Forecasting vocational workforce readiness in Indonesia’s new capital: A system dynamics and foresight approach
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/kpm.09(2).2025.14
-
Article InfoVolume 9 2025, Issue #2, pp. 200-216
- 37 Views
-
1 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
This study aims to forecast how the relocation of Indonesia’s new capital to East Kalimantan will impact regional economic development, labor market dynamics, and vocational education readiness. Employing an integrated system dynamics and foresight methodology, the study models the interdependencies among economic transformation, industrial shifts, and future workforce requirements. The analysis combines qualitative foresight data, gathered through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with 66 key stakeholders (16 government and education policymakers, 30 leaders of large industries, and 20 SME representatives), with system modeling to simulate long-term trends and policy impacts. The simulation results indicate a significant structural transition from a resource-based economy to a service-oriented and low-carbon economic model, leading to a sharp projected increase in labor demand across green and digital-intensive sectors. These projections underscore the urgent need for a vocational education system that is more adaptive, technologically relevant, and environmentally aligned. However, anticipated challenges such as persistent skill mismatches, inadequate stakeholder engagement in policy design, and outdated curricula may hinder vocational institutions from effectively responding to emerging labor market demands. This study highlights the strategic importance of modernizing vocational education and establishing stronger collaborative frameworks among government, industry, and educational institutions. By forecasting workforce readiness under multiple development scenarios, the research provides actionable insights to support evidence-based policymaking and the creation of a resilient, future-oriented innovation ecosystem in East Kalimantan.
Acknowledgments
This research has been funded by the Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education Agency (LPDP) in 2024. We extend our sincere gratitude to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Research, and Technology of the Republic of Indonesia, as well as the Directorate General of Vocational Education through the Directorate of Partnerships and Alignment of the Business and Industrial World (Mitrasdudi), for their valuable support. Furthermore, we would like to express our appreciation to the Regional Government of East Kalimantan Province for their continuous assistance and cooperation.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)J24, O25, L52, Q01
-
References60
-
Tables4
-
Figures4
-
- Figure 1. Scenario planning with STEEPV
- Figure 2. Causal loop diagram of economics and employment
- Figure 2. Causal loop diagram of economics and employment
- Figure 4. Stock flow diagram for vocational education
-
- Table 1. Stock & flow diagram symbols
- Table 2. Historical and projected GRDP of East Kalimantan (2010–2045) (in trillion Rupiah)
- Table 3. Baseline scenario assumptions for GRDP, investment, and capital-labor ratio (KLR)
- Table 4. Baseline and policy scenario assumptions for GRDP, investment, and capital-labor ratio (KLR)
-
- Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. New York: Crown Publishing Group – A Division of Random House, Inc.
- Achmad, G. N., Yudaruddin, R., Nugroho, B. A., Fitrian, Z., Suharsono, S., Adi, A. S., Hafsari, P., & Fitriansyah, F. (2023). Government support, eco-regulation and eco-innovation adoption in SMEs: The mediating role of eco-environmental. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 9(4), 100158.
- Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323-351.
- Aghion, P., Akcigit, U., & Howitt, P. (2014). What Do We Learn from Schumpeterian Growth Theory? In Aghion, P., & Durlauf, S. N. (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, 2, 515-563.
- Ariyani, L. F., Widjaja, S. U. M., Wahyono, H., Haryono, A., Rusdi, J. F., & Pratama, C. B. A. (2021). Vocational education phenomena research method. MethodsX, 8, 101537.
- Artan, S., Erdogan, S., Recepoğlu, M., Çakir, S. Ç., Hayaloğlu, P., & Çakir, M. A. (2024). Does structural change matter for sustainable development in newly industrialized countries? Fresh evidence from a new sustainability indicator. Environmental Development, 52, 101094.
- Barro, R. J. (2001). Human capital and growth. American Economic Review, 91(2), 12-17.
- Bassanini, A., & Scarpetta, S. (2002). Does human capital matter for growth in OECD countries? A pooled mean-group approach. Economics Letters, 74(3), 399-405.
