Modeling the possibilities of economic adaptation of trade enterprises and hospitality industry in the context of epidemiological zoning

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The article identifies the negative impact of the coronavirus crisis on the expected efficiency of retail, hotel, restaurant and tourism businesses. The aim of the paper is to develop a methodological algorithm for short-term forecasting of opportunities to restore the effective activity of enterprises under quarantine restrictions.
Seasonal component adjustments were performed in the Demetra+ software. Modeling the recovery of effective activity included an assessment of the influence of macroparameters on the dynamics of an enterprise’s sales volumes under pre-quarantine conditions, defining the size of economic losses, determining coefficients of macroindicators’ dynamic influence under conditions of differentiation of quarantine restrictions, constructing a matrix of multiple regression equations, which clearly demonstrates the forecast prospects for restoring the effective activity of enterprises, depending on the quarantine zoning. A situational model of the possible scenario dynamics of enterprises’ trade turnover was built taking into account the quarantine zoning and the logical transformational algorithms of influence on variable system parameters caused by it. The thermometer principle was used as a fuzzy logic tool to consider the specifics of the dynamics of various linguistic variables and bring the forecast model as close as possible to the epidemiological zoning logic. Approbation of the methodology revealed a clear correlation between the severity of quarantine restrictions and the expected growth of enterprise activity amounts. In a more advanced form, the method should be used for short-term macroeconomic forecasting when determining quarantine restrictions and epidemiological zoning.

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    • Figure 1. Indicator dynamics of entrepreneurial confidence of retail trade, hotel and restaurant and tourism business in 2016–2019
    • Figure 2. Application of the thermometer principle to determine the correction factors
    • Table 1. Expected changes in sales of goods (services) by enterprises (% of the total number of enterprises) in 2016–2019
    • Table 2. Quarterly dynamics of individual macroeconomic indicators in Ukraine in 2016–2019
    • Table 3. Comparison of forecast (trend) and statistically significant values of expected changes in sales of goods (services) by enterprises of retail trade, hotel and restaurant and tourism business in 2020
    • Table 4. Modeling intermediate impact coefficients based on the results of comparing trend and statistically significant values of individual macro indicators in the second quarter of 2020
    • Table 5. The system of dependence equations of the turnover dynamics of retail trade, hotel and restaurant and tourism business on the selected macroparameters under various pandemic scenarios
    • Table 6. Comparison of expected changes in the number of employed in retail trade, hotel and restaurant and tourism business according to the 2016–2019 trend analysis and in connection with the lockdown in 2020 (% of the total number of enterprises)
    • Conceptualization
      Iryna Melnyk, Yuriy Turyanskyy, Ihor Mishchuk
    • Funding acquisition
      Iryna Melnyk, Yuriy Turyanskyy, Ihor Mishchuk, Nataliіa Mitsenko, Roksolana Godunko
    • Investigation
      Iryna Melnyk, Ihor Mishchuk, Nataliіa Mitsenko
    • Methodology
      Iryna Melnyk, Yuriy Turyanskyy, Nataliіa Mitsenko
    • Project administration
      Iryna Melnyk, Nataliіa Mitsenko
    • Resources
      Iryna Melnyk, Yuriy Turyanskyy, Ihor Mishchuk, Nataliіa Mitsenko, Roksolana Godunko
    • Software
      Iryna Melnyk, Yuriy Turyanskyy, Ihor Mishchuk
    • Supervision
      Iryna Melnyk, Yuriy Turyanskyy, Nataliіa Mitsenko
    • Writing – original draft
      Iryna Melnyk, Nataliіa Mitsenko
    • Writing – review & editing
      Yuriy Turyanskyy, Ihor Mishchuk
    • Visualization
      Ihor Mishchuk, Roksolana Godunko
    • Formal Analysis
      Nataliіa Mitsenko
    • Validation
      Nataliіa Mitsenko, Roksolana Godunko
    • Data curation
      Roksolana Godunko