Assessing the impact of transparency in asset recovery on public trust: Evidence from Kazakhstan

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The relevance of this study stems from the global challenge of illicit capital flight and the urgent need to strengthen public trust in state institutions in countries pursuing anti-corruption reforms, particularly Kazakhstan. There is a critical need to evaluate the effectiveness of transparency mechanisms as a factor in legitimizing state policy. The study aims to assess whether transparency in asset recovery processes contributes to strengthening public trust in Kazakhstan’s state institutions, using evidence from public opinion, expert assessments, and media analysis. To achieve this goal, in 2023 a mixed-methods design was applied, combining a sociological survey (N = 1,383 respondents across all regions), 15 in-depth interviews with experts from government, academia, and civil society, and a content analysis of more than 300,000 media and social media mentions from 2022 to 2023. The results indicate a low level of perceived transparency of the Asset Recovery Committee, with an average score of 1.61 on a 3-point scale, which is statistically below the “partially transparent” level (t-test, p < 0.05). Correlation analysis identified a strong positive relationship (r = 0.793) between public awareness of illicit capital outflows and knowledge of the Committee’s functions. SWOT and PEST analyses revealed structural, legal, and technological barriers to ensuring transparency in asset recovery processes. The study concludes that a balanced approach to information disclosure – respecting investigative confidentiality while enabling public oversight – is essential for building trust. The findings provide practical guidance for policymakers in improving transparency mechanisms, enhancing anti-corruption reforms, and strengthening public administration in Kazakhstan.

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    • Figure 1. Demographic profile of survey respondents (N = 1,383)
    • Figure 2. Participants of the expert survey
    • Figure 3. Number of mentions in Google Kazakhstan by keywords “Return of illegally withdrawn capital” (77 mentions on Google)
    • Figure 4. Frequency of mentions related to asset recovery (YouScan data)
    • Figure 5. Sentiment analysis of public discourse on asset recovery (YouScan)
    • Figure 6. Tone of publications in messengers related to asset recovery (BrandAnalytics)
    • Figure 7. Geographic distribution of asset recovery discussions (BrandAnalytics)
    • Figure 8. Engagement by platform type (social networks vs. messengers)
    • Figure 9. Public awareness of illicit asset withdrawal
    • Figure 10. Awareness of the Asset Recovery Committee and its functions
    • Figure 11. Perceived transparency of the Committee
    • Figure 12. Citizens’ preference for receiving information
    • Figure 13. Comparison of the expected transparency level (benchmark = 2.00) and the actual average score from the survey (1.61)
    • Figure 14. Correlation between awareness and institutional knowledge
    • Table 1. Thematic summary of expert interview responses
    • Table 2. SWOT analysis data
    • Table 3. PEST analysis data
    • Conceptualization
      Nurzhan Yessenzholov, Assel Kenzhetayeva, Ainur Ishimgaliyeva, Alfiya Kalkhanova, Maira Dyussembekova, Nurzhan Kuandykov, Aisulu Nurkey
    • Formal Analysis
      Nurzhan Yessenzholov, Ainur Ishimgaliyeva, Maira Dyussembekova, Nurzhan Kuandykov, Aisulu Nurkey
    • Methodology
      Nurzhan Yessenzholov, Alfiya Kalkhanova, Nurzhan Kuandykov
    • Project administration
      Nurzhan Yessenzholov
    • Supervision
      Nurzhan Yessenzholov, Maira Dyussembekova
    • Validation
      Nurzhan Yessenzholov, Aisulu Nurkey
    • Writing – original draft
      Nurzhan Yessenzholov
    • Investigation
      Assel Kenzhetayeva, Ainur Ishimgaliyeva
    • Visualization
      Assel Kenzhetayeva, Alfiya Kalkhanova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Assel Kenzhetayeva, Ainur Ishimgaliyeva, Alfiya Kalkhanova, Maira Dyussembekova, Nurzhan Kuandykov, Aisulu Nurkey
    • Resources
      Ainur Ishimgaliyeva