- Becker, G. S. (1964). Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. University of Chicago Press.
- Blinova, T., Bylina, S., & Rusanovskiy, V. (2015). Vocational Education in the System of Determinants of Reducing Youth Unemployment: Interregional Comparisons. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 214, 526-534.
- BPS-Statistics Indonesia (2022). Statistics of Education 2022. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik Republik Indonesia.
- Cheng, K. (2017). Advancing 21st Century Competencies in East Asian Education Systems. Asia Society.
- Cook, C. N., Inayatullah, S., Burgman, M. A., Sutherland, W. J., & Wintle, B. A. (2014). Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 29, 531-541.
- Dezfuli, F. B., Doostkouei, S. G., Fathabadi, M., & Mousavi, M. H. (2025). Effect of structural economic transformation on the environment: Insights on transition from goods-based to service-based economies in OECD countries. Journal of Environmental Management, 373, 123200.
- DiMaggio, P. J., & Powell, W. W. (1983). The iron cage revisited: Institutional isomorphism and collective rationality in organizational fields. American Sociological Review, 48(2), 147-160.
- Dogan Basar, B., Ekşi, İ. H., & Yudaruddin, R. (2025). Is ownership structure effective in the relationship between ESG and bank performance? Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 33(3), 347-358.
- Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
- Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
- Forrester, J. W., & Forrester, J. A. Y. W. (2011). Industrial Dynamics After the First Decade. Management Science, 14(7), 398-415.
- Ghaffarzadegan, N., & Richardson, G. P. (2011). How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review, 27(1), 22-44.
- Goldin, C. (2016). Human Capital. In Diebolt, C., & Haupert, M. (Eds.), Handbook of Cliometrics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
- Hanushek, E. A., & Woessmann, L. (2020). Education, knowledge capital, and economic growth. In Bradley, S., & Green, C. (Eds.), The Economics of Education (pp. 171-182). Academic Press.
- Hanushek, E. A., Woessmann, L., & Zhang, L. (2011). General education, vocational education, and labor-market outcomes over the lifecycle (IZA Discussion Paper No. 6083).
- Hardani, R., Setyadi, D., Mintarti, S, Abidin, Z., & Yudaruddin, R. (2025). Linking the balanced scorecard to sustainability: An empirical study of local government companies. International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 8(3), 3005-3014.
- Harihanto. (2023). Potential Social Impacts of the Capital Relocation Plan of the Republic of Indonesia: Identification and Management Alternatives. Hong Kong Journal of Social Sciences, 61, 157-168.
- Hilmawan, R., Aprianti, Y., Vo, D. T. H., Yudaruddin, R., Bintoro, R. F. A., Fitrianto, Y., & Wahyuningsih, N. (2023a). Rural development from village funds, village-owned enterprises, and village original income. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 9(4), 100159.
- Hilmawan, R., Aprianti, Y., Yudaruddin, R., Bintoro, R. F. A., Suharsono, Fitrianto, Y., & Wahyuningsih, N. (2023b). Public sector innovation in local government and its impact on development outcomes: Empirical evidence in Indonesia. Heliyon, 9(12), e22833.
- Inderanata, R. N., & Sukardi, T. (2023). Investigation study of integrated vocational guidance on work readiness of mechanical engineering vocational school students. Heliyon, 9(2), e13333.
- Jones, C. I., & Vollrath, D. (2013). Introduction to Economic Growth. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
- Lane, D. C. (2000). Should System Dynamics be Described as a ‘Hard’ or ‘Deterministic’ Systems Approach? Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 17(1), 3-22.
- Langi, C. R., Zulfikar, A. L., Maulana, I., Widayati, N., & Yudaruddin, R. (2023). The impact of social aid on poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic: Empirical evidence from Indonesia. Public and Municipal Finance, 12(2), 104-116.
- https://doi.org/10.21511/pmf.12(2).2023.09
- Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
- Mcgrath, S. (2012). Vocational Education and Training for Development: a policy needing a theory? International Journal of Educational Development, 32(5), 623-631.
