Herding behavior in the UAE stock markets during COVID-19: Evidence using the CSAD approach
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.23(1).2026.14
-
Article InfoVolume 23 2026, Issue #1, pp. 186-200
- 17 Views
-
2 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of the article: Research Article
Herding behavior often emerges in uncertain market conditions, when investors, confronted with limited or ambiguous information, tend to imitate their peers’ actions instead of relying on their own analytical assessments. This follow-on herd mentality phenomenon engenders analogous trading behavior among market participants, potentially undermining market efficiency. During times of increased volatility, such behavioral patterns become more noticeable, which has a substantial impact on asset values and skews the efficiency of financial markets. This study explores herding in the UAE stock markets during the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). Using daily data from January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2021, the Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD) model is implemented in static and dynamic forms to explore nonlinear and evolving aspects of investor behavior. The analysis indicates that during the initial months of the pandemic, clear evidence of herding emerged in the Dubai Financial Market (γ₃ = –3.087; p < 0.05), whereas the Abu Dhabi Exchange did not display statistically meaningful signs of such behavior. This contrast highlights how herding behaviors are not uniform across markets; they are shaped by factors such as institutional structures, liquidity levels, and the overall composition of traders. The results offer valuable implications for regulators, policymakers, and large investors, providing insights into how behavioral patterns can affect market resilience in emerging markets. Moreover, the study’s findings highlight the importance of timely disclosure and targeted investor awareness initiatives in reducing irrational reactions during periods of distress or crisis.
Acknowledgment
We are grateful to our co-authors for their invaluable contributions and collaboration in this research. A special thanks to the young independent researchers who are also the co-authors for their dedication and efforts in data collection and analysis, which have significantly enriched this study. We also appreciate the support provided by our institutions and the insightful feedback from our peers and reviewers.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G41, G14, G15
-
References63
-
Tables3
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. CSAD rolling window analysis of herd behavior in Abu Securities Exchange (ADX)
- Figure 2. CSAD rolling window analysis of herd behavior in the Dubai Financial Market (DFM)
-
- Table 1. Stock markets of the United Arab Emirates
- Table 2. Descriptive statistics for Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and Dubai Financial Market (DFM)
- Table 3. Estimates of herding behavior
-
- Abdeldayem, M. M., & Al Dulaimi, S. H. (2020). Investors’ herd behavior related to the pandemic-risk reflected on the GCC stock markets. Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci / Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, 38(2), 563-584.
- Aharon, D. Y. (2021). Uncertainty, fear and herding behavior: Evidence from size-ranked portfolios. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 22(3), 320-337.
- Albaity, M., Mallek, R. S., & Mustafa, H. (2022). Bank Stock Return Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Investor Sentiment in MENA Countries. Risks, 10(2), 0-15.
- Alexakis, C., Chantziaras, A., Economou, F., Eleftheriou, K., & Grose, C. (2023). Animal Behavior in Capital markets: Herding formation dynamics, trading volume, and the role of COVID-19 pandemic. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 67(September 2022), 101946.
- Al-Khazali, O., & Mirzaei, A. (2017). Stock market anomalies, market efficiency and the adaptive market hypothesis: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. Applied Economics, 49(18), 1794-1807.
- Ampofo, R. T., Aidoo, E. N., Ntiamoah, B. O., Frimpong, O., & Sasu, D. (2023). An empirical investigation of COVID-19 effects on herding behaviour in USA and UK stock markets using a quantile regression approach. Journal of Economics and Finance, 47(2), 517-540.
- Antweiler, W., & Frank, M. Z. (2004). Is all that talk just noise? The information content of internet stock message boards. The Journal of Finance, 59(3), 1259-1294.
- Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
- Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 742-758.
- Balcilar, M., Demirer, R., & Hammoudeh, S. (2013). Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 23(1), 295-321.
- Balcilar, M., Demirer, R., & Hammoudeh, S. (2014). What drives herding in oil-rich, developing stock markets? Relative roles of own volatility and global factors. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 29, 418-440.
- Banerjee, A. V. (1992). A simple model of herd behavior. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(3), 797-817.
- Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Wurgler, J. (2005). Comovement. Journal of Financial Economics, 75(2), 283-317.
- Bikhchandani, S., & Sharma, S. (2000). Herd behavior in financial markets: A review. IMF Staff Papers, 47(3), 279-310.
- Blasco, N., Corredor, P., & Ferreruela, S. (2012). Does herding affect volatility? Implications for the Spanish stock market. Quantitative Finance, 12(2), 311-327.
- Bogdan, S., Suštar, N., & Draženović, B. O. (2022). Herding Behavior in Developed, Emerging, and Frontier European Stock Markets during COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(9).
- Bouri, E., & Roubaud, D. (2019). Herding behaviour in cryptocurrencies. Finance Research Letters, 29, 216-221.
- Bouri, E., Demirer, R., Gupta, R., & Nel, J. (2021). Covid-19 pandemic and investor herding in international stock markets. Risks, 9(9).
- Brahmana, R. K., Hashmi, M. A., Abdullah, & Yau, J. T. H. (2023). Herding Behavior in Volatile Market Regimes: an in-Depth Analysis of Coins, Tokens, Pandemic, Penny, and Pricey Cryptocurrencies. International Journal of Business and Society, 24(2), 746-760.
- Cakan, E., Demirer, R., Gupta, R., & Marfatia, H. A. (2019). Oil speculation and herding behavior in emerging stock markets. Journal of Economics and Finance, 43(1), 44-56.
- Chang, E. C., Cheng, J. W., & Khorana, A. (2000). An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10), 1651-1679.
- Chiang, T. C., & Zheng, D. (2010). An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(8), 1911-1921.
- Christie, W. G., & Huang, R. D. (1995). Following the Pied Piper: Do Individual Returns Herd around the Market? Financial Analysts Journal, 51(4), 31-37.
- Da, Z., Engelberg, J., & Gao, P. (2015). The sum of all FEARS investor sentiment and asset prices. Review of Financial Studies, 28(1), 1-32.
- Dash, S. R., & Maitra, D. (2022). The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, investor sentiment, and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 62(May), 101712.
- Demirer, R., Leggio, K. B., & Lien, D. (2019). Herding and flash events: Evidence from the 2010 Flash Crash. Finance Research Letters, 31, 476-479.
- Devenow, A., & Welch, I. (1996). Rational herding in financial economics. European Economic Review, 40(3-5), 603-615.
- Dhall, R., & Singh, B. (2020). The COVID-19 Pandemic and Herding Behaviour: Evidence from India’s Stock Market. Millennial Asia, 11(3), 366-390.
- Economou, F., Kostakis, A., & Philippas, N. (2011). Cross-country effects in herding behaviour: Evidence from four south European markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 21(3), 443-460.
- Espinosa-Méndez, C., & Arias, J. (2021). COVID-19 effect on herding behaviour in European capital markets. Finance Research Letters, 38(June 2020), 1-6.
- Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
- Fang, H., Chung, C. P., Lee, Y. H., & Yang, X. (2021). The Effect of COVID-19 on Herding Behavior in Eastern European Stock Markets. Frontiers in Public Health, 9(July), 1-9.
- Fei, F., & Zhang, J. (2023). Chinese stock market volatility and herding behavior asymmetry during the COVID-19 pandemic. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(1).
- Ferreruela, S., & Mallor, T. (2021). Herding in the bad times: The 2008 and COVID-19 crises. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 58(August), 101531.
- Filip, A., Pochea, M., & Pece, A. (2015). The Herding Behaviour of Investors in the CEE Stocks Markets. Procedia Economics and Finance, 32(15), 307-315.
- Froot, K. A., Scharstein, D. S., & Stein, J. C. (1992). Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation. The Journal of Finance, 47(4), 1461-1484.
- Hasan, I., & Tunaru, R. D. V. (2023). Herding behavior and systemic risk in global stock markets. Journal of Empirical Finance, 73(September 2023), 107-133.
- Javaira, Z., Sahar, N. U., Hashmi, S. D., & Naz, I. (2023). Volatility and Dynamic Herding in Energy Sector of Developed Markets During COVID-19: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, 17(1), 115-138.
