Long-run and short-run determinants of CO₂ emissions in African countries: Roles of globalization, renewable energy, and growth

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study investigates the long-run and short-run determinants of CO₂ emissions in African countries, with a particular focus on the roles of globalization, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth for 24 African countries over 1990–2021. Using a panel ARDL framework with PMG, MG, and DFE estimators, we estimate both short-run and long-run relationships and conduct co-integration, cross-section dependence, and robustness checks. The PMG long-run estimates confirm an Environmental Kuznets Curve: GDP has a positive long-run elasticity of 0.237 with CO₂ (p < 0.01), while its square indicates a turning point; renewable energy reduces emissions (long-run elasticity −0.158, p < 0.01); globalization (KOF index) is associated with higher emissions (elasticity 0.350, p < 0.01). Non-renewable energy results are sensitive to estimator choice. Error-correction terms are negative and significant, indicating adjustment to the long-run equilibrium. Results are robust to alternative specifications and subsamples. Policy implications include accelerating renewable deployment and adopting trade and investment policies that favor cleaner technologies to align growth with climate objectives.

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    • Table 1. Summary statistics
    • Table 2. Pesaran CD test for cross-sectional dependence
    • Table 3. Panel unit root tests (CIPS)
    • Table 4. Cointegration tests (Pedroni, PDOLS, Westerlund)
    • Table 5. Hausman test
    • Table 6. Long-run PMG, MG, and DFE estimates
    • Table 7. Short-run PMG, MG, and DFE estimates
    • Conceptualization
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Data curation
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Formal Analysis
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Funding acquisition
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Investigation
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Methodology
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Project administration
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Resources
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Software
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Supervision
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Validation
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Visualization
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Writing – original draft
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi
    • Writing – review & editing
      Walid Hadhri, Mouna Mouelhi