Selection of indicators for the scenario modeling of the progressive countries’ economic development


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The study aims to improve methodical approach for formalizing the sustainable development models for progressive countries by suggesting the relevant representative indicators. The study is performed using the statistical approach to determine the suitability of data for further modeling using indicators of variation, taking into account the normality of the population distribution as the main criteria of the data set quality. The study highlights the results of processing measurable quantitative economic, social, and environmental indicators of different countries that may be used for identifying possible changes in the world’s sustainable development. The authors select the indicators for scenario modeling of the sustainable development of Brazil, India, China, Republic of Korea, and the USA, as well as suggest a set of relevant affecting factors. To confirm the meaningful impact of different factors, such as biological balance, conflicts intensity, corruption perception and other, a neural network is developed, and its preliminary training on the test data is conducted. The obtained results can be used to predict economic changes in the world under the influence of specific economic, social, and environmental factors.

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    • Figure 1. Diagram of an obtained neural network
    • Table 1. The main methods and types of scenario modeling
    • Table 2. The primary set of indicators for scenario modeling of the countries’ sustainable development
    • Table 3. List of indicators for forecasting the countries’ economic development
    • Table 4. Main factors affecting the indicators of the countries’ development
    • Conceptualization
      Michael Zgurovsky
    • Funding acquisition
      Michael Zgurovsky, Oleg Gavrysh, Sergiy Solntsev, Anna Kukharuk, Natalia Skorobogatova
    • Methodology
      Michael Zgurovsky
    • Supervision
      Michael Zgurovsky, Oleg Gavrysh
    • Investigation
      Oleg Gavrysh, Sergiy Solntsev, Anna Kukharuk
    • Project administration
      Oleg Gavrysh
    • Validation
      Oleg Gavrysh
    • Software
      Sergiy Solntsev
    • Visualization
      Sergiy Solntsev
    • Writing – review & editing
      Sergiy Solntsev, Anna Kukharuk
    • Data curation
      Anna Kukharuk
    • Formal Analysis
      Anna Kukharuk, Natalia Skorobogatova
    • Writing – original draft
      Anna Kukharuk, Natalia Skorobogatova
    • Resources
      Natalia Skorobogatova