Adefemi A. Obalade

This study examines the adaptive behavior of South African Rand (ZAR) exchange rate against its major trading partners, the US Dollar (USD) and the Chinese Yuan (CNY) over the period 1999-2020. The study uses a rolling parametric linear variance ratio (VR) test, nonparametric linear runs test, and non-linear Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (BDS) test to determine time-varying predictability and regression analyses to assess the effect of market conditions. The results show that the foreign exchange market was found to be inefficient based on the VR tests, but efficient with very few windows of inefficiency based on the runs test and BDS test. In addition, apart from the GDP, none of the market conditions studied is associated with non-parametric linear and nonlinear predictabilities. The study draws two main conclusions. Firstly, the South African foreign exchange market is adaptively efficient. Secondly, foreign exchange market efficiency is primarily driven by the level of economic growth. Practically, it will be difficult for investors to exploit the few windows of predictability in the South African foreign exchange market by focusing mainly on the market conditions studied.

Political risk is prevalent in Nigeria and tends to influence business outcomes and the stability of the banking system. As a result of this study, it was determined whether political risk matters to the performance of the banking sector in Nigeria. The effect of political risk on different banks’ performance measures, such as return on assets, return on invested capital, credit risk and stock price, were examined in a panel of 12 selected commercial banks for the period 2006–2018. Data was analyzed using a two-stage system of generalized method of moments. The results provided evidence that the effect of political risk on bank performance depends on the performance proxies. Specifically, political risk was found to be negatively related to banks’ returns on invested capital and positively related to deteriorating credit risk. Hence, it can be concluded that political risk induces poor banking system performance in Nigeria. The study provides a critical insight into the management of a country’s political systems in terms of their potential to create unfavorable conditions for banking systems to thrive.

The focus of this study was to assess the contribution of Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs) to ensuring tax compliance among small business owners in the Arusha Region in Tanzania. The study was motivated by the fact that the government of Tanzania has invested effort and funds to ensure that revenue adequately supports development projects. Regardless of effort, there is continued reliance on external sources of funds to support development projects. This poses a question on how the introduction of EFDs would increase tax compliance and eventually impact the government income for development projects. The main objective of the study was to determine whether the rate of using EFDs, the level of transparency, fairness in tax procedures, and the perceived audit effectiveness affect the level of tax compliance. Data was analyzed using descriptive procedures, One Way ANOVA, Chi-Square, and ordinal regression. Findings of the study are as follows: First, fairness in tax procedures, the perceived level of transparency and the rate of EFD use had no impact on the level of tax compliance; second, business and EFD use experience, audit effectiveness, and the use of EFDs in tax audits have impacted tax compliance. The study recommends other government departments to consider adopting relevant technology in operational areas where transparency, fairness and compliance are required. The inclusion of other sectors not currently captured by EFD use will be a step in the right direction.

Securitization has been used as a tool for bank funding, liquidity, risk management, and performance for over two decades. However, securitization activities were negatively affected by the recent financial crises, which led to stricter regulations of banks’ off-balance-sheet activities. This study examined the possible impacts of the Basel IV capital requirements on securitization activities and the performance of commercial banks in South Africa if implemented. The study used aggregated financial data of selected South African commercial banks to create a sample representative projection as if the selected banks had implemented the Basel IV capital requirements between 2002 and 2018. The simulated data were analyzed and compared to Basel III data using panel data analysis under certain assumptions, while other conditions held constant. The results revealed that the implementation of the Basel IV capital requirements will have a significant positive impact on securitization activities of commercial banks in South Africa. However, higher capital requirements of Basel IV may have no significant impact on performance of securitizing banks but it can protect banks from securitization exposure.