Ikhtiyor Sharipov

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study aims to empirically examine the dynamic effects of geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and climate policy uncertainty on CO₂ emissions in G7 economies, utilizing annual data from 1990 to 2022. To account for cross-sectional dependence and parameter heterogeneity, the analysis employs a cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model. Diagnostic tests confirm significant cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity among the variables. All variables are integrated of order one, I (1), confirmed by unit root tests. In contrast, the cointegration test provides a strong indication of a stable long-run relationship among geopolitical risk, policy uncertainty measures, and CO₂ emissions. The outcomes show that a 1% rise in the geopolitical risk index leads to a statistically significant long-run rise of 0.042% in per capita CO₂ emissions. In addition, a 1% increase in economic policy uncertainty and climate policy uncertainty is associated with long-run increases of 0.028% and 0.015%, respectively. These results remain robust across alternative estimators. Overall, the evidence suggests that heightened geopolitical risk and policy-related uncertainties significantly exacerbate environmental degradation in G7 economies, highlighting the necessity for strategies that improve stability, reduce uncertainty, and encourage renewable energy adoption as part of a long-term environmental strategy.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study examines the long-term and short-term dynamic interactions between PM2.5 pollution and its anthropogenic determinants, namely industrial activity, urbanization, economic growth, total energy use, and renewable energy utilization, across five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan) from 1992 to 2023. Preliminary tests validate pronounced cross-sectional dependence and notable slope heterogeneity, substantiating the application of the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model. The Westerlund cointegration results demonstrate a strong long-term equilibrium relationship. The long-term CS-ARDL estimations indicate that industrial activity is the primary driver of PM2.5 pollution, followed by total energy consumption. The analysis reveals evidence supporting the upward-sloping segment of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), as economic growth significantly elevates PM2.5 levels. In contrast, the squared GDP term is insignificant, suggesting the absence of a turning point in pollution reduction. Renewable energy consumption has a negligible moderating effect. The Error Correction Term is negative and statistically significant, indicating that approximately 24.5% of deviations from the long-term equilibrium are corrected each year. The findings indicate that environmental stability in Central Asia necessitates a strategic transformation of industrial and energy policy, underscoring the importance of coordinated regional initiatives to modernize grids and promote green industrial practices to decouple economic expansion from particulate pollution.