results show that, despite its nature and ideals, bitcoin seems to be subject to the same economic factors as traditional fiat currencies, and is not entirely unaffected by government policies. This result has implications for investors using bitcoin as a hedging or diversification tool. In addition, we contribute to the existing debate regarding the classification of bitcoin as an asset class, by illustrating that bitcoin volatility exhibits various reactions that bear resemblance to both currency pairs and store-of-value assets.

The current global financial market is witnessing the activation of cryptocurrency as a payment instrument and a means of accumulation. However, the risks of money laundering, terrorism financing and tax evasion that cryptocurrency transactions imply lead to the need to implement their state regulation, an important component of which is tax control.
Therefore, the purpose of the article is to substantiate the value orientations when forming the system of cryptocurrency transactions tax control in Ukraine taking the positive experience of developed countries into account. The scientific results of the study consist in the emphasizing structural, functional, systemic and institutional approaches to understanding tax control, which became the basis for identifying the features of cryptocurrency transactions as a tax control object.
It was revealed that the lack of personalization of the agreement parties, the relatively high level of information security, free international turnover and a decentralized payment system are the factors of the cryptocurrency market further development. On the other hand, this leads to the loss of tax revenues for Ukrainian budgetary system, taking into account the forecasted trends in the development of the cryptocurrency market by 2022 through methods of sums, least squares and expert estimates. Given the institutional approach to the understanding of tax control, an institutional structure of the cryptocurrency transactions tax control in Ukraine is proposed.
It is established that domestic state institutions are able to carry out tax control over these transactions. It is also determined that introducing fiscal control will result in the receipt of additional revenues by budgets, reduction of shadow economy, counteraction to cybercrime and terrorism financing.
The practical importance of the results is in the need to form an effective system of cryptocurrency transactions tax control as a function of public administration.
It has been determined that transactions on cryptocurrency supply, on the determining exchange rates and transactions on cryptocurrency disposal should be an object of tax control in Ukraine. Mining transactions, receipt of income (profits) in the cryptocurrency are subject to general taxes, depending on the taxpayer’s legal status, in particular, personal income tax, corporate income tax and a unified social tax (UST). Taking into account the EU recommendations on the non-application of value added tax in the cryptocurrency transactions taxation, it is not appropriate to implement it in this area. Establishing tax control over cryptocurrency transactions will expand the powers of state authorities that are empowered to control observing financial discipline by economic agents in Ukraine and the financial capabilities of state and local budgets.