Aigul Kosherbayeva

The paper focuses on the analysis of the quality of macroeconomic forecasts, as well as on general issues of the functioning of the system of macroeconomic forecasting in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It provides a comparative analysis of errors of initial and revised macroeconomic forecasts of the real sector of economy indicators. To assess forecast accuracy, the authors use the world’s most widespread measures, such as the mean error and the mean absolute percentage error, as well as official statistical data and records. The overall forecast consistency and congruence of assumptions on the dynamics of indicators of the real sector and fiscal policy are estimated using the basic identities of the System of National Accounts. The paper also considers institutional aspects of the system of macroeconomic forecasting in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The authors conclude that revised forecasts, with the exception of monetary policy indicators, exhibit a smaller error, which can indicate a need for greater coordination of public authorities in the process of preparing forecasts, developing the system of independent assessment of their quality and improving their transparency.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study examines how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Kazakhstan perceive and prioritize global risks within an evolving resource-dependent economy. SMEs play a vital role in Kazakhstan’s economic development but remain highly vulnerable to macroeconomic instability, environmental shocks, and geopolitical uncertainty. The study aims to explore SMEs’ perceptions of global risks, assess how well these perceptions align with the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) global risk rankings, and identify key issues requiring policy attention.
The paper employs a structured survey and qualitative risk assessment methodology to analyze data collected from 127 SMEs across all 20 regions of Kazakhstan. The survey, conducted in October 2024, included questions on the perceived likelihood and impact of global risks over a 10-year horizon. Risk categories encompassed economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological domains. Respondents assessed each risk on a five-point scale for both probability and severity.
Findings indicate that inflation and labor shortages are perceived as the most critical risks by Kazakh SMEs, followed by environmental concerns such as extreme weather events and resource depletion. Geopolitical and technological risks were considered important but secondary. A risk matrix was developed to visualize the prioritization of these risks and support policy planning.
The results reveal a significant gap between global risk assessments and localized SME perceptions, underscoring the importance of context-specific risk management strategies. Targeted government interventions in workforce development, financial support, and climate resilience are essential to strengthen the adaptive capacity of SMEs facing global challenges.