Islamic banking and sectoral economic growth: Evidence from Indonesia

The paper investigates discretionary budget expenditure and determines its role in the system of regulation of country’s socio-economic development. In a very difficult political and socio-economic situation, Ukraine faces an urgent need to finda balance between the amount of functions performed by the state and the level of their financial support. The analysis of the State Budget of Ukraine expenditure according to the functional classification in 2014–2017 has been carried out. In particular, the discretionary budget expenditures (on state functions, economic activity, defense budget expenditures, budget expenditure on public order, security and judiciary; environmental protection, housing and utilities) are carefully analyzed. The purpose of the article is to study trends in financing discretionary budget expenditure and determine their impact on the socio-economic development of a country. Discretionary budget expenditures are the study object. It is determined that socio-economic development of a country requires government to apply progressive forms, methods and principles of expenditure management between the budget system levels. This need is due to the objective necessity to achieve sustainable development of economy and population welfare. The main problems that reduce budget discretionary expenditure effectiveness in the current conditions are investigated and the main directions to improve their financing are offered. The obtained results indicate the need to revise the funding of discretionary budget expenditures depending on the state policy priorities.

This paper examines the economic relationships between oil price volatility and socially-economic development of 14 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) using the annual panel data for the period 1990–2014 obtained from the World Bank (WB) statistical data sets. Hausman specification test has been performed to choose the method of panel data analysis, and the results were in favor of fixed effects estimation. The main findings indicate the direct relationship between economic growth and oil price volatility. The research supports the hypothesis that an increase in crude oil prices is positively related to GDP, and a 10% increase in oil prices correlates with 0.6-4% GDP improvements. Structural changes in employment in favor of service sector are negatively correlated with GDP per capita. Changes in GDP structure in favor of oil rents on 10% lead to the shrinking of GDP on 1%. Life expectancy at birth, as an indirect indicator of health, positively influences the economic growth indicators and an improvement in life expectancy on one percentage leads on average to 1% growth in GDP and 0.5-1.33% growth in GDP per capita. Energy efficiency improvements are positive drivers of GDP values at OPEC, and our findings suggest that a 10% increase at GDP per unit of energy use leads to 3% increase of GDP itself. The study recommends investing in energy efficiency, human capital, and capital formation to guarantee long-run economic development and prosperity of OPEC counties.

One of the pressing problems in the modern development of the world financial system is an excessive increase in state debt, which has many negative consequences for the financial system of any country. At the same time, special attention should be paid to developing an effective state debt management system based on its forecast values. The paper is aimed at determining the level of persistence and forecasting future values of state debt in the short term using time series analysis, i.e., an ARIMA model. The study covers the time series of Ukraine’s state debt data for the period from December 2004 to November 2020. A visual analysis of the dynamics of state debt led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in debt over the past six years. Using the Hurst exponent, the paper provides the calculated value of the level of persistence in time series data. Based on the obtained indicator, a conclusion was made on the confirmation of expediency to use autoregressive models for predicting future dynamics of Ukraine’s state debt. Using the EViews software, the procedure for forecasting Ukraine’s state debt by utilizing the ARIMA model was illustrated, i.e., the series was tested for stationarity, the time series of monthly state debt data were converted to stationary, the model parameters were determined and, as a result, the most optimal specification of the ARIMA model was selected.