Regional differentiation of higher education outcomes and graduate employment: Evidence from Kazakhstan

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Despite the growth of investments in higher education and innovative infrastructure in Kazakhstan, institutional and regional differences continue to shape heterogeneous outcomes in graduate employment. This study aims to assess the impact of higher education on the economic development and employment of graduates in Kazakhstan, while accounting for regional differences. The empirical research base is formed using official and publicly available statistical data from the Bureau of National Statistics and other government agencies of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2000–2024. The study employs panel data econometric methods, including fixed-effects models and extended specifications. The results of the analysis show that investments in fixed assets per capita are positively and statistically significantly related to the level of gross regional product (β = 0.2855; p < 0.01), while average wages do not have a statistically significant effect (p = 0.941). The higher education index and the level of urbanization have negative and statistically significant coefficients (p < 0.05), and innovation activity shows a positive effect only in alternative model specifications. The results obtained emphasize the importance of considering the institutional and spatial characteristics of regions when forming management policies in the field of higher education, youth employment, and regional economic development.

Acknowledgments
This paper has been funded by the Science Committee MSHE RK (Grant “Modernization of the quality assurance system of higher education in Kazakhstan based on digitalization: development of approaches, mechanisms and information base” BR24992974).

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    • Figure 1. Analytical framework of the study
    • Figure 2. Dynamics of average GRP across regions of Kazakhstan for 2004–2024
    • Table 1. Description of variables used in the analysis
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics
    • Table 3. Fixed-effects regression results for regional economic development
    • Table 4. Fixed-effects model with lagged innovation variable for regional economic development
    • Table 5. Alternative fixed-effects regression model for regional economic development
    • Table 6. Summary of hypothesis testing
    • Table 7. Regional development clusters and higher education context
    • Table 8. Higher education and labor market characteristics by regional clusters
    • Conceptualization
      Anel Kireyeva, Gulbakhyt Olzhebayeva
    • Funding acquisition
      Anel Kireyeva
    • Methodology
      Anel Kireyeva, Ivan Digel
    • Project administration
      Anel Kireyeva
    • Software
      Anel Kireyeva, Ivan Digel
    • Supervision
      Anel Kireyeva
    • Validation
      Anel Kireyeva, Akarys Torebekov, Gulbakhyt Olzhebayeva, Ivan Digel, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Visualization
      Anel Kireyeva, Akarys Torebekov, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Writing – original draft
      Anel Kireyeva, Akarys Torebekov, Gulbakhyt Olzhebayeva, Ivan Digel, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Anel Kireyeva, Akarys Torebekov, Gulbakhyt Olzhebayeva
    • Data curation
      Akarys Torebekov, Gulbakhyt Olzhebayeva, Ivan Digel
    • Formal Analysis
      Akarys Torebekov, Gulbakhyt Olzhebayeva, Ivan Digel, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Resources
      Akarys Torebekov, Ivan Digel, Elvira Nurekenova
    • Investigation
      Gulbakhyt Olzhebayeva, Elvira Nurekenova