- Mcgrath, S., & Yamada, S. (2023). International Journal of Educational Development Skills for development and vocational education and training: Current and emergent trends. International Journal of Educational Development, 102, 102853.
- Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing.
- Miles, I., Saritas, O., & Sokolov, A. (Eds.) (2016). Intervention and Impact: Outcomes, Action and Evaluation. In Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation (pp. 237-254). Science, Technology and Innovation Studies. Cham: Springer.
- Muja, A., Blommaert, L., Gesthuizen, M., & Wolbers, M. H. J. (2019). The vocational impact of educational programs on youth labor market integration. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 64, 100437.
- Musviyanti, Khairin, F. N., Bone, H., Syakura, M. A., & Yudaruddin, R. (2022). Structure of local government budgets and local fiscal autonomy: Evidence from Indonesia. Public and Municipal Finance, 11(1), 79-89.
- North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- OECD. (2019). OECD Skills Outlook 2019: Thriving in a Digital World. Paris: OECD Publishing.
- OECD. (2021). The Digital Transformation of SMEs, OECD Studies on SMEs and Entrepreneurship. Paris: OECD Publishing.
- Perwira, I., Harijanti, S. D., Susanto, M., & Adhihernawan, M. Y. (2024). Capital city relocation in Indonesia: compromise failure and potential dysfunction. Cogent Social Sciences, 10(1).
- Psacharopoulos, G., & Patrinos, H. A. (2018). Returns to investment in education: a decennial review of the global literature. Education Economics, 26(5), 445-458.
- Riadi, S. S., Hapsari, P., Budiman, P. W., Anwar, K., & Yudaruddin, R. (2023). The impact of knowledge management on SMES’ performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: Assessing the significance of digital variables. Knowledge and Performance Management, 7(1), 76-90.
- Richardson, G. P. (1991). Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
- Rodrik, D. (2007). One economics, many recipes: Globalization, institutions, and economic growth. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
- Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
- Saleh, M., Oliva, R., Erik, C., & Davidsen, P. I. (2010). A comprehensive analytical approach for policy analysis of system dynamics models. European Journal of Operational Research, 203, 673-683.
- Schultz, T. W. (1971). Investment in Human Capital: The Role of Education and Research. New York: The Free Press.
- Scott, W. R. (2001). Institutions and organizations. Sage Publications.
- Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
- Suharno, Pambudi, N. A., & Harjanto, B. (2020). Vocational education in Indonesia: History, development, opportunities, and challenges. Children and Youth Services Review, 115, 105092.
- Surahman, Shee, H., Fitrian, Z., Adi, A. S., & Yudaruddin, R., (2023). The effect of digital transformation and innovation on SMEs’ performance in times of COVID-19. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 21(4), 84-100.
- Susantono, B., Berawi, M. A., & Sari, M. (2024). Smart City Framework for Nusantara Capital City Development. In Lytras, M. D., Alkhaldi, A., & Malik, S. (Ed.), The Emerald Handbook of Smart Cities in the Gulf Region: Innovation, Development, Transformation, and Prosperity for Vision 2040 (pp. 481-514). Leeds: Emerald Publishing Limited.
- Syaban, A. S. N., & Appiah-Opoku, S. (2023). Building Indonesia’s new capital city: an in-depth analysis of prospects and challenges from current capital city of Jakarta to Kalimantan. Urban, Planning and Transport Research, 11(1).
- Tabbron, G., & Yang, J. (1997). The interaction between technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and economic development in advanced countries. International Journal of Educational Development, 17(3), 323-334.
- Wiebe, K., Zurek, M., Lord, S., Brzezina, N., Gabrielyan, G., Libertini, J., Loch, A., Thapa-parajuli, R., Vervoort, J., & Westhoek, H. (2018). Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 43, 545-570.
- Wolstenholme, E. F. (1990). System Enquiry: A System Dynamics Approach. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
- Yusuf, A. A., Roos, E. L., Horridge, J. M. & Hartono, D. (2023). Indonesian capital city relocation and regional economy’s transition toward less carbon-intensive economy: An inter-regional CGE analysis. Japan and the World Economy, 68, 101212.