Management of budget flows under martial law

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Managing budget flows under martial law is important to ensure the security and financial stability of the state, helping to mobilize the necessary resources and concentrate them on financing key needs. This paper aims to identify and outline possible measures to balance the movement of budget flows in order to harmonize them with the goals of state policy in the field of national security. The movement of budget flows of income and expenses was assessed, and trends and changes were identified using economic and statistical methods. The assessment results confirmed the need for reasonable planning of budget flows in the context of the impact of unforeseen military events on the process of budget execution in terms of revenues and expenditures, which leads to failure to meet expenditure indicators, causes a lack of financial resources and an increase in the budget deficit. One of these measures is the improvement of budget planning, which is based on the analysis, detection, and assessment of the probability of occurrence and countering the risks related to the state’s financial system. Correlation-regression analysis confirmed the growing dependence of revenues on official transfers from the EU, foreign governments, international organizations, donor institutions, and government bodies. The results obtained are basic for developing measures to balance incoming and outgoing budget flows under martial law. They provide for the obligation to create a financial support system (including international financial aid) while strengthening state financial control measures for the timely, targeted, effective direction of budget flows, including for the security and defense of the state.

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    • Figure 1. Revenues and expenditures of the State Budget of Ukraine, UAH million
    • Figure 2. The volume of revenues of the State Budget of Ukraine under the influence of transfers from the EU, foreign governments, international organizations, donor institutions, and government bodies
    • Figure 3. The coefficient of elasticity of revenues in the State Budget of Ukraine from transfers from the EU, foreign governments, international organizations, donor institutions, and government bodies
    • Figure 4. State and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine and the cost of servicing it, UAH billion
    • Table 1. Planned and implemented indicators of the State Budget of Ukraine
    • Table 2. Revenues, expenditures, and deficit of the State Budget of Ukraine
    • Table 3. Indicators of revenues of the State Budget of Ukraine and transfers from the EU, foreign governments, international organizations, donor institutions, and government bodies
    • Table 4. State and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine and expenditures for its maintenance, UAH billion
    • Table 5. Volumes of budget expenditures in the USA, France, Germany, and Ukraine
    • Conceptualization
      Kateryna Romenska
    • Data curation
      Kateryna Romenska, Valentyna Samoday
    • Formal Analysis
      Kateryna Romenska, Viktoriia Datsenko
    • Investigation
      Kateryna Romenska
    • Methodology
      Kateryna Romenska, Yurii Puhach, Oksana Dudchyk
    • Resources
      Kateryna Romenska, Viktoriia Datsenko, Oksana Dudchyk
    • Writing – original draft
      Kateryna Romenska
    • Writing – review & editing
      Kateryna Romenska, Viktoriia Datsenko, Valentyna Samoday, Yurii Puhach, Oksana Dudchyk
    • Funding acquisition
      Viktoriia Datsenko, Valentyna Samoday, Yurii Puhach, Oksana Dudchyk
    • Software
      Viktoriia Datsenko, Valentyna Samoday, Yurii Puhach
    • Supervision
      Viktoriia Datsenko, Oksana Dudchyk
    • Project administration
      Valentyna Samoday
    • Visualization
      Valentyna Samoday, Yurii Puhach, Oksana Dudchyk
    • Validation
      Yurii Puhach