- Kenourgios, D., Umar, Z., & Lemonidi, P. (2020). On the effect of credit rating announcements on sovereign bonds: International evidence. International Economics, 163, 58-71.
- Kizys, R., Tzouvanas, P., & Donadelli, M. (2021). From COVID-19 herd immunity to investor herding in international stock markets: The role of government and regulatory restrictions. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74(December 2020), 101663.
- Kumar, B., & Kumar, A. (2022). Exploring Herding Behaviour in Indian Equity Market during COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact of Volatility and Government Response. Millennial Asia, 13(3), 513-531.
- Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. The Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
- Luu, Q. T., & Luong, H. T. T. (2020). Herding behavior in emerging and frontier stock markets during pandemic influenza panics. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(9), 147-158.
- Mishra, P. K., & Mishra, S. K. (2023). Do Banking and Financial Services Sectors Show Herding Behaviour in Indian Stock Market Amid COVID-19 Pandemic? Insights from Quantile Regression Approach. Millennial Asia, 14(1), 54-84.
- Organization, W. H. (n.d.). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
- Raafat, R. M., Chater, N., & Frith, C. (2009). Herding in humans. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 13(10), 420-428.
- Seghers, B. H. (1974). Schooling behavior in the guppy (Poecilia reticulata): An evolutionary response to predation. Evolution, 28(3), 486-489.
- Shahzad, M. F., Xu, S., Rehman, O. ul, & Javed, I. (2023). Impact of gamification on green consumption behavior integrating technological awareness, motivation, enjoyment and virtual CSR. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 1-18.
- Shear, F., Ashraf, B. N., & Sadaqat, M. (2021). Are investors’ attention and uncertainty aversion the risk factors for stock markets? International evidence from the COVID-19 crisis. Risks, 9(1), 1-15.
- Sibande, X., Gupta, R., Demirer, R., & Bouri, E. (2023). Investor Sentiment and (Anti) Herding in the Currency Market: Evidence from Twitter Feed Data. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 24(1), 56-72.
- Smales, L. A. (2021). Investor attention and global market returns during the COVID-19 crisis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 73(June 2020), 101616.
- Stavroyiannis, S., & Babalos, V. (2017). Herding, Faith-Based Investments and the Global Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Static and Dynamic Models. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 18(4), 478-489.
- Sun, Y., Wu, M., Zeng, X., & Peng, Z. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market: Sentimental or substantial? Finance Research Letters, 38(October 2020), 101838.
- Teraji, S. (2003). Herd behavior and the quality of opinions. Journal of Socio-Economics, 32(6), 661-673.
- Turak, N. (2020). First Middle East cases of coronavirus confirmed in the UAE. CNBC.
- Ullah, S. (2023). Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Markets: a Global Perspective. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 14(2), 982-1003.
- Vidya, C. T., Ravichandran, R., & Deorukhkar, A. (2023). Exploring the effect of Covid-19 on herding in Asian financial markets. MethodsX, 10(December 2022), 101961.
- Wen, C., Yang, Z., & Jiang, R. (2022). Herding behavior in Hong Kong stock market during the COVID-19 period: a systematic detection approach. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 20(2), 159-170.
- Xu, H. C., & Zhou, W. X. (2018). A weekly sentiment index and the cross-section of stock returns. Finance Research Letters, 27, 135-139.
- Yoon, J., & Oh, G. (2022). Investor herding behavior in social media sentiment. Frontiers in Physics, 10(October), 1-16.
- Yousaf, I., & Alokla, J. (2023). Herding behaviour in the Islamic bank market: evidence from the Gulf region. Review of Behavioral Finance, 15(5), 617-633.
- Yousaf, I., Ali, S., Bouri, E., & Dutta, A. (2021). Herding on Fundamental/Nonfundamental Information During the COVID-19 Outbreak and Cyber-Attacks: Evidence from the Cryptocurrency Market. SAGE Open, 11(3).
- Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y., & Demir, E. (2021). Infected markets: Novel coronavirus, government interventions, and stock return volatility around the globe. Finance Research Letters, 35, 101597.


