COVID-19 and domestic trade in Bulgaria
-
Author(s)Lyubomir TodorovLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7781-9549
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.20(4).2022.09
-
Article InfoVolume 20 2022, Issue #4, pp. 111-126
- 270 Views
-
56 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Domestic trade is an essential contributor to economic growth and an indicator of the people’s welfare. It is vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis due to the pandemic itself and the government’s measures against it. An accurate estimation of the pandemic influence on domestic trade is needed for effective economic intervention in support of the economic recovery and improvement of the well-being of the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the magnitude and timing of the COVID-19 impact on domestic trade in Bulgaria. The data used in the study covered the period 2000–2020 with monthly data for the indicator “Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria.” This paper employed unit root tests, autocorrelation function analysis, building, estimating, forecasting ARIMA and ARCH models, and intervention analysis. The results revealed that Bulgarian domestic trade followed the difference-stationary process as unit root tests failed to reject the random walk hypothesis. The COVID-19 impact on domestic trade proved to be long-lasting and has permanently decreased its level since March 2020. The timing of the impact coincided with the government’s measures against the pandemic. The drop in the volume of domestic trade was substantial and estimated at 19.3%. Following the nature of domestic trade, determined and decisive intervention is necessary if the Bulgarian government seeks to expand domestic demand and successfully procure economic recovery.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)C12, C22, C51
-
References41
-
Tables7
-
Figures10
-
- Figure A1. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (Indices, 2015 = 100%)
- Figure A2. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs)
- Figure A3. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs)
- Figure A4. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first differences)
- Figure A5. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first differences)
- Figure A6. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, seasonal differences)
- Figure A7. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, seasonal differences)
- Figure A8. Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
- Figure A9. ACF for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
- Figure A10. Observed forecast error for the turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria (logs, first, and seasonal differences)
-
- Table A1. Seasonal unit root test
- Table A2. Estimation results for (5-6) model
- Table A3. Residuals’ ACF for (5-6) model
- Table A4. Squared residuals’ ACF for (5-6) model
- Table A5. Estimation results for (5-6) final model
- Table A6. Residuals’ ACF for (5-6) final model
- Table A7. Squared residuals’ ACF for (5-6) final model
-
- Ando, M., Kimura, F., & Obashi, A. (2021). International production networks are overcoming covid-19 shocks: Evidence from Japan’s machinery trade. Asian Economic Papers, 20(3), 40-72.
- Aohan, L. (2020). An Empirical Analysis of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Based on Holt-winters. ACM International Conference Proceeding Series (pp. 54-57).
- Beaulieu, J., & Miron, J. (1992). Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data (NBER Working Paper No. t0126).
- Bekkers, E., & Koopman, R. B. (2022). Simulating the trade effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Scenario analysis based on quantitative trade modelling. The World Economy, 45(2), 445-467.
- Bonadio, B., Huo, Z., Levchenko, A. A., & Pandalai-Nayar, N. (2021). Global supply chains in the pandemic. Journal of International Economics, 133, 103534.
- Borojo, D. G., Yushi, J., & Miao, M. (2021). The effects of COVID-19 on trade, production, environmental quality and its implications for green economy. Journal of Economic Studies.
- Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G., Reinsel, G., & Ljung, G. (2016). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
- Cao, L., Li, T., Wang, R., & Zhu, J. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on China’s agricultural trade. China Agricultural Economic Review, 13(1), 1-21.
- Chenarides, L., Richards, T. J., & Rickard, B. (2021). COVID-19 impact on fruit and vegetable markets: One year later. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 69(2), 203-214.
- Dannenberg, P., Fuchs, M., Riedler, T., & Wiedemann, C. (2020). Digital Transition by COVID-19 Pandemic? The German Food Online Retail. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 111(3), 543-560.
- Deconinck, K., Avery, E., & Jackson, L. A. (2020). Food Supply Chains and Covid-19: Impacts and Policy Lessons. EuroChoices, 19(3), 34-39.
- Du, J., & Shepotylo, O. (2021). UK trade in the time of COVID-19: A review. The World Economy, 45(5), 1409-1446.
- Duan, H., Bao, Q., Tian, K., Wang, S., Yang, C., & Cai, Z. (2021). The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China’s economy. China Economic Review, 67, 101606.
- Đukić, A., Štaka, M., & Drašković, D. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the macroeconomic aggregates of the European Union. Economics, 9(2), 91-108.
- Dumanska, I., Hrytsyna, L., Kharun, O., & Matviiets, O. (2021). E-commerce and m-commerce as global trends of international trade caused by the covid-19 pandemic. WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development, 17, 386-397.
- Durbin, J., & Koopman, S. J. (2001). Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Espitia, A., Mattoo, A., Rocha, N., & Winkler, D. (2021). Pandemic trade: COVID-19, remote work and global value chains (Policy Research Working Paper No. 9508). World Bank.
- Evenett, S., Fiorini, M., Fritz, J., Hoekman, B., Lukaszuk, P., Rocha, N., Ruta, M., Santi, F., & Shingal, A. (2020). Trade policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis: Evidence from a new data set (Policy Research Working Paper No. 9498). World Bank.
- Ferrari, C., Persico, L., & Tei, A. (2022). Covid-19 and seaborne trade: The Italian perspective. Research in Transportation Economics, 93, 101162.
- Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2021a). Impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains. Developing Economies, 59(2), 154-177.
- Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2021b). Impacts of lockdown policies on international trade. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2), 124-141.
- Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2021c). The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 60, 101135.
- Hylleberg, S., Engle, R., Granger, C., & Yoo, B. (1990). Seasonal integration and cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 44(1-2), 215-238.
- Ihle, R., Rubin, O. D., Bar-Nahum, Z., & Jongeneel, R. (2020). Imperfect food markets in times of crisis: economic consequences of supply chain disruptions and fragmentation for local market power and urban vulnerability. Food Security, 12(4), 727-734.
- INFOSTAT. (n.d.). Main Page.
- Jomthanachai, S., Wong, W., Soh, K., & Lim, C. (2022). A global trade supply chain vulnerability in COVID-19 pandemic: An assessment metric of risk and resilience-based efficiency of CoDEA method. Research in Transportation Economics, 93, 101166.
- Li, C., & Lin, X. (2021). COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss. Journal of Asian Economics, 75, 101327.
- Mallory, M. L. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on medium-term export prospects for soybeans, corn, beef, pork, and poultry. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(1), 292-303.
- Michail, N. A., & Melas, K. D. (2022). Covid-19 and the energy trade: Evidence from tanker trade routes. Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 38(2), 51-60.
- Milea, C. (2020). Consequences of COVID-19 on the International Trade in Goods and Services: Forecasts, Developments, Restrictions. Financial Studies, 4, 29-40.
- Ngatno, & Prihatiningsih, A. E. (2021). Analysis of Indonesia’s Exports & Imports in the Asian Region: Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 11(11), 923-937.
- Obayelu, A. E., Edewor, S. E., & Ogbe, A. O. (2021). Trade effects, policy responses and opportunities of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 14(1), 44-59.
- Ongan, S., & Gocer, I. (2022). Japan-US bilateral commodity-level trade and trade policy-related uncertainty under the COVID-19 pandemic: The nonlinear ARDL model. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55, 1397-1418.
- Rose, A., Walmsley, T., & Wei, D. (2021). Spatial transmission of the economic impacts of COVID-19 through international trade. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 14(2), 169-196.
- Stojanov, M. (2021). Impact of the COVID-10 Pandemic on the Retail Trade in Bulgaria. E-Journal Dialog, 1, 36-49.
- Vidya, C. T., & Prabheesh, K. P. (2020). Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade Networks. Emerging Markets, Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2408-2421.
- Wittwer, G., & Anderson, K. (2021). Covid-19 and global beverage markets: Implications for wine. Journal of Wine Economics, 16(2), 117-130.
- Xu, L., Shi, J., Chen, J., & Li, L. (2021). Estimating the effect of COVID-19 epidemic on shipping trade: An empirical analysis using panel data. Marine Policy, 133, 104768.
- Zagashvili, V. S. (2021). International Trade in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic. World Economy and International Relations, 65(10), 15-23.
- Zhang, W., Dawei, W., Majeed, M. T., & Sohail, S. (2022). COVID-19 and international trade: insights and policy challenges in China and USA. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 35(1), 1991-2002.
- Zlatinov, D. (2018). Tema na fokus: Deset godini ot nachaloto na finansovo-ikinomicheskata kriza – pouki i neobhodimi reformi. In V. Jotsov (Ed.), Ikonomichesko Razvitie i Politiki v Bulgaria: Ocenki i Ochakvania (pp. 115-150). Sofia: Goreks Pres. (In Bulgarian).
-
Monetary access and survival of small and medium-sized enterprises in South Africa post-COVID-19 era
Thabiso Sthembiso Msomi ,
Nontokozo Grace Ngcobo
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(3).2023.28
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 21, 2023 Issue #3 pp. 351-360 Views: 240 Downloads: 89 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges to the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in South Africa, particularly in accessing necessary funding for their daily operations. This study aimed to assess the relationship between monetary access and survival of SMEs in South Africa in the post-COVID-19 era. Quantitative methods were employed to collect data from a sample of 321 SMEs in South Africa, selected through purposive technique. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS, with linear regression and Pearson’s correlation analysis determining the impact of independent factors on the dependent variable. The findings revealed a notable positive correlation between monetary access and the survival of SMEs in the post-COVID-19 era. Specifically, increased access to financial resources was associated with improved survival rates for SMEs. Furthermore, limited financial access hindered the range of services SMEs could provide and restricted their overall performance. These findings emphasize the critical importance of policymakers regularly evaluating and revising their policy actions to address the challenges SMEs face in accessing finances. By adopting effective measures to enhance monetary access for SMEs, policymakers can support their survival and enable them to thrive in the post-COVID-19 era. Finally, this study underscores the significance of monetary access for SMEs’ survival in South Africa following the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the need for policy interventions that alleviate SMEs’ difficulties in obtaining funding, enabling them to contribute significantly to economic growth and development.
